Trade Jim Johnson to the Tigers

[atomic]

An objective person would say that a sweep by the SUX, considering the pitching match ups, is more likely than one for the O's. To ignore this is to take a swig of something.

The Orioles have played the Red Sox pretty well the last two years. To think that the Red Sox will come into our house and sweep the Orioles in a 4 game series is pretty pessimistic and not very likely to happen.

[FreeWilyMoPena]

Because DET has been toying with the idea of him closing. I think Rondon would be better than Strop, and that would be a help. I am thinking O'Day and Hunter would close and I doubt we would skip a beat with them.

Being better than Strop isn't exactly that difficult to do. And Rondon could easily be another Strop because as bad as Pedro's command is, Rondon's could be worse.

[FreeWilyMoPena]

Maybe, but the objective person would say that 3 of 4 for BOS is more likely than 3 of 4 for the O's. Probable out come is the O's avoiding a sweep. Look at a the pitching matchups. I think a sweep of the SUX would require flying pigs.

Well, a year ago, an objective person would have said that there is no way that the Orioles make the playoffs in 2012.

And technically, pigs can fly with the help of aircraft.

[foxfield]

It's possible I'll win the lottery tomorrow and it's possible I won't; both are contained within the realm of possibilities. Which is the one more likely to happen for the O's v BOS. I take it back, you are drinking something stronger than Kool Ade. The O's will be lucky to avoid a sweep.

Well, this is by definition contrarian thinking and it has its merits. However, in this case it is simply taking a known statistic and falsely applying it to a case that has no analytical accuracy. You are simply allegorically emphasizing your opinion that the Orioles are catching the Boston Red Sox at a bad time and you have every right to have that opinion. You may even be right.

I don't think the Red Sox will sweep, but it is possible.

I think I can even help you change your mind.

The Sox are coming into town in first place and they have been on a roll. The Orioles are playing at home after failing for the umpteenth time to close out on a sweep this year. I seem to remember another time, not that long ago, when the Red Sux were in town in first place and the matchups were entirely in their favor. It was a the best of times, it was the worst of times...

Oh and you're welcome!

[video=youtube;sPNpJX8b-bc]

[jjdman]

Well, this is by definition contrarian thinking and it has its merits. However, in this case it is simply taking a known statistic and falsely applying it to a case that has no analytical accuracy. You are simply allegorically emphasizing your opinion that the Orioles are catching the Boston Red Sox at a bad time and you have every right to have that opinion. You may even be right.

I don't think the Red Sox will sweep, but it is possible.

I think I can even help you change your mind.

The Sox are coming into town in first place and they have been on a roll. The Orioles are playing at home after failing for the umpteenth time to close out on a sweep this year. I seem to remember another time, not that long ago, when the Red Sux were in town in first place and the matchups were entirely in their favor. It was a the best of times, it was the worst of times...

Oh and you're welcome!

[video=youtube;sPNpJX8b-bc]

I never get tired of watching that. :beerchug1:

[FreeWilyMoPena]

Well, this is by definition contrarian thinking and it has its merits. However, in this case it is simply taking a known statistic and falsely applying it to a case that has no analytical accuracy. You are simply allegorically emphasizing your opinion that the Orioles are catching the Boston Red Sox at a bad time and you have every right to have that opinion. You may even be right.

I don't think the Red Sox will sweep, but it is possible.

I think I can even help you change your mind.

The Sox are coming into town in first place and they have been on a roll. The Orioles are playing at home after failing for the umpteenth time to close out on a sweep this year. I seem to remember another time, not that long ago, when the Red Sux were in town in first place and the matchups were entirely in their favor. It was a the best of times, it was the worst of times...

Oh and you're welcome!

[video=youtube;sPNpJX8b-bc]

This is dearly lacking in Gary Thorne screaming uncontrollably.

[El Gordo]

Well, this is by definition contrarian thinking and it has its merits. However, in this case it is simply taking a known statistic and falsely applying it to a case that has no analytical accuracy. You are simply allegorically emphasizing your opinion that the Orioles are catching the Boston Red Sox at a bad time and you have every right to have that opinion. You may even be right.

I don't think the Red Sox will sweep, but it is possible.

I think I can even help you change your mind.

The Sox are coming into town in first place and they have been on a roll. The Orioles are playing at home after failing for the umpteenth time to close out on a sweep this year. I seem to remember another time, not that long ago, when the Red Sux were in town in first place and the matchups were entirely in their favor. It was a the best of times, it was the worst of times...

Oh and you're welcome!

[video=youtube;sPNpJX8b-bc]

I sure hope DD is on the phone looking for some SP and not looking at that video saying to himself, "We did it before we can do it again". I don't recall the O's making the playoffs in 2011. I was hoping they would do so again in 2013. Right now I'm not so sure. This is a big series. If we were sending up Chen, Gonzo, Tillman and Hammel, I'd be a lot more confident.

[Aristotelian]

I can't believe that a thread with the premise that the Orioles should tank the season now has over 100 responses.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Realistic trades at this point in the season, should be centered on the Marlins, Astros, Cubs, and Mets, teams who:

'

Good point, especially since given our situation and very good chance of being in the race at the deadline, it makes far more sense to ask what will be available to help our race and what it will take to bring those upgrades to the O's, rather than what another contender needs to get over the hump and what they'd be willing to give us.

[FreeWilyMoPena]

Realistic trades at this point in the season, should be centered on the Marlins, Astros, Cubs, and Mets, teams who:

1. Know they have no chance this year

2. Are looking to acquire young, low cost players

3. Have something the O's need ?

The Orioles are NOT going to trade Jim Johnson this year while they are mathematically still in the race. Duquette will look for bargains. He doesn't want to trade what it would take to get a TOR guy or even a #2 or #3. A guy like Nolasco is definitely in play because he'd come cheap. He's making 11.5M this year and is a FA after the year. The Marlins will take B prospects for him and maybe even eat some salary. The salary is the sticking point. A guy like Bud Norris is only making 5M this year and has two years of service time left. You'd actually have to give up something to get him. The Cubs signed Edwin Jackson for 4/52M but they paid an 8M signing bonus and the salary is 11M through 2016. I would not be shocked if he was available on the cheap as he's been pretty awful so far this year and is owed a lot of money. Of course, Matt Garza makes even more sense as he's a FA after this year. The Cubs will probably dangle him at the trade deadline to insure the highest return.

I'd take Nolasco for (insert B level prospect) and maybe Norris if the Astros are willing to accept a Schoop for Norris trade. I'd also see what the Phillies want for Cliff Lee and how much of that contract they'd be willing to eat.

[LookinUp]

An objective person would say that the most likely outcome between any two reasonably competitive teams is a split.

If you had a .600 team playing a .400 team there's only a 22% chance of a sweep. If you use the two teams' current winning percentages as a proxy for their talents, the Sox have a 9% chance at a sweep, and the O's a 4%.

Hold on. Did you use the Log5 method for this or do it yourself? Oops, wrong thread.

[FreeWilyMoPena]

I doubt the Philles look to deal Lee, if they do at all, until the deadline. The Phils have a chance to make the playoffs. It would be a PR disaster to trade Lee now.

Schoop for Norris is a realistic start to a discussion. It's possible you could make a straight up trade like that but that's the kind of name (Schoop) that needs to be brought up in reality.

I forgot how dangerous Ruben Amaro Junior can be if his team is still in playoff contention around the trading deadline.

[weams]

I have seen you say this a couple times. Why do you believe it to be true?

Because he did not lose two or three games for us yet. Oh and he throws hard.

[LookinUp]

Maybe, but the objective person would say that 3 of 4 for BOS is more likely than 3 of 4 for the O's. Probable out come is the O's avoiding a sweep. Look at a the pitching matchups. I think a sweep of the SUX would require flying pigs.

Look at each team's last 23 games. Not a huge difference.

[foxfield]

I sure hope DD is on the phone looking for some SP and not looking at that video saying to himself, "We did it before we can do it again". I don't recall the O's making the playoffs in 2011. I was hoping they would do so again in 2013. Right now I'm not so sure. This is a big series. If we were sending up Chen, Gonzo, Tillman and Hammel, I'd be a lot more confident.

Gordo, Gordo, Gordo, what are we gonna go with you. I believe your recollection is correct, the Orioles did not as a point of fact make the playoffs in 2011. Of course, because of the corner the Orioles turned down the stretch and specifically as a result of the work noted above, neither did those terrifying Red Sox. Since the point referenced above the Orioles have been the better team and it is not even close.

I'm sure that last year at this point you were also hopeful that the Orioles were going to be a playoff team, but at the time you were not so sure. After the previous 14 years that is certainly understandable. But these aren't those guys. I'm not drinking Kool Aid, I understand this team is not perfect and I know that to make the playoffs they will either have to pick up the pace or acquire another arm or two. But take a look around. The Orioles are one of the best teams in Baseball, all of it. They are also one of the youngest. This may be the best time since it was originally said by Eddie Murray...."It's great to be young and an Oriole!"

Seriously Gordo, the water is fine, really, come on in!!!!