Example A of why you fire Buck after 3 seasons.

[e16bball]

Regardless of your position on whether JJ should have closed yesterday or should close this weekend, some of this criticism of Buck is just unfounded and completely off base.

Specifically, I'm referring to the folks who are stating or implying that Buck's stubbornness and loyalty to "his guys" causes him to bury his head in the sand and ignore the facts, which is the only reason anyone could possibly continue to hand Jim Johnson the ball after this string of blown saves. Of course, the only problem with that stance is that the "facts" tend to support the idea of letting JJ work through his problems.

Since being installed as the full-time closer at the end of the 2011 season, JJ has basically gone through two rough patches before this last one. Both were much uglier than the problems he had on this past West Coast trip:

July 14-27, 2012: 6.1 IP, 15 Rs, 13 ERs, 18.47 ERA, 3.32 WHIP, 2 Ks, 2 BBs, 1.172 OPSA, 1.33 GB/FB, 4/6 saves

May 14-26, 2013: 5.0 IP, 12 Rs, 12 ERs, 21.60 ERA, 3.20 WHIP, 2 Ks, 3 BBs, 1.413 OPSA, 0.72 GB/FB, 1/5 saves

Two horrendous stretches for JJ. But he responded to those implosions by pulling things together and coming back strong to get the job done:

July 30-End of 2012 Season: 25.0 IP, 1 R, 1 ER, 0.36 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, .449 OPSA, 1.50 GB/FB, 21/21 saves

May 29-August 6, 2013: 26.2 IPs, 5 Rs, 4 ERs, 1.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .587 OPSA, 1.85 GB/FB, 24/26 saves

During both of those (longer) spans over the past two seasons, JJ was MUCH worse than he's been in the last 3 games. He was getting absolutely shelled, and what's more, he was giving up huge run totals that ended games --- at least in these games, he's managed to keep the team in the game by working out of jams to get us to extra innings. And during both of those spans, there were plenty of people calling for his head (first to be replaced by Strop, then to be replaced by O'Day/Hunter). But he came back after those debacles to give us MONTHS of extremely high-quality work.

If you think 3 bad stretches in 2 seasons is too much for a closer, that's fine. I probably agree at this point that JJ needs some less stressful innings while he pulls things back together. But to say Buck is just refusing to face reality at this point is to flatly ignore the incontrovertible FACT that JJ has had much worse spells and rebounded to be excellent almost immediately.

[crawjo]

Last year Showalter was on fire, where every move he made, every button he pushed, seemed to be the right one. This year, not so much. I don't think he's a bad manager by any stretch of the imagination though.

[tntoriole]

Regardless of your position on whether JJ should have closed yesterday or should close this weekend, some of this criticism of Buck is just unfounded and completely off base.

Specifically, I'm referring to the folks who are stating or implying that Buck's stubbornness and loyalty to "his guys" causes him to bury his head in the sand and ignore the facts, which is the only reason anyone could possibly continue to hand Jim Johnson the ball after this string of blown saves. Of course, the only problem with that stance is that the "facts" tend to support the idea of letting JJ work through his problems.

Since being installed as the full-time closer at the end of the 2011 season, JJ has basically gone through two rough patches before this last one. Both were much uglier than the problems he had on this past West Coast trip:

July 14-27, 2012: 6.1 IP, 15 Rs, 13 ERs, 18.47 ERA, 3.32 WHIP, 2 Ks, 2 BBs, 1.172 OPSA, 1.33 GB/FB, 4/6 saves

May 14-26, 2013: 5.0 IP, 12 Rs, 12 ERs, 21.60 ERA, 3.20 WHIP, 2 Ks, 3 BBs, 1.413 OPSA, 0.72 GB/FB, 1/5 saves

Two horrendous stretches for JJ. But he responded to those implosions by pulling things together and coming back strong to get the job done:

July 30-End of 2012 Season: 25.0 IP, 1 R, 1 ER, 0.36 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, .449 OPSA, 1.50 GB/FB, 21/21 saves

May 29-August 6, 2013: 26.2 IPs, 5 Rs, 4 ERs, 1.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .587 OPSA, 1.85 GB/FB, 24/26 saves

During both of those (longer) spans over the past two seasons, JJ was MUCH worse than he's been in the last 3 games. He was getting absolutely shelled, and what's more, he was giving up huge run totals that ended games --- at least in these games, he's managed to keep the team in the game by working out of jams to get us to extra innings. And during both of those spans, there were plenty of people calling for his head (first to be replaced by Strop, then to be replaced by O'Day/Hunter). But he came back after those debacles to give us MONTHS of extremely high-quality work.

If you think 3 bad stretches in 2 seasons is too much for a closer, that's fine. I probably agree at this point that JJ needs some less stressful innings while he pulls things back together. But to say Buck is just refusing to face reality at this point is to flatly ignore the incontrovertible FACT that JJ has had much worse spells and rebounded to be excellent almost immediately.

Good post!

I think the question for me is when does bad closer performance lead to change? The last two World Series champions both changed closers in mid to late season and it worked out pretty well. Giants of 2012 started with Casilla then went to Romo in late August after Casilla had 5 blown saves. 2011 Cardinals ditched their closer, Fernando Salas after two back to back blown saves in August and they went to Jason Motte. 2006 Cardinals had to change closers late in the year due to injury and 2005 White Sox had three different closers during their World Championship year. If your closer is not having a super year like Rivera, 2007 Papelbon, 2008 Brad Lidge or 2010 Brian wison or even like Johnson had last year, then you are probably more likely to win by changing closers if the one you have keeps blowing saves in a pennant chase year.

[Norfolk orioles]

Regardless of your position on whether JJ should have closed yesterday or should close this weekend, some of this criticism of Buck is just unfounded and completely off base.

Specifically, I'm referring to the folks who are stating or implying that Buck's stubbornness and loyalty to "his guys" causes him to bury his head in the sand and ignore the facts, which is the only reason anyone could possibly continue to hand Jim Johnson the ball after this string of blown saves. Of course, the only problem with that stance is that the "facts" tend to support the idea of letting JJ work through his problems.

Since being installed as the full-time closer at the end of the 2011 season, JJ has basically gone through two rough patches before this last one. Both were much uglier than the problems he had on this past West Coast trip:

July 14-27, 2012: 6.1 IP, 15 Rs, 13 ERs, 18.47 ERA, 3.32 WHIP, 2 Ks, 2 BBs, 1.172 OPSA, 1.33 GB/FB, 4/6 saves

May 14-26, 2013: 5.0 IP, 12 Rs, 12 ERs, 21.60 ERA, 3.20 WHIP, 2 Ks, 3 BBs, 1.413 OPSA, 0.72 GB/FB, 1/5 saves

Two horrendous stretches for JJ. But he responded to those implosions by pulling things together and coming back strong to get the job done:

July 30-End of 2012 Season: 25.0 IP, 1 R, 1 ER, 0.36 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, .449 OPSA, 1.50 GB/FB, 21/21 saves

May 29-August 6, 2013: 26.2 IPs, 5 Rs, 4 ERs, 1.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .587 OPSA, 1.85 GB/FB, 24/26 saves

During both of those (longer) spans over the past two seasons, JJ was MUCH worse than he's been in the last 3 games. He was getting absolutely shelled, and what's more, he was giving up huge run totals that ended games --- at least in these games, he's managed to keep the team in the game by working out of jams to get us to extra innings. And during both of those spans, there were plenty of people calling for his head (first to be replaced by Strop, then to be replaced by O'Day/Hunter). But he came back after those debacles to give us MONTHS of extremely high-quality work.

If you think 3 bad stretches in 2 seasons is too much for a closer, that's fine. I probably agree at this point that JJ needs some less stressful innings while he pulls things back together. But to say Buck is just refusing to face reality at this point is to flatly ignore the incontrovertible FACT that JJ has had much worse spells and rebounded to be excellent almost immediately.

Every fact you've posted is meaningless compared to the FACT that he's blown 9 games and is 8/15 in 1 run save chances.

He can't be trusted in close games when it matters. Everything else you've posted "supporting JJ" is useless next to that FACT.

[e16bball]

Every fact you've posted is meaningless compared to the FACT that he's blown 9 games and is 8/15 in 1 run save chances.

He can't be trusted in close games when it matters. Everything else you've posted "supporting JJ" is useless next to that FACT.

Okay. I must have done a poor job of explaining my point. I'll try again and hopefully will do better this time.

Managing a baseball team, like most things in life, is about making decisions moving forward. The past is really only meaningful as a way of projecting how things will happen in the future. As an (admittedly rudimentary) analogy, think of a stock that has recently collapsed as a result of terrible earnings over the past quarter. You might be inclined to think "well, I want no parts of that stock, that company is toast." But what if this particular company has had extremely disappointing quarters before, during which their stock price has plummeted much like it recently has, only to bounce back and post strong earnings the next quarter and see their stock price rebound? Wouldn't it be entirely reasonable to think it could happen again, and that this stock might well be a very wise "buy-low" option? At that point, it's not really blind loyalty to the company that would cause you to purchase their stock --- it's just a willingness to look at the past and use it to project how the company will perform in the future after this poor showing.

Maybe the company WON'T bounce back next quarter like it did in the past. Just as maybe JJ won't pull things back together, as he has in the past. But I don't think someone would be an out and out fool for looking at the past and making the educated guess that it will repeat itself. Which is all I'm saying here. You don't agree with Buck's willingness to trust in JJ's history of righting the ship. You may very well end up being right. But it's not like he's making a decision that is totally unfounded or ridiculous --- there's an entirely valid reason, based on JJ's track record, to believe he's going to straighten things out.

[OnTheBlack]

Hey guys - remember when we had fourteen (14) consecutive losing seasons?

Guess what our record was on August 15th, 2012? 63-53. Our record now: 65-55.

Calm down. We are 2.5 games back for a WC spot.

[Uli2001]

Hey guys - remember when we had fourteen (14) consecutive losing seasons?

Guess what our record was on August 15th, 2012? 63-53. Our record now: 65-55.

Calm down. We are 2.5 games back for a WC spot.

This year's team is underachieving at 10 games over, while last year's team was overachieving at the same spot. I think therein lies the difference in fan reaction.

[Spoonless]

I think a bird is good minimum requirement.

pfffffft

[OnTheBlack]

This year's team is underachieving at 10 games over, while last year's team was overachieving at the same spot. I think therein lies the difference in fan reaction.

I disagree. Perhaps through the ever changing tinted glasses of this message board have we underachieved - but not in reality. How many experts can you point to that had us grabbing a WC spot this year? Compare that to the number of analysts that had us finishing 4th or dead last in the AL East. It is true that last year's team overachieved, but it would be a mistake to say that this team is underachieving based on the expectations of most of the population existing outside of this forum.

[leapinghorsered]

Buck has mismanaged this roster in more ways than just using JJ as his closer. Two examples:

1. No way should Markakis still be batting third in the lineup. Nick is one of my favorite Orioles but he's a singles hitter at this point. You move Davis up and bat him third and AJ fourth, because AJ is the only legitimate protection Davis has in that lineup.

2. Completely absurd to have Roberts, Flaherty and Casilla on the roster. I understand his hands are pretty much tied and he has to play Roberts, however, Casilla can be used in the utility role, there is simply no need for Casilla and Flaherty. Because Flaherty is Buck's boy, you essentially have two utility infielders and no fourth outfielder ( I don't think Pearce qualifies, he's a DH who they occasionally stick in left field, and he's terrible out there).

[El Gordo]

Buck has mismanaged this roster in more ways than just using JJ as his closer. Two examples:

1. No way should Markakis still be batting third in the lineup. Nick is one of my favorite Orioles but he's a singles hitter at this point. You move Davis up and bat him third and AJ fourth, because AJ is the only legitimate protection Davis has in that lineup.

2. Completely absurd to have Roberts, Flaherty and Casilla on the roster. I understand his hands are pretty much tied and he has to play Roberts, however, Casilla can be used in the utility role, there is simply no need for Casilla and Flaherty. Because Flaherty is Buck's boy, you essentially have two utility infielders and no fourth outfielder ( I don't think Pearce qualifies, he's a DH who they occasionally stick in left field, and he's terrible out there).

These are like your opinions man and pretty dumb ones IMO. No reason to say Buck is mismanaging the roster. He doesn't have total say the Roberts/ Casilla/ Flash situation, and the line up order besides having little or no meaning statistically, is working fairly well as it is. Check out Davis' numbers batting 3 or 4, v batting 5. Markakis batting 3 is a choice between having a L/R/L sequence or having Jones bat 3. Personally I'd rather have Jones bat 3, but I don't think it really makes that much difference. Buck is one of the best managers I have seen in my 54 years watching the O's. Right up there with Earl and Paul Richards. I wonder how Earl would have dealt with the JJ situation. It's not as easy a call as some of the couch geniuses think.

[Can_of_corn]

Buck has mismanaged this roster in more ways than just using JJ as his closer. Two examples:

1. No way should Markakis still be batting third in the lineup. Nick is one of my favorite Orioles but he's a singles hitter at this point. You move Davis up and bat him third and AJ fourth, because AJ is the only legitimate protection Davis has in that lineup.

2. Completely absurd to have Roberts, Flaherty and Casilla on the roster. I understand his hands are pretty much tied and he has to play Roberts, however, Casilla can be used in the utility role, there is simply no need for Casilla and Flaherty. Because Flaherty is Buck's boy, you essentially have two utility infielders and no fourth outfielder ( I don't think Pearce qualifies, he's a DH who they occasionally stick in left field, and he's terrible out there).

No.

Just no.

This has been beat beyond death.

The third spot in the order isn't something magical.

Protection is a myth.

[tntoriole]

These are like your opinions man and pretty dumb ones IMO. No reason to say Buck is mismanaging the roster. He doesn't have total say the Roberts/ Casilla/ Flash situation, and the line up order besides having little or no meaning statistically, is working fairly well as it is. Check out Davis' numbers batting 3 or 4, v batting 5. Markakis batting 3 is a choice between having a L/R/L sequence or having Jones bat 3. Personally I'd rather have Jones bat 3, but I don't think it really makes that much difference. Buck is one of the best managers I have seen in my 54 years watching the O's. Right up there with Earl and Paul Richards. I wonder how Earl would have dealt with the JJ situation. It's not as easy a call as some of the couch geniuses think.

Earl would smoke them in the runway with Fullpack Stanhouse who had save percentages worse Than JJ. In 1978 and 1979, Stanhouse was 77 and 78 percent, but Earl stuck with him and won AL championship with him.

[Malike]

Earl would smoke them in the runway with Fullpack Stanhouse who had save percentages worse Than JJ. In 1978 and 1979, Stanhouse was 77 and 78 percent, but Earl stuck with him and won AL championship with him.

How many save opportunities did he get? How many CG pitched by the starters? I don't have time to look it up, but I bet if Stanhouse got as many chances as JJ, Earl would have made a change. He always said his best closer was Palmer.

[tntoriole]

How many save opportunities did he get? How many CG pitched by the starters? I don't have time to look it up, but I bet if Stanhouse got as many chances as JJ, Earl would have made a change. He always said his best closer was Palmer.

Five man rotation in 1979. Different time you are correct, but , still Stanhouse was a long way from being perfect. Bruce Sutter led majors with 37 saves but had 10 BS that year.

Flanny had 16 CGs in 38 starts and Dennis Martinez had 18 in 39 starts, but Steve Stone only had 3 in 32 starts, Palmer had 7 in 22 starts, Scotty McGregor had 7 in 23 starts. Stanhouse pitched in 52 games and had 21 saves in 27 opportunities with 6 blown saves.