St Louis Post-Dispatch : Best Shortstop Fit for the Cardinals is JJ Hardy

[weams]

I don't consider Baltimore a legitimate playoff contender entering the off-season (I know, that's a funny thing to say eleven months out), so the idea of being in legit contention seems like a stretch that would involve a lot going right.

As always, perception is everything. If I thought this was a playoff team, I'd be all for keeping Hardy right where he is.

So, if the Orioles trade Wieters, get a workable catcher, a 2.5 WAR LF a 2.5 WAR second baseman and a 3 WAR starter that goes 6 +, your mind would change?

[Stotle]

Unless of course, they get over the top in 2014 or 15.

That's the spirit!

[Stotle]

So, if the Orioles trade Wieters, get a workable catcher, a 2.5 WAR LF a 2.5 WAR second baseman and a 3 WAR starter that goes 6 +, your mind would change?

I guess it depends on what those WAR totals represent, and what type of contracts/commitments come along with those numbers.

[tntoriole]

That's the spirit!

Worked in 2012! lol. We shall see.

[Migrant Redbird]

No, what is being said is if St. Louis is unwilling to pay the premium needed to get Hardy then, absolutely, they should seek out other options. Drew. Peralta. Furcal. Whoever.

Which is exactly what I expect them to do. The Cardinals would certainly love to have Hardy at shortstop next season, but that only works if the Orioles are willing to make a fair deal.

The Orioles should not, in any case, simply trade Hardy for what is perceived as "equal value".

So the only way you think the Orioles should trade Hardy is if they can fleece the other team. That's a rather foolish attitude. The Orioles could easily lose Hardy after the 2014 season for nothing at all, except another 5th place finish in the AL East.

We can find pitchers like Lynn elsewhere, if that is what we want, and keep Hardy.

Really? Where?

There are no free agents of Lynn's youth and quality on the FA market. Over the 2012-2013 seasons, Lynn and Wainwright led the NL with 33 wins. If you think that you can find another team with a pitcher of Lynn's ability for a one year rental of Hardy, you're hallucinating.

The Cardinals themselves have made it clear that they are trying to upgrade at SS. Evidently, they aren't as certain as you seem to be that they will be winning the WS next year with Kozma at SS.

No one can be "certain" of winning the World Series next year. However, the Cardinals have been in the NLCS in both of the last two seasons, with Kozma at shortstop, and they just improved significantly on defense with the Freese/Bourjos trade. I think it's highly likely the Cardinals will make the postseason again in 2014, whether Kozma is at shortstop or not. Hardy would give us slightly better chances of advancing again, but the playoffs remain basically a crapshoot.

I also think fans are mistaken if they think the Orioles and Cardinals have "moved on". They're just not motivated to make a straight up swap of Hardy for Miller (at least, the Cardinals aren't), so they will continue discussions with other teams while keeping an open mind.

I recall reading Bing Devine's memoirs where he discussed the Brock/Broglio trade. Broglio had won 18 games the season before and led the league with 21 wins just 3 years earlier. Brock was an undisciplined, 25-year-old outfielder, hitting only .251 to start the 1964 season. Yet both the Cardinals and the Cubs valued Brock's potential and the Cubs had rejected several previous trade offers. In early June, injuries had made the Cubs desperate for pitching, so Devine went back to them with another trade proposal, which the Cubs accepted. At the time, all the pundits felt the Cubs got the better of the trade, but Brock caught fire after the trade and didn't stop until he'd run his way into the HOF.

The point of this story is that good GMs don't give up on a deal even if it's initially rejected by the other team. It also highlights how desperation can entice a GM into an unfavorable deal. I don't think Mozeliak is likely to fall into that trap. Riding on a wave of 3 straight NLCS appearances, 2 pennants, and a World Championship, I doubt if he feels any pressure at all. He surely has more job security than DD.

[weams]

I don't think Mozeliak is likely to fall into that trap. Riding on a wave of 3 straight NLCS appearances, 2 pennants, and a World Championship, I doubt if he feels any pressure at all. He surely has more job security than DD.

Mozeliak has a job through 2018? I thought his extension was over in '16. You can say your beliefs on this, but we are Orioles fans here.

[tntoriole]

Which is exactly what I expect them to do. The Cardinals would certainly love to have Hardy at shortstop next season, but that only works if the Orioles are willing to make a fair deal.

So the only way you think the Orioles should trade Hardy is if they can fleece the other team. That's a rather foolish attitude. The Orioles could easily lose Hardy after the 2014 season for nothing at all, except another 5th place finish in the AL East.

Really? Where?

There are no free agents of Lynn's youth and quality on the FA market. Over the 2012-2013 seasons, Lynn and Wainwright led the NL with 33 wins. If you think that you can find another team with a pitcher of Lynn's ability for a one year rental of Hardy, you're hallucinating.

No one can be "certain" of winning the World Series next year. However, the Cardinals have been in the NLCS in both of the last two seasons, with Kozma at shortstop, and they just improved significantly on defense with the Freese/Bourjos trade. I think it's highly likely the Cardinals will make the postseason again in 2014, whether Kozma is at shortstop or not. Hardy would give us slightly better chances of advancing again, but the playoffs remain basically a crapshoot.

I also think fans are mistaken if they think the Orioles and Cardinals have "moved on". They're just not motivated to make a straight up swap of Hardy for Miller (at least, the Cardinals aren't), so they will continue discussions with other teams while keeping an open mind.

I recall reading Bing Devine's memoirs where he discussed the Brock/Broglio trade. Broglio had won 18 games the season before and led the league with 21 wins just 3 years earlier. Brock was an undisciplined, 25-year-old outfielder, hitting only .251 to start the 1964 season. Yet both the Cardinals and the Cubs valued Brock's potential and the Cubs had rejected several previous trade offers. In early June, injuries had made the Cubs desperate for pitching, so Devine went back to them with another trade proposal, which the Cubs accepted. At the time, all the pundits felt the Cubs got the better of the trade, but Brock caught fire after the trade and didn't stop until he'd run his way into the HOF.

The point of this story is that good GMs don't give up on a deal even if it's initially rejected by the other team. It also highlights how desperation can entice a GM into an unfavorable deal. I don't think Mozeliak is likely to fall into that trap. Riding on a wave of 3 straight NLCS appearances, 2 pennants, and a World Championship, I doubt if he feels any pressure at all. He surely has more job security than DD.

Now, now. Just because your team is near the top is no reason to be totally inaccurate. We were in playoffs as wildcard in 2012 and in 3rd in AL East last year. The AL East as you likely realize is not the NL Central the last time I checked, so your prediction is likely true about being in the postseason from your standpoint. But it is not a matter of "fleecing", it is a matter that Hardy is more valuable to us than Lance Lynn. Even if JJ walks (although we could extend and keep him, or we could extend and trade him in the spring or summer as Manny will be shortstop in 2015), it still is no reason to decimate the left side of the infield for a return that is marginal.

[Number5]

Which is exactly what I expect them to do. The Cardinals would certainly love to have Hardy at shortstop next season, but that only works if the Orioles are willing to make a fair deal.

So the only way you think the Orioles should trade Hardy is if they can fleece the other team. That's a rather foolish attitude. The Orioles could easily lose Hardy after the 2014 season for nothing at all, except another 5th place finish in the AL East.

Really? Where?

There are no free agents of Lynn's youth and quality on the FA market. Over the 2012-2013 seasons, Lynn and Wainwright led the NL with 33 wins. If you think that you can find another team with a pitcher of Lynn's ability for a one year rental of Hardy, you're hallucinating.

No one can be "certain" of winning the World Series next year. However, the Cardinals have been in the NLCS in both of the last two seasons, with Kozma at shortstop, and they just improved significantly on defense with the Freese/Bourjos trade. I think it's highly likely the Cardinals will make the postseason again in 2014, whether Kozma is at shortstop or not. Hardy would give us slightly better chances of advancing again, but the playoffs remain basically a crapshoot.

I also think fans are mistaken if they think the Orioles and Cardinals have "moved on". They're just not motivated to make a straight up swap of Hardy for Miller (at least, the Cardinals aren't), so they will continue discussions with other teams while keeping an open mind.

I recall reading Bing Devine's memoirs where he discussed the Brock/Broglio trade. Broglio had won 18 games the season before and led the league with 21 wins just 3 years earlier. Brock was an undisciplined, 25-year-old outfielder, hitting only .251 to start the 1964 season. Yet both the Cardinals and the Cubs valued Brock's potential and the Cubs had rejected several previous trade offers. In early June, injuries had made the Cubs desperate for pitching, so Devine went back to them with another trade proposal, which the Cubs accepted. At the time, all the pundits felt the Cubs got the better of the trade, but Brock caught fire after the trade and didn't stop until he'd run his way into the HOF.

The point of this story is that good GMs don't give up on a deal even if it's initially rejected by the other team. It also highlights how desperation can entice a GM into an unfavorable deal. I don't think Mozeliak is likely to fall into that trap. Riding on a wave of 3 straight NLCS appearances, 2 pennants, and a World Championship, I doubt if he feels any pressure at all. He surely has more job security than DD.

There is no reason for personal comments. They do not strengthen your case.

What you don't want to acknowledge is that the Orioles aren't really looking to get rid of Hardy. They will trade him if offered a premium-value deal, IMO. Need, team situations, and supply and demand all come into play. I have outlined the reasons for my position on this. Disagree if you like.

We certainly disagree on Lynn's relative worth. I like him in my fantasy league as things stand, pitching in the NL Central for the Cardinals. Real world in the AL East for the Orioles? Not so much. I'm thinking a 4.50 ERA or so, right there with our other SPs. Give up Hardy for that? Not me. What exactly is that going to do to get the Orioles to the next level? How much better would that be than just signing Feldman and keeping Hardy? My point is we don't need to trade Hardy for this kind of return, especially when the other team's need is what is driving the whole conversation.

[weams]

We are, but that doesn't mean all objectivity should go out the window. Just like life, you should put yourself in the other guy's shoes and try to look at things from his perspective.

And I think he got confused on his resolution to that post. Some of the other points were well taken.

[wildcard]

Mozeliak has a job through 2018? I thought his extension was over in '16. You can say your beliefs on this, but we are Orioles fans here.

From the Cardinals website:

John "Mo" Mozeliak was named the Cardinals Senior Vice President and General Manager in October, 2007. Mozeliak received a three-year contract extension through 2016 in February, 2013.

[Migrant Redbird]

Mozeliak has a job through 2018? I thought his extension was over in '16. You can say your beliefs on this, but we are Orioles fans here.

GMs are not paid so highly that a lengthy contract is a better guarantee of job security than continued success on the field and a reputation for having one of the best run franchises in baseball.

But I admit I didn't know the length of either contract.

[weams]

There is no reason for personal comments. They do not strengthen your case.

What you don't want to acknowledge is that the Orioles aren't really looking to get rid of Hardy. They will trade him if offered a premium-value deal, IMO. Need, team situations, and supply and demand all come into play. I have outlined the reasons for my position on this. Disagree if you like.

We certainly disagree on Lynn's relative worth. I like him in my fantasy league as things stand, pitching in the NL Central for the Cardinals. Real world in the AL East for the Orioles? Not so much. I'm thinking a 4.50 ERA or so, right there with our other SPs. Give up Hardy for that? Not me. What exactly is that going to do to get the Orioles to the next level? How much better would that be than just signing Feldman and keeping Hardy? My point is we don't need to trade Hardy for this kind of return, especially when the other team's need is what is driving the whole conversation.

What they are saying is that we stink with or without Hardy so hanging on to him on a half value deal is foolish. Cash it out for something. I just am not willing to concede stinkiness.

[weams]

GMs are not paid so highly that a lengthy contract is a better guarantee of job security than continued success on the field and a reputation for having one of the best run franchises in baseball.

But I admit I didn't know the length of either contract.

I thought maybe that was the case. I know this thread has it's emotions.

[weams]

Are you inside Dan Duquette's head? Hardy has one year left on his contract. How do you know that he doesn't prefer to move him now?

Well two years with his QO

[tntoriole]

Are you inside Dan Duquette's head? Hardy has one year left on his contract. How do you know that he doesn't prefer to move him now?

I am certainly not in DD's head. But this guy probably is and may prefer not now. lol.

.