Have we sacrificed too much the last 2 seasons trying to be in "win now" mode?

[sportsfan8703]

What if we sign Norris to a reasonable 3 year extension? Even without that I'd still make the trade. People are overvaluing prospects right now. Heck Bundy is a top prospect in all of MLB and it was crickets around here last night because he got shelled. Without making the trades for Norris and Feldman we would've have finished below .500 and there would have been a ton of negativity surrounding this year. Instead we are in first place by 4 games at the break.

So big deal Hader is having a big year in A ball. So did Zach Davies last year at the same age. Arrieta was given every chance and is now having success playing meaningless games in the National League! Delmonico has no position and is always hurt. Hoes can't crack the Stros 25 man roster. So when players are traded from the O's do people root against them? Isn't it better for players to go on and succeed so that it will help future trade values of guys in the organization? I just don't get the we gave up too much argument.

[Reboulet'sStache]

What if we sign Norris to a reasonable 3 year extension? Even without that I'd still make the trade. People are overvaluing prospects right now. Heck Bundy is a top prospect in all of MLB and it was crickets around here last night because he got shelled. Without making the trades for Norris and Feldman we would've have finished below .500 and there would have been a ton of negativity surrounding this year. Instead we are in first place by 4 games at the break.

So big deal Hader is having a big year in A ball. So did Zach Davies last year at the same age. Arrieta was given every chance and is now having success playing meaningless games in the National League! Delmonico has no position and is always hurt. Hoes can't crack the Stros 25 man roster. So when players are traded from the O's do people root against them? Isn't it better for players to go on and succeed so that it will help future trade values of guys in the organization? I just don't get the we gave up too much argument.

It's not about whether Hader is going to end up being a stud starter or not. Chances are he won't. But every piece in the minors has a certain worth. Every draft pick has a certain worth. The way you get good is to maximize that value. Trading Hader and the pick for an average starting pitcher is not how you do that.

[DrungoHazewood]

We have not given up too much; but, we have given up a lot. If that makes sense.

Cost controlled Arrieta (you're telling me he couldn't have succeeded in the bullpen ala Britton?)

At the end of 2012 they called up Jake and put him in the pen during the stretch run. He allowed 10 runs in 13.1 innings. In Britton's first 13.1 innings of relief he allowed zero earned. Certainly not a definitive statement, but it appears the relief switch didn't immediately flip on with Jake. Do you think Britton would still be an Oriole if he allowed 10 runs in his first 13 innings this year?

At some point you have to just stop. Jake got more innings with the O's than Dave Johnson or Pete Harnisch or Gregg Olson or Bruce Chen or Tim Stoddard or Tommy Hunter.

[Reboulet'sStache]

That said, and this is directed to Stotle, not in a bad way, I'm just saying, I think there is a plan. The plan is to have a very good MLB team at a certain price point. That's the Angelos directive and I think it's pretty obvious.

That's more of a goal than a plan.

[DrungoHazewood]

It's not about whether Hader is going to end up being a stud starter or not. Chances are he won't. But every piece in the minors has a certain worth. Every draft pick has a certain worth. The way you get good is to maximize that value. Trading Hader and the pick for an average starting pitcher is not how you do that.

Yes, he has a worth. He was a 19th-round pick they paid a few thousand dollars for. Then he had advanced to low A ball. Maybe 1/10th of players in low A make the majors, maybe 30% of the regulars, and probably 10% or 20% of those players end up with semi-valuable careers (go look at a random year, I picked 2006, of the Sally League pitching leaders. Maybe 1/3rd of the top 100 in innings made the majors, but very few made an impact. Guys like Craig Stammen and Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez are among the success stories.). The O's might have traded a 5% chance at a guy who'll end up with 5 career WAR. That's a few $million. It's not nothing, but it's what teams regularly pay for a year of a random bullpen arm, or a platoon/bench outfielder.

[weams]

Man.

Who knows. And frankly, who cares.

We're winning after 14 years of not. And we started winning with basically no farm system. Dan went out and acquired Chen and Gonzo, got Hammel on a good year, a few guys panned out like Davis and Hunter out of the 'pen. All with basically just Machado and Bundy in the system and that's it.

I'm not real worried about sacrificing anything for the sake of wins, since winning is the point. They sacrificed the right guys. And they kept most of the right guys so far. Baseball is a gamble.

Have to agree with dan-O.

By and large, I think they've kept the right guys and traded the right guys.

Johnson probably should have been dealt after 2012. Would love to know what the market was for him, though - I suspect it was not very hot.

Losing Hader, the pick, and the first 2 picks this year is likely to hurt the future, no doubt. But at some point, you have to try to win, too. Walking that line is tough.

There are a couple of the two year window guys out there. I am not one of them. I believe this team has been handled correctly for three plus seasons.

[Frobby]

So big deal Hader is having a big year in A ball. So did Zach Davies last year at the same age.

Hader (2014): 2.60 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.8 K/9

Davies (2013): 3.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.0 K/9

Hader plays in the California League, which is extremely hitter-friendly compared to the Carolina League. I'd say Hader's 2014 is significantly more impressive than Davies' 2013. And by the way, Davies is a pretty decent prospect still IMO (3.57 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in the Eastern League at age 21).

Still, you have to view the Norris trade in context. The day that trade was made, we were in second wild card position, with two teams within a game of us, two other teams 3.5 and 5 games back. We were heavily in the race, looking for any edge we could get that might put us over the top. Jason Hammel was floundering along with a 5.20 ERA, 5.52 in July, and was put on the DL the same day we acquired Norris and didn't return for 5+ weeks. We didn't have an obvious candidate to take his spot. So yes we paid a fairly steep price, but at the time it was potentially an impact move with respect to the 2013 playoff race. And even though it was apparent that Hader was a pretty good prospect, he was at least three years away from the majors and, in fairness, considered to be no better than our 4th best pitching prospect (and probably lower than that at the time).

[weams]

Yes, he has a worth. He was a 19th-round pick they paid a few thousand dollars for. Then he had advanced to low A ball. Maybe 1/10th of players in low A make the majors, maybe 30% of the regulars, and probably 10% or 20% of those players end up with semi-valuable careers (go look at a random year, I picked 2006, of the Sally League pitching leaders. Maybe 1/3rd of the top 100 in innings made the majors, but very few made an impact. Guys like Craig Stammen and Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez are among the success stories.). The O's might have traded a 5% chance at a guy who'll end up with 5 career WAR. That's a few $million. It's not nothing, but it's what teams regularly pay for a year of a random bullpen arm, or a platoon/bench outfielder.

How frequent is the success of a A level pitching prospect to the success that Bud Norris has accomplished in his career?

[DrungoHazewood]

How frequent is the success of a A level pitching prospect to the success that Bud Norris has accomplished in his career?

Bud Norris has been roughly an average MLB starter for six years, worth 5.0 rWAR. Hader was a fairly successful starter for the Shorebirds at 19.

Looking at the 2006-2007 Sally League it looks like there were maybe 23 19-year-old pitchers over those two seasons. The most successful appear to be Jon Niese, Chris Volstad, Jeanmar Gomez, and Hector Rondon. Two roughly Norris-like starters and two serviceable relievers. There were also quite a few guys with Hader-like numbers like Will Inman, Timothy Cox, and Brandon Erbe. I don't know if those two years are typical.

[weams]

Bud Norris has been roughly an average MLB starter for six years, worth 5.0 rWAR. Hader was a fairly successful starter for the Shorebirds at 19.

Looking at the 2006-2007 Sally League it looks like there were maybe 23 19-year-old pitchers over those two seasons. The most successful appear to be Jon Niese, Chris Volstad, Jeanmar Gomez, and Hector Rondon. Two roughly Norris-like starters and two serviceable relievers. There were also quite a few guys with Hader-like numbers like Will Inman, Timothy Cox, and Brandon Erbe. I don't know if those two years are typical.

I assumed as much. Thanks. So, not much of a chance of being Bud.

[bpilktree]

I don't think there is much evidence that Baltimore is excelling at developing low-draft prospects yet, but hopefully what you are describing is the case.

I think there is some evidence granted they have only had three drafts so far so you can't really expect them to be in the majors yet but we have had some guys climbing up the ladder pretty well and have now reached up to AAA and none where thought to be great prospects in the draft or sigining them How they continue to develop will be the key but in the last two years, We have seen Schoop who was not a major international signing get all the way to the majors. Though I think in the perfect would he would be getting more experience in AAA this first half. We have players like Tyler Wilson who was a 10th round picked and did not start out with a lot of praise but has now pitched better at each level. That shows player development imo. Walker was seen as a guy with not much power which would hurt him as a first base prospect and now he has 20 homers through half a season in AA before getting promoted. Alvarez is the same way many thought he was a fourth outfielder at best and maybe he will be put so far he is showing a lot of progress. Hunter Harvey though he was a first round pick was a later pick and many did not see him this good and he is now a top 20 prospect and done that very quickly. Yes these guys will have to make the next step to help the Orioles in the future but having guys that are atleast producing is a lot better then when we would have to promote guys that were not doing much in the minors in the first place because we had noone else.

[DrungoHazewood]

I assumed as much. Thanks. So, not much of a chance of being Bud.

No, but there is some risk that any 19-year-old success in low A becomes much better than Bud. Not much, but it's there. It's why you can get real live major leaguers for 19-year-olds who were recently 19th-round draft picks. If all they were was a 5% chance at Bud Norris you'd never get anything for Josh Hader.

[Stotle]

I think there is some evidence granted they have only had three drafts so far so you can't really expect them to be in the majors yet but we have had some guys climbing up the ladder pretty well and have now reached up to AAA and none where thought to be great prospects in the draft or sigining them How they continue to develop will be the key but in the last two years, We have seen Schoop who was not a major international signing get all the way to the majors. Though I think in the perfect would he would be getting more experience in AAA this first half. We have players like Tyler Wilson who was a 10th round picked and did not start out with a lot of praise but has now pitched better at each level. That shows player development imo. Walker was seen as a guy with not much power which would hurt him as a first base prospect and now he has 20 homers through half a season in AA before getting promoted. Alvarez is the same way many thought he was a fourth outfielder at best and maybe he will be put so far he is showing a lot of progress. Hunter Harvey though he was a first round pick was a later pick and many did not see him this good and he is now a top 20 prospect and done that very quickly. Yes these guys will have to make the next step to help the Orioles in the future but having guys that are atleast producing is a lot better then when we would have to promote guys that were not doing much in the minors in the first place because we had noone else.

I don't agree with a number of those characterizations, but I understand why you feel the way you do.

[Frobby]

Keith Law caught a few of the minor league all-star games recently and had some notes on the prospects there. The Astros of note in the California League all-star game was left-hander Josh Hader. It's worth reading Law's full take, but what's interesting is his comments on Hader's arm slot.

Law implies that Hader's arm action makes him very tough against left-handers, but that it leaves him better projected as a reliever long-term. From how the Astros view him, I doubt the organization shares those views. Hader will continue to start until he can't. In 65 innings this season, Hader has struck out 75 and posted a 2.34 ERA with a 2.88 FIP in one of the most hitter-friendly leagues in the minors.

But, even if Hader doesn't stick as a starter, he shows the versatility of adding all this minor league pitching depth. Hader is easily a top 20 prospect in the system right now and may be top 10.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2014/6/20/5824304/fridays-three-astros-things-josh-hader-cuban-baseball

And this from Jason Parks of BP after watching one of his April starts:

I believe there is enough going on here to warrant a no. 4 starter ceiling for the recently turned 20-year-old. Hader is undoubtedly a long-term project, as noted by the 2017 ETA, but the wait could be worth it once he is a complete product.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23489

That doesn't sound too much like a guy who is likely to be better than Norris, though obviously, he could be.

[tntoriole]

Well, I guess there is just no possibility, not even 5%, that Bud Norris could become even better than he is right now rather than him just remaining a static commodity while the Josh Haders of the world do all the progressing. I mean pitchers and hitters at the ML level almost never exceed the predictions, right?