Miguel Gonzalez Out Bud Norris In For Game Three

[Can_of_corn]

You don't think a P can induce weak contact or, if I word it better, increase the likelihood of weak contact?

If they can, then why don't they?

The majority of pitchers fall within a certain segment of BABIP over the course of their careers.

There are certain pitchers who do show the ability to consistently generate below norm BABIP numbers. Gonzo may very well be one of those guys.

This chart indicates that there is a chance.

I do fully believe that in certain pitcher/hitter matchups the pitcher can do something like induce a pop up, as a result of scouting a hitters tendencies and setting up a pitch sequence to exploit that knowledge.

[vab]

I don't if anybody has mentioned it but it's going to be cold in Detroit. Gonzalez has trouble in cold weather, Norris will probably handle that better.

[SilentJames]

Bud goes five/six. Might finishes the game, spelling the rest of the pen. Especially if we get out to a lead.

Essentially the Orioles have two starters they could throw tomorrow. Three if you count Ubaldo.

[mrbig1]

Bud goes five/six. Might finishes the game, spelling the rest of the pen. Especially if we get out to a lead.

Essentially the Orioles have two starters they could throw tomorrow. Three if you count Ubaldo.

That's the way I see it.

[ChuckS]

Yep.

Bud Norris vs RHP: .226/.293/.366/.659

Miguel Gonzalez vs RHP: .249/.306/.418/.724

With Norris' ability to miss bats more than Gonzalez, he seems to a better matchup. Expect Gonzalez though to be his handcuff if things don't work out early.

Curious who would start Monday if that scenario happened and we lost. Would have to be Jiminez, no?

[weams]

Curious who would start Monday if that scenario happened and we lost. Would have to be Jiminez, no?

Or Tillman.

[Crazysilver03]

Or Tillman.

On 3 days rest? Why would you bring him back for Game 4 when its not an elimination game?

[Aristotelian]

Bud goes five/six. Might finishes the game, spelling the rest of the pen. Especially if we get out to a lead.

Essentially the Orioles have two starters they could throw tomorrow. Three if you count Ubaldo.

Why do we need to spell the pen? Just had an off day and only guys who pitched yesterday were Gausman, Britton (quick inning) and Brach (two hitters). Other than Gausman, everyone is available. I see a repeat of Game 1, with Bud going five or six, some combination of O'Day, Hunter, and Miller to bridge, and Britton to close if we are ahead.

If Bud gets into major trouble and we need a long man, I would see Brach or Ubaldo.

[weams]

On 3 days rest? Why would you bring him back for Game 4 when its not an elimination game?

Short pitch count first outing. He'd be fine and if it did not work, you would have all hands on deck for game five.

[TonySoprano]

Short pitch count first outing. He'd be fine and if it did not work, you would have all hands on deck for game five.

Just say "no" to Game 5 and Scherzer.

[weams]

Just say "no" to Game 5 and Scherzer.

Good reason to throw Tillman Monday then. Or Ubaldo. Either.

[bobmc]

I don't if anybody has mentioned it but it's going to be cold in Detroit. Gonzalez has trouble in cold weather, Norris will probably handle that better.

I'm in OH three hours south and it just turned real cold today - windy and never got to fifty. Tomorrow it will be a bit warmer but not a great day for inside pitches....I wouldn't want to play baseball today for sure. But then again, I'm 71....

[stomperspc]

Short pitch count first outing. He'd be fine and if it did not work, you would have all hands on deck for game five.

105 pitches is a "short pitch count"?

I think Gonzo goes Monday (if needed) and is not used in relief tomorrow unless it is a very unusual circumstance. O'Day and Miller will be on two days rest. If the O's do win tomorrow, Buck would probably like to get both of those guys in the game or else they will go seven days in between appearances. He might not force them into the game, but I think he'll get them in if the opportunity presents itself. I agree with Aristotelian. I think if we have a lead, Buck uses the bullpen similar to Game 1. If we are down by a couple of runs and Bud only goes 5, Brach, Hunter or possibly Ubaldo are first in.

[jcarm]

nevermind

[CA-ORIOLE]

Arrieta used to constantly underperform relative to his FIP, but that was largely because he threw meatballs when pitching out of the stretch. There's usually a better answer when you don't generalize things and put P into the same categories.

Not really disagreeing about Arrieta, but there were other favorable factors for Arrieta's FIP besides batted balls and one of the reasons Mckracken's numbers for batted balls work is that guys that consistently give up "meatballs" find themselves out of the majors and out of the statistical pool if they don't get it to together.

Nobody is saying that DIPS is uniform and/or there aren't gaps and/or outliars, but it is more stable than ERA on aggregate and lets not pretend ERA (and even the adjustments and massaging of ERA) doesn't have significant issues in evaluating pitcher effectiveness. Also, I don't think anyone is advocating FIP/DIPS be used "incorrecty", but it is a performance stat (like it or not).