Fangraphs: General Managers on the current run scoring environment.

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/general-managers-on-the-current-run-scoring-environment-thoughts-from-phoenix/

There is no disputing that offense is down. Teams are scoring fewer runs and hitting fewer balls over fences. Strikeouts numbers have grown precipitously. Some of the reasons behind those changes are clear. Others are more speculative. The bottom line is that the offensive environment isn?t what it was as recently as a handful of years ago.

The downturn begs two questions: 1. Is this an irreversible trend (barring rule changes), or is it simply a cyclical dip? 2. How does it impact roster-building decisions?

[Oriole1940]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/general-managers-on-the-current-run-scoring-environment-thoughts-from-phoenix/

IMO the former 8/9 inning SP have become the 5/6 inning SP, so fresh arms coming in the game is part of it, especially the lefty specialists coming in. One other time this happened, AL got the DH. What now?

[Reboulet'sStache]

It will swing back, these things always do. It just takes a little longer in baseball because it takes longer to develop a new mold of players. It's not like an NFL defense adjusting to the read option, where you just need one off-season of game film.

[weams]

It will swing back' date=' these things always do. It just takes a little longer in baseball because it takes longer to develop a new mold of players. It's not like an NFL defense adjusting to the read option, where you just need one off-season of game film.[/quote']

It won't swing back without some mechanical adjustment to the game.

[weams]

IMO the former 8/9 inning SP have become the 5/6 inning SP, so fresh arms coming in the game is part of it, especially the lefty specialists coming in. One other time this happened, AL got the DH. What now?

NL will get a DH. Because they will score no runs otherwise.

[Frobby]

I prefer the game the way it is right now to the homer-happy days. There's a good balance between hitting and pitching. It's just a matter of whether offense drops too much further. That, I wouldn't like.

[Chavez Ravine]

Maybe we should apply an OH game thread metric. If a team is up by two runs in the third inning and it really is irrevocably over, then it might be time for some rule changes.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Maybe we should apply an OH game thread metric. If a team is up by two runs in the third inning and it really is irrevocably over, then it might be time for some rule changes.

:rofl:

[Say O!]

It will swing back' date=' these things always do. It just takes a little longer in baseball because it takes longer to develop a new mold of players. It's not like an NFL defense adjusting to the read option, where you just need one off-season of game film.[/quote']

Great analogy.

Will the game move away from "three true outcomes" development and into better balance with balls in play? I sincerely hope so as promotes a more exciting brand of baseball with more on the field action as opposed to dead-ball BBs and Ks.

[birdcrazy]

The use of extreme shifts is killing numbers. Likely cut 30-40 pts of Davis's average this year. I personally would not be upset if they made a rule you had to have two infielders on each side of second base. It is pretty lame watching the 3rd baseman throw people out from shallow right.

[Loophole]

Fix the strikezone and we're gold. Can't start calling low strikes all of a sudden without fixing the inside strike. That's the biggest thing outside PED testing.

[Loophole]

I prefer the game the way it is right now to the homer-happy days. There's a good balance between hitting and pitching. It's just a matter of whether offense drops too much further. That, I wouldn't like.

No one's saying low-scoring games are bad. But because of the unprecedented amount of strikeouts the ball is being put in play less than ever. To me, that's a very bad thing.

[Brooks The Great]

The NL adding the DH is one of only two realistic adjustments that will impact the game in a significant way within the next 5-10 years. The other adjustment being a pitch clock.

I think adding a DH for the NL will happen, and I think it should happen.

Pitchers in the NL shouldn't be exposed to injuries batting and running the bases. The players union will be more than happy to create more job openings for older, speed-challenged players with the addition for the NL DH, as well as protecting NL pitchers from the aforementioned risk of injury. It makes so much sense to add the DH to the NL.

[UpstateNYfan]

It will swing back' date=' these things always do. It just takes a little longer in baseball because it takes longer to develop a new mold of players. It's not like an NFL defense adjusting to the read option, where you just need one off-season of game film.[/quote']

Pretty absurd statement, it is not like weather (weather is different from climate). It is not likely to change. with all the collection of data, shifts will become more extreme. Teams will not overly protect high prospect pitchers...throw 95, come up, blow out arm, next up. The NFL is now starting high draft pick quarterbacks much quicker than a decade ago. Learn as you play the bigs. It will also continue to show an overall reduction in SP innings/start and a trend toward a 5.5 man rotation.

The adjustment will have to come from the players willing to learn hitting against the shift. Or, teams will have to prove that you can win with speed, defense and less power.

Unless MLB "outlaws" the shift runs will be at a minimum. Will teams sacrifice more, try to get the lead early, shuffle more pitchers in??? NFL teams learn and try to implement ways to stop offenses and offenses learn how to counter those moves. MLB also works hard to stop offenses, however the offense doesn't counter with new moves.

[weams]

Pretty absurd statement, it is not like weather (weather is different from climate). It is not likely to change. with all the collection of data, shifts will become more extreme. Teams will not overly protect high prospect pitchers...throw 95, come up, blow out arm, next up. The NFL is now starting high draft pick quarterbacks much quicker than a decade ago. Learn as you play the bigs. It will also continue to show an overall reduction in SP innings/start and a trend toward a 5.5 man rotation.

The adjustment will have to come from the players willing to learn hitting against the shift. Or, teams will have to prove that you can win with speed, defense and less power.

Unless MLB "outlaws" the shift runs will be at a minimum. Will teams sacrifice more, try to get the lead early, shuffle more pitchers in??? NFL teams learn and try to implement ways to stop offenses and offenses learn how to counter those moves. MLB also works hard to stop offenses, however the offense doesn't counter with new moves.

I do think a strike zone adjustment would make a big difference.