For What it's worth.....

[Cubsfan]

The Indians have been mentioned in the media. Ken Rosenthal said they were involved a month or so ago and Roch Kubatko also indicated they were in the hunt in one of his blogs. I think to some degree some of the Cubs fans are used to having very, very comprehensive coverage of their team because they're in a big market so they don't comprehend that sometimes things go on behind closed doors without any of the details getting leaked out.

There was speculation from some reporter today that the Indians might not want to resign Blake (who's 35 years old) after this year and might want to move Cabrera to SS and Peralta to 3B. There had been earlier talk of Peralta to 3B because of his defensive problems at SS. I suppose it's possible that some trades happen without anyone finding out beforehand, but I doubt many "name" players are involved without someone in the competitive sports reporting field getting wind of it.

[rammyfanny]

This is the second time in this thread. Didn't you, in essence, just repeat what I stated? I don't understand. My point was that the Cubs are a team that thinks it has a chance to win it all this year. Championship caliber teams need to be stacked. That's all I was stating. Injuries, minor and major, happen all the time. IF a major injury hits the Cubs, they will be seriously impacted - thus, all the more reason they need Roberts. Just trying to clarify.

My fault:002_scool: .

Though I don't agree with the bottom part neccessarily. It all depends on the player that gets hit with the major injury. If Soriano would get hit with a major injury for example, we wouldn't need Roberts by any stretch, we'd need Murton (who would probably go in a Roberts trade).

[El Gordo]

There was speculation from some reporter today that the Indians might not want to resign Blake (who's 35 years old) after this year and might want to move Cabrera to SS and Peralta to 3B. There had been earlier talk of Peralta to 3B because of his defensive problems at SS. I suppose it's possible that some trades happen without anyone finding out beforehand, but I doubt many "name" players are involved without someone in the competitive sports reporting field getting wind of it.

So True. Everybody sure saw the Cabrera/Willis to Detroit trade weeks ahead.

[wirenutz]

I read some where that the Cubs were looking for a right hand hitting centerfielder do you think they could include Payton in a package deal?

[FO2020]

I figured this was the right thread (FWIW) to add this tidbit. I will apologize in advance if it's already been posted, but I figured it's worth mentioning. On WSCR (CHI) this morning, they reported that they "had learned" that a deal between the Cubs and O's had been done a long time ago (I didn't catch a specific time period), but PA stepped in and started involving himself in the negotiations.

Again, take it at face value, but sounds like McPhail already had agreed on a package, and PA either nixed it, or just scared someone away.

[Fairfax Bird]

I figured this was the right thread (FWIW) to add this tidbit. I will apologize in advance if it's already been posted, but I figured it's worth mentioning. On WSCR (CHI) this morning, they reported that they "had learned" that a deal between the Cubs and O's had been done a long time ago (I didn't catch a specific time period), but PA stepped in and started involving himself in the negotiations.

Again, take it at face value, but sounds like McPhail already had agreed on a package, and PA either nixed it, or just scared someone away.

Yawn ... this again. No offense, but we have been over and over it.

[Migrant Redbird]

Just out of curiosity, would you be willing to give up Rasmus straight up for Roberts?

I might have given up Rasmus -- begrudgingly -- for Bedard. I wouldn't consider giving him up for Roberts, unless you threw in an "ML ready" shortstop. But as bad as the Cardinals middle infielders are right now, the prospects are looking up and it could change dramatically for the better in a year or two.

By the way, the O's wouldn't do Duncan for Roberts straight up. You would need to include a couple other prospects. Maybe Jose Martinez and a pitcher along with Duncan.

I think that you'd probably find very few Cardinals fans willing to give up Duncan straight up for Roberts either. Duncan is probably going to be a plus 800 OPS slugger for the next several years -- barring injuries -- and might even reach the plus 1.000 and be the next "Big Papi". If he were a decent outfielder, and if the Cards didn't have a surplus of young outfielders right not, you probably wouldn't find very many Cards fans even considering trading him off. I'd rather go with Ludwick, Barton, or Mather in left field -- all of whom provide plus outfield defense -- given that Rasmus is expected to own center after this season and Ankiel will probably move back to right unless he goes free agency.

That said, I'd rather someone other than Duncan be the main player in a deal just because we don't need anymore DH/1B/LF type guys.

Are you kidding me? You don't have any "DH/1B/LF type guys"! Last year, the O's were 11th in OPS from the DH spot, with a meager .737. You got an .813 from your first basemen -- which is OK, but nothing to brag about for a 1st baseman. In LF, you were last in the league, with a microscopic .631! Sheesh, the Cards had 4 pitchers with a higher OPS than that! (Admittedly, 2 of them only had 1 at bat....)

Duncan's OPS was .952 in 314 plate appearances his rookie season, and a lot of people figured it was an anomaly. In 2007, his OPS was .936 at the end of July. It plummeted to .541 for the month of August, when he was trying to play through a sports hernia, but he also posted a 1.140 the month before, in July.

If healthy, I think Duncan probably puts up .900 to 1.000 against right handers. He still needs to develop against southpaws -- he only has 142 career plate appearances in total so far against left handers -- not enough to know if he can improve much against them or not.

I'd like to see a deal headed by Chris Perez. I'm not that familiar with the Cards prospects, but would you do a Perez, Herron, and Martinez for Roberts deal?

Perez is the heir apparent for Isringhausen; I don't see him getting dealt for a 2nd baseman, since we've got a couple prospects coming up who should fill that role in a year or two. One of those is Jose Martinez, who could be part of an all-Texas League All Star infield in Springfield, this season.

At this point, it appears too early to project Herron as an ML starter. He might make it, but he hasn't shown that much yet.

[Number5]

I might have given up Rasmus -- begrudgingly -- for Bedard. I wouldn't consider giving him up for Roberts, unless you threw in an "ML ready" shortstop. But as bad as the Cardinals middle infielders are right now, the prospects are looking up and it could change dramatically for the better in a year or two.

I think that you'd probably find very few Cardinals fans willing to give up Duncan straight up for Roberts either. Duncan is probably going to be a plus 800 OPS slugger for the next several years -- barring injuries -- and might even reach the plus 1.000 and be the next "Big Papi". If he were a decent outfielder, and if the Cards didn't have a surplus of young outfielders right not, you probably wouldn't find very many Cards fans even considering trading him off. I'd rather go with Ludwick, Barton, or Mather in left field -- all of whom provide plus outfield defense -- given that Rasmus is expected to own center after this season and Ankiel will probably move back to right unless he goes free agency.

Are you kidding me? You don't have any "DH/1B/LF type guys"! Last year, the O's were 11th in OPS from the DH spot, with a meager .737. You got an .813 from your first basemen -- which is OK, but nothing to brag about for a 1st baseman. In LF, you were last in the league, with a microscopic .631! Sheesh, the Cards had 4 pitchers with a higher OPS than that! (Admittedly, 2 of them only had 1 at bat....)

Duncan's OPS was .952 in 314 plate appearances his rookie season, and a lot of people figured it was an anomaly. In 2007, his OPS was .936 at the end of July. It plummeted to .541 for the month of August, when he was trying to play through a sports hernia, but he also posted a 1.140 the month before, in July.

If healthy, I think Duncan probably puts up .900 to 1.000 against right handers. He still needs to develop against southpaws -- he only has 142 career plate appearances in total so far against left handers -- not enough to know if he can improve much against them or not.

Perez is the heir apparent for Isringhausen; I don't see him getting dealt for a 2nd baseman, since we've got a couple prospects coming up who should fill that role in a year or two. One of those is Jose Martinez, who could be part of an all-Texas League All Star infield in Springfield, this season.

At this point, it appears too early to project Herron as an ML starter. He might make it, but he hasn't shown that much yet.

Sounds like there is no fit for a trade with St. Louis.

[Migrant Redbird]

Sounds like there is no fit for a trade with St. Louis.

There's a very good fit if the O's want to have a decent DH, and if La Russa hadn't basically said that Duncan was off limits.

However, if you went by fan assessments of their own players, no trade would ever get done. How many Mariners fans didn't think they gave up too much for Bedard?

[brvn52]

I might have given up Rasmus -- begrudgingly -- for Bedard. I wouldn't consider giving him up for Roberts, unless you threw in an "ML ready" shortstop. But as bad as the Cardinals middle infielders are right now, the prospects are looking up and it could change dramatically for the better in a year or two.

Ok...I never figured we'd get Rasmus back, I was just wondering how much you valued him.

I think that you'd probably find very few Cardinals fans willing to give up Duncan straight up for Roberts either. Duncan is probably going to be a plus 800 OPS slugger for the next several years -- barring injuries -- and might even reach the plus 1.000 and be the next "Big Papi". If he were a decent outfielder, and if the Cards didn't have a surplus of young outfielders right not, you probably wouldn't find very many Cards fans even considering trading him off. I'd rather go with Ludwick, Barton, or Mather in left field -- all of whom provide plus outfield defense -- given that Rasmus is expected to own center after this season and Ankiel will probably move back to right unless he goes free agency.

Ok. Value-wise, if that's how much you value Duncan, than that's fine and for arguments sake I'll say they are the same exact value. Wouldn't dealing Roberts for Duncan straight up be a bad deal for the O's since they are creating a bigger whole at 2B then they had before at 1B?

Are you kidding me? You don't have any "DH/1B/LF type guys"! Last year, the O's were 11th in OPS from the DH spot, with a meager .737. You got an .813 from your first basemen -- which is OK, but nothing to brag about for a 1st baseman. In LF, you were last in the league, with a microscopic .631! Sheesh, the Cards had 4 pitchers with a higher OPS than that! (Admittedly, 2 of them only had 1 at bat....)

Duncan's OPS was .952 in 314 plate appearances his rookie season, and a lot of people figured it was an anomaly. In 2007, his OPS was .936 at the end of July. It plummeted to .541 for the month of August, when he was trying to play through a sports hernia, but he also posted a 1.140 the month before, in July.

If healthy, I think Duncan probably puts up .900 to 1.000 against right handers. He still needs to develop against southpaws -- he only has 142 career plate appearances in total so far against left handers -- not enough to know if he can improve much against them or not.

My point about the DH/1B/LF was that we have too many players on the roster to make that kind of deal. Millar, Gibbons, Huff, Scott, and even Moore to a degree. The point is, until we deal 1 or 2 of them, it doesn't make too much sense bringing in a guy at the same position.

I know we're weak at DH/1B/LF, but we're also improving. Jay Payton has been upgraded to Luke Scott - huge upgrade. In addition, a lot of people believe that we have a shot at Teixeria next year. He would play 1B. So that leaves DH. With Rowell, Snyder, and other young guys coming through the minors, one figures to fill that hole at DH. My point is, we need to be looking to improve mainly the MI and keep adding pitching depth. We could get much more value from a couple young MIers and pitchers, than Duncan. That's not a knock on him at all. It's just the team has more pressing needs.

Perez is the heir apparent for Isringhausen; I don't see him getting dealt for a 2nd baseman, since we've got a couple prospects coming up who should fill that role in a year or two. One of those is Jose Martinez, who could be part of an all-Texas League All Star infield in Springfield, this season.

At this point, it appears too early to project Herron as an ML starter. He might make it, but he hasn't shown that much yet.

I understand that he is your long-term replacement. However, trading for Roberts means you want to win now. If you traded Perez, Martinez, and Herron for Roberts, you would not be altering your team at all. You'd give up a future reliever and a SS prospect along with a guy that may not even project as a ML starter for an All-Star 2B. That's not that bad of a deal.

[brvn52]

There's a very good fit if the O's want to have a decent DH, and if La Russa hadn't basically said that Duncan was off limits.

However, if you went by fan assessments of their own players, no trade would ever get done. How many Mariners fans didn't think they gave up too much for Bedard?

But why would the Orioles create such a huge whole at 2B to upgrade at 1B when they're not even trying to compete this year? Especially when that 2B is arguably the face of the franchise (at the current time).

[davearm]

LOL why would the O's trade Roberts for Chris Duncan when they could get Matt Murton and two or three other guys from the Cubs instead?

Duncan's no better than Murton. Somewhat different, but not better.

Over the next 7 years, PECOTA projects Duncan at 0.260/0.355/0.476/0.830 with clearly subpar defense in LF; Murton shows 0.294/0.360/0.460/0.820 with roughly average defense in LF.

Duncan's 7-year WARP comes in at 15.2 in 2976 PAs; Murton is at 10.8 in 1984 PAs. Normalize for PAs (since WARP is a counting stat), and Murton jumps to 16.4.

Neither one of these guys is worth Roberts straight up. Not even close.

[brvn52]

LOL why would the O's trade Roberts for Chris Duncan when they could get Matt Murton and two or three other guys from the Cubs instead?

Duncan's no better than Murton. Somewhat different, but not better.

Over the next 7 years, PECOTA projects Duncan at 0.260/0.355/0.476/0.830 with clearly subpar defense in LF; Murton shows 0.294/0.360/0.460/0.820 with roughly average defense in LF.

Duncan's 7-year WARP comes in at 15.2 in 2976 PAs; Murton is at 10.8 in 1984 PAs. Normalize for PAs (since WARP is a counting stat), and Murton jumps to 16.4.

Neither one of these guys is worth Roberts straight up. Not even close.

Thank you. And even if he was better and equal to Roberts as far as value goes, it would still be a dumb deal for the O's as they create an even bigger hole at 2B. The O's are trading to get multiple pieces back.

[Ballgame64]

Here is another FWIW comment from a beat writer.

The Cubs still have one of their top scouts, Ken Kravec, in Florida monitoring Roberts. But talks have been on hold.

The story is located at

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-080302-mark-derosa-brian-roberts,0,932693.story

Who knows what is really going on anymore.

[bigbird]

Here is another FWIW comment from a beat writer.

The Cubs still have one of their top scouts, Ken Kravec, in Florida monitoring Roberts. But talks have been on hold.

The story is located at

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-080302-mark-derosa-brian-roberts,0,932693.story

Who knows what is really going on anymore.

That's because he may be heading to Cleveland.