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vs. BLUE JAYS, 4/22


OFFNY

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    • Same! Especially since there is an active thread on potential trades with the Jays.  Joining the taxi squad means he isn't actually on the roster yet, correct? There would have to be an IL or other roster move. If we think he is starting on Thursday, will we perhaps option Tate or Akin after they pitch today? 
    • This is a good point, and I edited my post a couple of minutes ago to note that possibilty.
    • To give some context to this discussion, I spent some time gathering data on every team’s draft during Elias’ time with the Orioles.   Here’s a summary of what I found. 235 players drafted from 2019 to now have reached the major leagues, and they have produced 203.9 WAR to date.  That averages out to 7.8 players and 6.8 WAR per team.  Of those totals, 66 players (2.2 per team) were first rounders who produced 99.0 WAR (3.3 per team); 169 (5.6 per team) were from later rounds and have produced 104.9 WAR (3.5 per team). The Orioles easily lead MLB in WAR produced by the players they’ve drafted who’ve reached the majors, at 28.0 WAR.  The other top teams are Atlanta 20.1, Cincinnati 15.2, Kansas City 14.8, NY Yankees 12.7, and Arizona at 12.6.   In terms of total players who’ve reached the majors, it’s SEA 14, AZD 13, ATL 13, MIA 12, LAD 11, and BAL and DET 10. As to the 66 players drafted in the first round who’ve reached the majors, the DBacks lead with 6, while the Orioles, Rangers and Pirates have produced 5.  Nobody else has more than 3.   In terms of 1st round WAR, the O’s again easily lead with 15.6, followed by the Royals 10.0, the DBacks 9.7, Reds 7.6, and Blue Jays 7.1.   As to the 169 players drafted after the first round who nave reached the majors,  the Mariners lead with 12, followed by Atlanta and Miami at 10.   The Orioles, with 5, are just below the 5.6 mean, and tied for 16th most.   However, when it comes to WAR, the Orioles rank second at 12.4, trailing only the Braves at 17.7.  Cleveland ranks a distant 3rd at 8.4.    It is important to note that this is a very incomplete picture.  There are many players from these drafts who will reach the majors, but haven’t yet.  Of the 235 players to reach the majors so far, 133 were drafted in 2019, 46 in 2020 (which was only a 5-round draft), 41 in 2021, 12 in 2022, and 3 in 2023.   We know from history that eventually about 150 players per draft will end up getting some time in the majors (probably considerably less for the short 2020 draft).    But that’s partly the point.  It will be a long time before we really know how Elias & co. did in the post-1st round phase of the 2019-23 drafts, and how that compares with other teams. For now, we know that they drafted one superstar in the second round.  The ultimate future of the other four who’ve reached the majors (Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz and Norby) is uncertain, though I’d certainly invest in some Ortiz futures. And who else will emerge as a legit major leaguer, for the O’s and other team, is hard to say.  There are tons of guys who’ve debuted but have struggled so far, who eventually will find their footing.  Check back again in a couple of years.     
    • Just think of it as him having already earned it but he was blocked.
    • Nick Pivetta shoved on Atlanta this afternoon.
    • I happened to see Tigers GM Scott Harris on MLB Now about a week ago, and he seemed to pimp it out POBO style describing "the latent talent" his people thought they could unlock. We get more than our 54% here in this era, but nobody gets 100%. Since that interview they've also had to demote their 1-1 Spencer Torkelson years into his career, so there is that. Trade deadlines so far, Jack Flaherty is the one starter Elias has beaten the competition on.
    • You are probably right, but their bats stink and they aren’t going anywhere without offense, which they could acquire with the savings from unloading the Keller contract.
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