An Alternate Offseason

[Can_of_corn]

I touched on this last night and want to explore it a bit more in depth.

This season's payroll is up 11 million over 2014. Most of us think that Dan spent pretty much all of his authorized budget but did he spent it correctly?

Despite the losses of Cruz, Miller and Markakis I think Dan's goal in the offseason was to keep as much of the core together that he could.

The arbitration raises severely limited his financial flexibility.

So what if he had cut ties with all the questionable arbitration cases?

I pretty much wanted Dan to cut ties with Matusz, Hunter and De Aza.

5.0 + 4.65 + 3.2 = 12.85 million. They could be replaced with Wright, TJ and Reimold who would cost the O's ~ 1 million.

Now if he really wanted to be aggressive then he also could have cut Davis and Wieters loose.

12.0 + 8.3 = 20.3 million. Obviously the O's can continue as they are without Wieters. They could put Pearce at first which would leave a roster slot open at the league minimum.

How much worse would the team be? What could have been added to the team with 30 million to spend?

[eddie83]

At that point it comes back the risk of long term deals. I don't see an impact one year deal this offseason unless I am missing someone. I think one issue is whether or not the Orioles will be willing to go in another direction at some point and are willing to eat some money. The pitching staff minus Miller is all back. I would not have cut Wieters or Davis. We have no replacement for Davis as it is. Your point being that cutting those guys would not have hurt us to this point is accurate with DeAza, Matusz and Hunter.

[Bahama O's Fan]

How can you ever count on Reimold for anything? Wright has been out all year, so that doesn't help us. TJ basically replacing Hunter and Matusz in that plan? Can you cut Wieters if he is on the D.L.? If Davis is gone and Pearce is at 1B, how bad would our OF and 2B be? If we bring Cruz back, perhaps we never discover Paredes.

[Can_of_corn]

At that point it comes back the risk of long term deals. I don't see an impact one year deal this offseason unless I am missing someone. I think one issue is whether or not the Orioles will be willing to go in another direction at some point and are willing to eat some money. The pitching staff minus Miller is all back. I would not have cut Wieters or Davis. We have no replacement for Davis as it is. Your point being that cutting those guys would not have hurt us to this point is accurate with DeAza, Matusz and Hunter.

I didn't say it would not have hurt us, I asked what the impact would have been on the team. The purpose of the thread is not to say Dan screwed up but to explore the consequences of doing things differently.

I added Davis and Wieters since some folks were suggesting they be non-tendered. Obviously in hindsight Norris would have been added to the list but I don't think anyone was seriously suggesting that at the time.

[Can_of_corn]

How can you ever count on Reimold for anything? Wright has been out all year' date=' so that doesn't help us. TJ basically replacing Hunter and Matusz in that plan? Can you cut Wieters if he is on the D.L.? If Davis is gone and Pearce is at 1B, how bad would our OF and 2B be? If we bring Cruz back, perhaps we never discover Paredes.[/quote']

I think Reimold can produce the sub-replacement level production De Aza has produced, for a fifth the money.

By Wright I was speaking of Mike not Wesley.

You could have certainly non-tendered Wieters.

I didn't suggest bringing back Cruz.

In fact I didn't say that the alternate choices would be better, I was just exploring it as an exercise in off season strategy.

Thanks for not playing.

[DrungoHazewood]

How can you ever count on Reimold for anything?

Reimold is hitting about as well in Norfolk as De Aza is in the majors, so the offense would be a bit worse. Reimold isn't remotely as good a glove as De Aza.

[mdbdotcom]

I don't think the team would be better, and it would give the fan base even more ammunition for saying the O's don't care and are cheap.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think the team would be better, and it would give the fan base even more ammunition for saying the O's don't care and are cheap.

If they had entered the season with a payroll 20 million lower then last season then sure. The idea of the exercise is that the O's would have actually used the 30 million.

[mdbdotcom]

If they had entered the season with a payroll 20 million lower then last season then sure. The idea of the exercise is that the O's would have actually used the 30 million.

Well, it certainly wouldn't have helped if they'd used the money to sign Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabrera, as I advocated at one point. In a more lucid moment I wrote that I expected this to be a transition season for the Orioles, and that with so many question marks it would be foolish to make major acquisitions without seeing first if this team could compete. We're still waiting for an inclination that they can, and I still think there was no way of knowing during the off-season which pieces would perform and which would come up short.

[eddie83]

If they had entered the season with a payroll 20 million lower then last season then sure. The idea of the exercise is that the O's would have actually used the 30 million.

I do think that Laroche made sense as mdbdotcom said, Melky at that money was a big risk. Right now we seem to be an organization that will retain it's own players if the deals are team friendly and have no desire-outside of Ubaldo- to take risks in FA. Unless we start developing more position player talent we are going to turn into the Rays on offense I am afraid. Hard to keep finding a McLouth, Pearce and Paredes type every year.

[weams]

Hard to keep finding a McLouth, Pearce and Paredes type every year.

No harder than avoiding a Nolasco, Romero, Fielder, Figgins, Hamilton each year.

[backwardsk]

We could have traded Bundy and Cisco for Matt Kemp. His home run would have helped the offense.

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[weams]

I don't think the team would be better, and it would give the fan base even more ammunition for saying the O's don't care and are cheap.

For this exercise, assume a 120 million dollar payroll was authorized. And would be spent. And not hoarded in greedy little piles of gold doubloons.

[weams]

We could have traded Bundy and Cisco for Matt Kemp. His home run would have helped the offense.

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Which day was it. It really might have.

[weams]

We could have traded Bundy and Cisco for Matt Kemp. His home run would have helped the offense.

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I am pretty sure it was Gausman, not Bundy.