Is it too early to call the J.J. Hardy extension a mistake?

[Larry18]

Baseball Reference has the 9th place hitter, AL only, having 9126 PA or 608.4 PA per team. This is for the 2016 season.

[jabba72]

I was curious whether this was true or not, so I tried to find out. Found one blog post about it here that says that the #9 spot in 2009 averaged about 620 PAs over the course of the season. I didn't check the research myself but that sounds plausible. So it's possible for someone at the bottom of the lineup to get over 600 PAs, but they'd have to play almost every game.

The quality of the lineup has alot to do with it. The Red Sox #9 hitter will get many more PA's than, say Tampa's #9. But Hardy reaching 150-155 games is just not realistic. If he played 150 games and still misses the 600 plateau...ouch.

[thezeroes]

In 2016, here are the plate appearances for the different teams in the American League while batting NINTH in the order. (the least to the most) [TABLE]

<colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:841;width:17pt" width="23"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1389;width:29pt" width="38"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1280; width:26pt" width="35" span="2"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]

[TD=width: 23, align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=width: 38]LAA[/TD]

[TD=width: 35]PA's[/TD]

[TD=width: 35, align: right]591[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD]NYY[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]594

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD]OAK[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]594[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD]TBR[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]599[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD]BAL[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]599[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD]CHW[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]602[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD]KCR[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]604[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[TD]TEX[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]606[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]614[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD]DET[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]615[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD]CLE[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]616[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD]HOU[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]619[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD]SEA[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]620[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

[TD]MIN[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]625[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]15[/TD]

[TD]BOS[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]628[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

[Frobby]

In 2016, here are the plate appearances for the different teams in the American League while batting NINTH in the order. (the least to the most) [TABLE]

<colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:841;width:17pt" width="23"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1389;width:29pt" width="38"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1280; width:26pt" width="35" span="2"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]

[TD=width: 23, align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=width: 38]LAA[/TD]

[TD=width: 35]PA's[/TD]

[TD=width: 35, align: right]591[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD]NYY[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]594

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD]OAK[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]594[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD]TBR[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]599[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD]BAL[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]599[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD]CHW[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]602[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD]KCR[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]604[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[TD]TEX[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]606[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]614[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD]DET[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]615[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD]CLE[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]616[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD]HOU[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]619[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD]SEA[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]620[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

[TD]MIN[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]625[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=align: right]15[/TD]

[TD]BOS[/TD]

[TD]PA's[/TD]

[TD=align: right]628[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

This should correlate almost exactly with team OBP. The higher the OBP, the more plate appearances there will be.

[OFFNY]

On 9/7/2016 at 0:23 AM, OFFNY said:

o

 

As the 2016 season is winding down, I believe that Hardy's contract is looking better now than it was one year ago.

I feel like he has been a stabilizing force this season (particularly on defense), and that even though the Orioles went 24-18 in his absence, I believe that he was missed when he went down with a broken foot earlier this season.

Last season was a dreary one, both for Hardy as an individual, and for the Orioles as a team.

As the 2016 season winds down, things are looking much brighter ........ both for Hardy individually, and for the Orioles as a team.

 

o

 

 

On 10/8/2016 at 6:42 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

Hardy had a solid season this year, albeit while missing some time with a broken foot.

His previous 3-year extension was a steal.

The current extension looks OK.

 

o

o

 

Hardy appears to be healthy, early on in the final year of his latest extension.

As I previously stated, his previous 3-year extension (3 years for $21 Million from 2012 through 2014) was a steal. 

His current 3-year extension (3 years for $38 Million from 2015 through 2017, plus a $2 Million Buyout option for 2018 ), has not been a steal, but it has been far from disastrous.

I'm glad that he's still with us.

 

o

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

 

 

o

 

Hardy appears to be healthy, early on in the final year of his latest extension.

As I previously stated, his previous 3-year extension (3 years for $21 Million from 2012 through 2014) was a steal. 

His current 3-year extension (3 years for $38 Million from 2015 through 2017, plus a $2 Million Buyout option for 2018 ), has not been a steal, but it has been far from disastrous.

I'm glad that he's still with us.

 

o

This year will determine whether it was a decent deal.    The first year was pretty awful.    Last year was very solid though he missed a month with a broken foot.   If 2017 is like 2016 I'll feel it was a good move.    If it's like 2015, then I won't.   

[25 Nuggets]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

This year will determine whether it was a decent deal.    The first year was pretty awful.    Last year was very solid though he missed a month with a broken foot.   If 2017 is like 2016 I'll feel it was a good move.    If it's like 2015, then I won't.   

That sounds about right.

Overall counting the previous contract, I'm very glad Hardy's been part of the Oriole renaissance.

[sportsfan8703]

On 4/8/2017 at 3:44 PM, OFFNY said:

 

 

o

 

Hardy appears to be healthy, early on in the final year of his latest extension.

As I previously stated, his previous 3-year extension (3 years for $21 Million from 2012 through 2014) was a steal. 

His current 3-year extension (3 years for $38 Million from 2015 through 2017, plus a $2 Million Buyout option for 2018 ), has not been a steal, but it has been far from disastrous.

I'm glad that he's still with us.

 

o

Not meant to be a negative bump, but if JJ gets to 650 PA's this season than a vesting option kicks in for next year at 14 million.  I like JJ, but that can't happen.  The extension hasn't been disastrous but another year at 14 million might make it so.       

Keep in mind JJ hasn't had more than 450ish PA's the last two seasons because of injury.  Plus he routinely bats 9th.  Hopefully JJ has a healthy and productive season and falls just short of the PA kicker for the option.  

[Frobby]

The threshold for his option to become vested is 600 PA, not 650.     As discussed earlier in this thread, it's still almost impossible for Hardy to reach 600 PA so long as he's batting at the bottom of the order.    Buck's already rested him once, and hopefully he'll sit Hardy twice a month or so.    That easily would keep him short of 600 PA.     He'd probably need to play 158 games to reach that number.   

[LC_O's_87]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Not meant to be a negative bump, but if JJ gets to 650 PA's this season than a vesting option kicks in for next year at 14 million.  I like JJ, but that can't happen.  The extension hasn't been disastrous but another year at 14 million might make it so.       

Keep in mind JJ hasn't had more than 450ish PA's the last two seasons because of injury.  Plus he routinely bats 9th.  Hopefully JJ has a healthy and productive season and falls just short of the PA kicker for the option.  

 I understand the option vests if Hardy hits the incentive, but does that just mean the club still has the choice of whether to keep him at $14mil for 2018 or buy him out for $2million?  And as the corollary, if he doesn't hit the incentive then he's automatically a free agent and the club doesn't owe him anything?

[25 Nuggets]

Assuming the option does not vest, and I think that's a reasonable assumption at this point -- what is the team going to do at SS?  Finally move Manny over, for one season?  Play Paul Janish there full time?

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Assuming the option does not vest, and I think that's a reasonable assumption at this point -- what is the team going to do at SS?  Finally move Manny over, for one season?  Play Paul Janish there full time?

According to Jon Heyman's News and Notes column from last week, the O's are unlikely to move Manny to short for a season.

Quote

 the plan is to keep Machado at third base, as they do not want to remove someone who may be the best all-time at that position even to fill a possible shortstop need. Instead, the likelihood is, they shop for a shortstop.

[Going Underground]

4 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Assuming the option does not vest, and I think that's a reasonable assumption at this point -- what is the team going to do at SS?  Finally move Manny over, for one season?  Play Paul Janish there full time?

Ryan Flaherty is also a free agent. Can we afford to lose both. j/k.

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, LC_O's_87 said:

 I understand the option vests if Hardy hits the incentive, but does that just mean the club still has the choice of whether to keep him at $14mil for 2018 or buy him out for $2million?  And as the corollary, if he doesn't hit the incentive then he's automatically a free agent and the club doesn't owe him anything?

No, it means that the O's are committed to exercise the option.  

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Assuming the option does not vest, and I think that's a reasonable assumption at this point -- what is the team going to do at SS?  Finally move Manny over, for one season?  Play Paul Janish there full time?

Is there any scenario where Mancini hits so much the club just has to ask Davis to practice 3B over the winter?  This is assuming Mancini can't fake an OF corner better than Davis/Trumbo could handle the IF corners in 2018.

More realistically, I feel like the Orioles and Hardy could end up with a 1 year renewal for next year.

If you assume Hardy doesn't want to spend any of his last years picking up a check in the second division, Baltimore 2018 is probably his best bet.  Among teams FG projects at .500 or above rest of season, only the Cardinals and Rays seem like other clubs he might be able to start for next year, and even those doors could close if Aledmys Diaz doesn't implode or Matt Duffy's health cooperates.

The drama here might be does Duquette want Hardy one more year and it happens early ala Castillo this offseason, or do we wait it out?