Fangraphs: BABIP Aging Curves

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/babip-aging-curves/

This is plotted on the same scale as the previous chart so we can appreciate the relative differences. For this sample, the BABIP for power hitters declined from .313 at age 22 to .296 at age 36. Interestingly enough, power hitters had higher BABIPs earlier in their careers than the general population (including the power hitters), which then dip lower than the general population later in their careers. Apparently hitting the ball hard does have some benefits.

This time, the science backs up the hypothesis! My engineering professors would be so proud. With a p-value of 0.0165, the difference in BABIP between a 36 year old power hitter and a 22 year old power hitter is statistically significant.

[Frobby]

So...signing a 34-year old power hitter to a four-year deal is a bad bet? And maybe signing a 30-year old power hitter is, too? Of course, the fallacy here is that you aren't paying the power hitters for the balls they hit in play, but for the ones they hit where you have to buy a ticket to catch it.

[weams]

So...signing a 34-year old power hitter to a four-year deal is a bad bet? And maybe signing a 30-year old power hitter is, too? Of course, the fallacy here is that you aren't paying the power hitters for the balls they hit in play, but for the ones they hit where you have to buy a ticket to catch it.

And with no penalty to the club for signing a PED FA, it is a new undervalued resource. As long as you know they will keep using.