Sun: Connolly's scale of return: 4 for Davis

[weams]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-davis-free-agent-profile-1101-20151031-story.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Conservatively, Davis could get a five-year deal worth about $125 million. But a six- or seven-year deal worth between $150 million and $200 million is more likely. The largest contract in Orioles history is Adam Jones' six-year, $85.5 million contract, which he signed in 2012. Agent Scott Boras always seems to find one team willing to make a major investment in his elite clients. An interesting comparison is Mark Teixeira (Mount Saint Joseph), a former client of Boras' who landed an eight-year, $180 million deal with the New York Yankees in 2009, months before his 29th birthday.

As soon as the last out of World Series is made, six Orioles become free agents. The club then has five days to work out contract extensions before players can begin negotiating with other teams.

Rarely do players sign during that exclusive period, and Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette said recently that he expected all six to test the market.

[abbott]

If Dan expects all 6 to test the market then all 6 will sign else where. If the Orioles didn't show sufficent internet in any to get them to stay, then why would they? The Orioles have been firm in the belief that an open market is a flawed system and they will not over pay merely because the free and open market sets the price

[weams]

If Dan expects all 6 to test the market then all 6 will sign else where. If the Orioles didn't show sufficent internet in any to get them to stay, then why would they? The Orioles have been firm in the belief that an open market is a flawed system and they will not over pay merely because the free and open market sets the price

All free agents sign after the exclusive period at this points. Not just all Orioles FAs. Look at history.

No. You are not correct in the bolded either. They have been a team that has been constructed without mega FAs because of market size. And have done well since Dan Duquette took over with what was permitted to be spent by ownership.

[weams]

If Dan expects all 6 to test the market then all 6 will sign else where. If the Orioles didn't show sufficent internet in any to get them to stay, then why would they? The Orioles have been firm in the belief that an open market is a flawed system and they will not over pay merely because the free and open market sets the price

I think all players should immediately be declared Free and Unrestricted Free Agents. With a 200 million dollar salary cap. A hard cap. With no guaranteed contracts.

[Can_of_corn]

I think all players should immediately be declared Free and Unrestricted Free Agents. With a 200 million dollar salary cap. A hard cap. With no guaranteed contracts.

What's the floor? 190?

[weams]

What's the floor? 190?

No floor. None. If you don't spend enough to be competitive, you get given to DC or Washington or Montreal or Puerto Rico. For instance, if you are not in the playoffs once in ten season, you get passed to the next guy in line that wants a club. Ownership felony conviction or corporate federal fines are immediate dis-qualifiers.

[JLee2027]

I think all players should immediately be declared Free and Unrestricted Free Agents. With a 200 million dollar salary cap. A hard cap. With no guaranteed contracts.

Baseball desperately needs a cap, so I like this.

[Going Underground]

Baseball desperately needs a cap, so I like this.

They really do.If Tampa is going to do a payroll around 70 million and the Dodgers over 300 million. I have been reading that most teams want to lower or keep their payroll about the same Mets will not sign Cepedes and Cueto not with the Royals Nationals will probably have a lowe payroll.Lerner ,even with his money is not wanting to spend big.

[Frobby]

Conservatively, Davis could get a five-year deal worth about $125 million. But a six- or seven-year deal worth between $150 million and $200 million is more likely.

I think Connolly is pretty far off base here. Davis won't get anywhere near $200 mm. He might see $150 mm on a 7-year deal. He hasn't been consistent enough to earn a contract like Teixeira's, even considering the salary inflation that has occurred since Tex signed his deal.

[weams]

I think Connolly is pretty far off base here. Davis won't get anywhere near $200 mm. He might see $150 mm on a 7-year deal. He hasn't been consistent enough to earn a contract like Teixeira's, even considering the salary inflation that has occurred since Tex signed his deal.

He could be wrong. We will see. He could be right. He Picked Toronto to win the East this year. Back in January.

[waroriole]

I think Connolly is pretty far off base here. Davis won't get anywhere near $200 mm. He might see $150 mm on a 7-year deal. He hasn't been consistent enough to earn a contract like Teixeira's, even considering the salary inflation that has occurred since Tex signed his deal.

He's averaged 42 HR over the last 3 years. There's a clear power outage in MLB. Never underestimate the ability of one club to lose their minds.

[Frobby]

He could be wrong. We will see. He could be right. He Picked Toronto to win the East this year. Back in January.

I also said Totonto was our biggest threat. You were very dismissive of them, even well into the season, as I recall.

General rule of thumb: a player will have about equal production before age 30 and in his 30's. Davis has been worth 14.7 rWAR in his career. That's worth maybe $105 mm at today's prices. Even if you assume he's going to be more productive after age 30 than he was before age 30, is he really likely to be 50-100% more valuable?

Tex, by the way, was worth 36.5 rWAR before his age 30 season, 15.9 since. His agree 29 season was post-FA with the Yankees (5.3 rWAR). So, the Yankees have gotten 21.3 rWAR from him for $157 mm.

[weams]

I also said Totonto was our biggest threat. You were very dismissive of them, even well into the season, as I recall.

General rule of thumb: a player will have about equal production before age 30 and in his 30's. Davis has been worth 14.7 rWAR in his career. That's worth maybe $105 mm at today's prices. Even if you assume he's going to be more productive after age 30 than he was before age 30, is he really likely to be 50-100% more valuable?

Tex, by the way, was worth 36.5 rWAR before his age 30 season, 15.9 since. His agree 29 season was post-FA with the Yankees (5.3 rWAR). So, the Yankees have gotten 21.3 rWAR from him for $157 mm.

I was completely wrong. Completely. Of course they are now losers too. I just dislike them so I'll take my shots whenever they are open. Also, Teixeira was 6 years ago. Yeah, the top end salaries have gone up 30% in that time.

[sportsfan8703]

I do buy into what he says about Boras always getting a huge offer for one of his elite FA's. It'll happen. Some team will come out of nowhere and give him 7/150. It's going to not be fun. I think we can afford to lose Chen, MW and O'day, but Davis is going to be the one that really hurts.

[tntoriole]

I think all players should immediately be declared Free and Unrestricted Free Agents. With a 200 million dollar salary cap. A hard cap. With no guaranteed contracts.

When the Seitz decision declared the end to the reserve clause, Charley Finley had exactly that proposal to his fellow owners. "Make them all free agents." Finley recognized instantly that only allowing a small number of free agents per year AND having an arbitration system would artificially drive salaries up compared to every player being a free agent.

Marvin Miller, in his biography, wrote that this was the one possibility that terrified him, i.e. that the owners would listen to Finley. "You couldn't very well argue against freedom", Miller said. But, fortunately for millionaire players ever since, the other owners hated Finley.