The Pessimistic View

[Can_of_corn]

No, it should not be a reason to point to future success. But again, modeling future successes in baseball is so terribly difficult to do. The one way to predict future success is to assume current and past failure.

Like stocks. You don't buy them when they are going good. You buy them when they are tanking.

So you are saying don't buy in right before the bubble is about to burst?

[weams]

So you are saying don't buy in right before the bubble is about to burst?

If you want to pick a 2020 playoff team, look at one of the teams that has been last three out of the last five seasons. Not middling. Last.

[Redskins Rick]

I don't see a core of 30+ players like Hardy, O'Day and Davis as a reason for optimism.

Sorry, I see Davis as the best HR hitter in the game, and he should remain so for a few years.

I see O'Day as a very solid lights out setup dude, who can also fill-in as closer if needed, again, he should be just fine for the next 3-4 years.

Hardy is a question mark, but you also have Hardy, AJ and Schoop, and Caleb.

So the glass is not half empty.

[Can_of_corn]

Sorry, I see Davis as the best HR hitter in the game, and he should remain so for a few years.

I see O'Day as a very solid lights out setup dude, who can also fill-in as closer if needed, again, he should be just fine for the next 3-4 years.

Hardy is a question mark, but you also have Hardy, AJ and Schoop, and Caleb.

So the glass is not half empty.

You think Davis will lead the league in HR over the course of the 2016-2018 seasons?

[Redskins Rick]

You think Davis will lead the league in HR over the course of the 2016-2018 seasons?

Yes I do, if not the actual leader, I don't see him falling lower than 2 or 3 spot in the leader board.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes I do, if not the actual leader, I don't see him falling lower than 2 or 3 spot in the leader board.

OK, I'll go ahead and take the field.

[Redskins Rick]

OK, I'll go ahead and take the field.

You have that right.

Given that 2 of the last 3 years, he has ended up on top and there isn't a ton of HR hitters in either league. I don't think my expectations are unreasonable.

[Frobby]

I don't see a core of 30+ players like Hardy, O'Day and Davis as a reason for optimism.

The median age of the Orioles' lineup last year was 27.9, 7th youngest in MLB. The pitchers averaged 28.3, 15th in the league. Age is not really a problem for this team over the next couple of years.

[Can_of_corn]

The median age of the Orioles' lineup last year was 27.9, 7th youngest in MLB. The pitchers averaged 28.3, 15th in the league. Age is not really a problem for this team over the next couple of years.

I specifically mentioned a core of players, all 30 and over, that the FO has extended. Jones also could fit into that group.

[Frobby]

I specifically mentioned a core of players, all 30 and over, that the FO has extended. Jones also could fit into that group.

Most players who are extended will be playing for that team after age 30, with a few exceptions. If I went through the AL East:

Yankees -- McCann, Tex, Headley, Gardner, Ellsubury, Beltran, ARod, Sabathia, Miller

Red Sox -- Pedroia, Ramirez, Ortiz, Buchholz, Price

Jays -- Martin, Tulowitski, Bautista, Encarnacion, Dickey, Estrada

Tampa -- Loney, Longoria

I just don't think the Orioles' age profile is particularly dangerous in any respect. A bigger issue is that there isn't a lot of talent in the pipeline that can replace players who will become free agents over the next 3 seasons (Wieters, Hardy, Jimenez, Tillman, Gonzalez, Jones, Machado).

[Can_of_corn]

Most players who are extended will be playing for that team after age 30, with a few exceptions. If I went through the AL East:

Yankees -- McCann, Tex, Headley, Gardner, Ellsubury, Beltran, ARod, Sabathia, Miller

Red Sox -- Pedroia, Ramirez, Ortiz, Buchholz, Price

Jays -- Martin, Tulowitski, Bautista, Encarnacion, Dickey, Estrada

Tampa -- Loney, Longoria

I just don't think the Orioles' age profile is particularly dangerous in any respect. A bigger issue is that there isn't a lot of talent in the pipeline that can replace players who will become free agents over the next 3 seasons (Wieters, Hardy, Jimenez, Tillman, Gonzalez, Jones, Machado).

I think that allocating significant resources for older players with hard to move contracts is not a wise course of action.

[MrOrange82]

Most players who are extended will be playing for that team after age 30, with a few exceptions. If I went through the AL East:

Yankees -- McCann, Tex, Headley, Gardner, Ellsubury, Beltran, ARod, Sabathia, Miller

Red Sox -- Pedroia, Ramirez, Ortiz, Buchholz, Price

Jays -- Martin, Tulowitski, Bautista, Encarnacion, Dickey, Estrada

Tampa -- Loney, Longoria

I just don't think the Orioles' age profile is particularly dangerous in any respect. A bigger issue is that there isn't a lot of talent in the pipeline that can replace players who will become free agents over the next 3 seasons (Wieters, Hardy, Jimenez, Tillman, Gonzalez, Jones, Machado).

This post made me look up Longoria's contract extension, the full value of which has almost (already) been realized by Tampa Bay (despite the fact that it runs through 2022). Pretty amazing.

EDIT: well, not quite. I started counting the "extension" years earlier than I should have. Still looks like a good value proposition, though, even with Longo's diminished offense.

[big_sparxx]

yeah... I'm going to remind myself that this IS the Pessimists view. Not about to break open the bottle and drown my sorrows yet.

[Frobby]

I think that allocating significant resources for older players with hard to move contracts is not a wise course of action.

This is such a broad statement that it's hard for me to respond concisely. I do not think the Orioles, as a mid-market team, can be overly reliant on free agent acquisitions or extensions. But that doesn't mean they should never extend a player or acquire a free agent. I don't think they are an old team right now, or one that is saddled with numerous long-term contracts of players who will be underperforming badly in the short-to-medium run (by which I mean, the next three years).

[weams]

So you are saying don't buy in right before the bubble is about to burst?

Down 300 points again today.