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The Pessimistic View

Orange

By Orange
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Orange Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Orange

Posted
Posted

And now for the view of the pessimist.

Granted, this is a solid team with an excellent manager, good defense, and some great power hitting. Fine... That gets you 70-something wins. Are you really going into the season with that rotation? Vance Worley should be a long reliever in the NL and Tillman and Gonzalez pitched to their peripherals last year. Jimenez has been a bust and Gausman is having trouble with his secondary stuff. Look, the rotation is the most important part of the team and these guys are just sub-standard across the board.

And, on offense, solo home runs don't win games. In order to hit those vaunted Orioles 3-run home runs you gotta get two guys on base first. I mean, seriously, are you relying on Kim to get this team's OBP to respectability? A 245 pound unproven LF with a weak arm? That's your big FA signing? C'mon man!

The bullpen is solid, but it seems that you are relying a bit too much on Givens and Bundy and if Matusz is your only real lefty you're in big trouble. Disaster waiting to happen.

I like Joseph as the second string catcher, but the bench is otherwise pretty weak. We all love Flaredog, but he can't hit. Plus another Rule V guy? Jimmy Paredes? Oh man.

I can't really argue about the depth at Norfolk or the intangibles of this squad... They should be able to fill the gaps and keep chugging along. But you didn't replace Chen and no one on offense can get on base. Those are really the most important things and they weren't fixed.

The Orioles played over their head in 2014 and came back to earth in 2015. Losing Chen drops them down a few more games to maybe 76 wins, max. And that's if everything else goes well.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I'm sad about how much more I agree with the pessimistic post than the optimistic one...

This is the first time since 2012 that I don't feel like the os are playoff bound.

Hope Schoop and Gausman have monster years, and I'm totally wrong.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So, you got that the Orioles would make the playoff in 2012 off that one game vs. the Red Sox? You win the Orioles Optimist prize!

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Will there be a thread for the Realist's View?

Here's how I see it: the offense is about 20 runs better than last year's, but due to performance variation, could be anywhere from -5 to +45. The pitching is about 15 runs worse than last year (likely partial bounce back by Tillman and Gonzo more than canceled out by loss of Chen, bullpen about the same), but due to performance variation could be anywhere from -10 to +40 runs allowed.

Best case scenario: 758 runs scored, 683 runs allowed, 89-73 Pythagorean record and maybe +3 for good luck and we win 92 games.

Mid case scenario: 733 runs scored, 708 runs allowed, 84-78 Pythagorean record, average luck and we win 84 games.

Worst case scenario: 708 runs scored, 733 runs allowed, 78-84 Pythagorean record and maybe -3 for bad luck and we win 75 games.

That spread actually feels a bit more optimistic to me, compared to how I'm feeling.

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Es4M11 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Es4M11

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Will there be a thread for the Realist's View?

Here's how I see it: the offense is about 20 runs better than last year's, but due to performance variation, could be anywhere from -5 to +45. The pitching is about 15 runs worse than last year (likely partial bounce back by Tillman and Gonzo more than canceled out by loss of Chen, bullpen about the same), but due to performance variation could be anywhere from -10 to +40 runs allowed.

Best case scenario: 758 runs scored, 683 runs allowed, 89-73 Pythagorean record and maybe +3 for good luck and we win 92 games.

Mid case scenario: 733 runs scored, 708 runs allowed, 84-78 Pythagorean record, average luck and we win 84 games.

Worst case scenario: 708 runs scored, 733 runs allowed, 78-84 Pythagorean record and maybe -3 for bad luck and we win 75 games.

That spread actually feels a bit more optimistic to me, compared to how I'm feeling.

This is about where I am at on the subject. The Orioles didn't really do anything to move the needle in the right direction, IMO. Losing Chen far outweighs the additions of Trumbo, Kim, and Worley.

Jones has peaked. Davis will not outperform last year. Hardy is another year older. Wieters will be starting the majority of games at Catcher, much to the detriment of our starting staff. Once again we are counting on a cast of nobodies to hold down the corner outfield positions. Lots of reasons to be concerned.

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gtman55 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

gtman55

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Long time lurker. First post here.

I simply don't understand this front office. We're basically going into this season with the same team as last year but minus one of our best starters and a lefty at that.

We were a .500 team with Chen last year, what are we shooting for... 75 wins this year?

The way I look at it we have a fine group of relievers, a pretty good hitting and fielding team as well. But.. this starting pitching staff wouldn't look out of place on a AAA team.

We're looking at fourth place this year at best.

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