Running out of Home Ganes

[Filmstudy]

That's the Red Sox problem now with 57 home and 40 road played to date (+17). The Orioles have played 51 home, 47 road (+4) and Toronto 51/49 (+2).

The Orioles may face a tougher quality of competition down the stretch, but they still have plenty of home cooking to enjoy.

[ChipTait]

The Sawx are in a very challenging part of the year. The have one scheduled day off before September 1st. Let's hope the O's can keep grinding!

[Bahama O's Fan]

So how many does each have left home and away?

[Frobby]

So how many does each have left home and away?

O's: 30 home, 34 away

Sox: 24 home, 41 away

Jays: 30 home, 32 away

[Sanfran327]

O's: 30 home, 34 away

Sox: 24 home, 41 away

Jays: 30 home, 32 away

I can see 37 more wins for us (20 home; 17 away), which equates to what, 95 wins overall? Probably good enough for the no. 1 overall in the AL, and we won the All Star Game.

[TradeAngelos]

O's: 30 home, 34 away

Sox: 24 home, 41 away

Jays: 30 home, 32 away

Man I can't believe they have 41 on road left. That is awesome.

[Bahama O's Fan]

How is their record home vs away. Is it as lopsided as ours?

[InsideCoroner]

So how many does each have left home and away?

The O's have 30 games left at home, 34 on the road.

Boston, 24 at home, 41 on the road

Toronto, 30 at home, 32 on the road.

If all the clubs continue their current home/away win records for the rest of the year, the final standings would look like this:

BAL - 95-67 (1st)

BOS - 91-71 (4 GB)

TOR - 91-71 (4 GB)

Works for me!

[allquixotic]

So it looks like the division will be pretty close when it comes down to it. The first place team will have a 1 to 4 game advantage over the second place team - not a lot of cushion. It's been tight at the top of the East all year and that looks to continue deep into September.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Frobby]

How is their record home vs away. Is it as lopsided as ours?

No. The Sox are 21-19 on the road. It also should be noted that 10 of their road games are against the Angels, A's and Padres, which are all bad teams, and they have 7 in Tampa as well. So it's not like they couldn't win more than half their road games going forward. But of course, they are better at home, and just playing so many road games may wear on them.

[Filmstudy]

No. The Sox are 21-19 on the road. It also should be noted that 10 of their road games are against the Angels, A's and Padres, which are all bad teams, and they have 7 in Tampa as well. So it's not like they couldn't win more than half their road games going forward. But of course, they are better at home, and just playing so many road games may wear on them.

They are capable of winning well over 50% of their road games, but I look at this a little differently. Whatever record the Orioles can assemble over the last 64 games:

The Red Sox will have to outplay them by approximately .038 to catch them or the Blue Jays will have to play approximately .050 better.

Head-to-head will play a factor, as will the September Effect (winning teams have increased winning percentages in September) for all 3 teams, but if the Orioles can win between 36 and 39 of their remaining games, they will make it very difficult for either team to catch them. I would guess 94 wins (36-28 the rest of the way) will take the division and 88 will be sufficient for a wild card (30-34 from here for the Orioles).

[Frobby]

They are capable of winning well over 50% of their road games, but I look at this a little differently. Whatever record the Orioles can assemble over the last 64 games:

The Red Sox will have to outplay them by approximately .038 to catch them or the Blue Jays will have to play approximately .050 better.

Head-to-head will play a factor, as will the September Effect (winning teams have increased winning percentages in September) for all 3 teams, but if the Orioles can win between 36 and 39 of their remaining games, they will make it very difficult for either team to catch them. I would guess 94 wins (36-28 the rest of the way) will take the division and 88 will be sufficient for a wild card (30-34 from here for the Orioles).

I don't think 88 wins will get a playoff spot this year.

[FlipTheBird]

I don't think 88 wins will get a playoff spot this year.

I don't know... by late August (and then certainly September), the teams in each respective division race...

O's/Sox/Jays

Indians/Tigers

Rangers/Astros/Mariners

... Start to see each other a bit more often. Which starts to mess with the math a bit. I could easily see an 88 win team being involved in the WC game.

[Filmstudy]

I don't think 88 wins will get a playoff spot this year.

For 88 wins NOT to be sufficient, 5 of the following 9 things will have to occur to produce 5 89-win teams (assuming all 3 division winners have 89+ wins):

Orioles (31-33)

Boston (34-36)

Toronto (33-29)

NY (38-25)

Cleveland (33-32)

Det (37-25)

Texas (31-31)

Houston (35-28)

Seattle (39-25)

I see 3 of those as very unlikely (Det, NY, Sea) and all of the others have a chance to fail. I agree that 89 or 90 is significantly safer, but 88 is still where I think the water line is right now.

[Frobby]

For 88 wins NOT to be sufficient, 5 of the following 9 things will have to occur to produce 5 89-win teams (assuming all 3 division winners have 89+ wins):

Orioles (31-33)

Boston (34-36)

Toronto (33-29)

NY (38-25)

Cleveland (33-32)

Det (37-25)

Texas (31-31)

Houston (35-28)

Seattle (39-25)

I see 3 of those as very unlikely (Det, NY, Sea) and all of the others have a chance to fail. I agree that 89 or 90 is significantly safer, but 88 is still where I think the water line is right now.

If the current winning percentages of the teams stayed static the rest of the year, the 2nd wild card would go to Toronto with 91 wins. I think that is your baseline.

I took a look at where the projected "cut line" was on July 25 of each of the past 4 years, in both leagues, based on the teams' wining percentages as of that date. In 5 of the 8 cases, the cut line ended up higher at the end of the season than it had been on July 25, and sometimes by a lot (+7 for the Cubs last year and +5 for the Orioles in 2012). In three cases it was lower, but only one game lower in two instances and 3 games lower in the other. So, I think it is more likely than not that the cut line ends up at 91 or higher.