Trade With the Rays?

[ArtVanDelay]

12 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Wow.  Surprised at the lack of confidence in Bundy in this thread.

I like Bundy but Archer is a high end #2 starter and was considered an ace after 2015.  The odds of Bundy reaching that level are not high. 

And they're under control for the same amount of years.  Bundy doesn't have that kind of value, I don't think.  Maybe if he didn't have his injury history. 

Givens and Mancini aren't enough to balance things out.  It would probably have to be Givens, Sisco, Sedlock in addition to Bundy. 

[25 Nuggets]

8 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I like Bundy but Archer is a high end #2 starter and was considered an ace after 2015.  The odds of Bundy reaching that level are not high. 

And they're under control for the same amount of years.  Bundy doesn't have that kind of value, I don't think.  Maybe if he didn't have his injury history. 

Givens and Mancini aren't enough to balance things out.  It would probably have to be Givens, Sisco, Sedlock in addition to Bundy. 

Thinking from Tampa Bay's perspective, they don't want to trade Archer and would require an overpay to give him up.  Plus it is an in-division trade.

The buzz has been, Jake Odorizzi is the pitcher most likely to go, and the Rays would want a significant bat in return, not another starting pitcher.  The OPs trade proposal of Erasmo Ramirez is also more likely.

...the latest however is that the Rays are moving Brad Miller to 2B, opening up 1B for them to sign one of the remaining bats - prediction is Chris Carter.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I like Bundy but Archer is a high end #2 starter and was considered an ace after 2015.  The odds of Bundy reaching that level are not high. 

And they're under control for the same amount of years.  Bundy doesn't have that kind of value, I don't think.  Maybe if he didn't have his injury history. 

Givens and Mancini aren't enough to balance things out.  It would probably have to be Givens, Sisco, Sedlock in addition to Bundy. 

That is utterly preposterous.    If that kind of return were available from some other team, Tampa would have been crazy not to trade him this winter.   It's not like he's been winning actual games with them (31-41 the last three years).    And I'm not saying that because W-L record is indicative of how good he's been, I'm saying it because they're a bad to mediocre team with him and if they could get four players of that caliber they'd be nuts not to do it.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Thinking from Tampa Bay's perspective, they don't want to trade Archer and would require an overpay to give him up.  Plus it is an in-division trade.

The buzz has been, Jake Odorizzi is the pitcher most likely to go, and the Rays would want a significant bat in return, not another starting pitcher.  The OPs trade proposal of Erasmo Ramirez is also more likely.

...the latest however is that the Rays are moving Brad Miller to 2B, opening up 1B for them to sign one of the remaining bats - prediction is Chris Carter.

I think Smyly is the most likely to go.

I think that if they put Archer on the market they could get a better offer (less risk) than Bundy and Co.

[Frobby]

And I'll admit, my impression of Archer is no doubt impacted by the fact that he's been pretty unimpressive against the Orioles over the years (3-6, 4.50 ERA).

[ArtVanDelay]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That is utterly preposterous.    If that kind of return were available from some other team, Tampa would have been crazy not to trade him this winter.   It's not like he's been winning actual games with them (31-41 the last three years).    And I'm not saying that because W-L record is indicative of how good he's been, I'm saying it because they're a bad to mediocre team with him and if they could get four players of that caliber they'd be nuts not to do it.

How is that preposterous?

An oft-injured unproven starter, a good reliever and platoon DH Trey Mancini do not get you 5 years Chris Archer.  Period. 

The Rays are going to get a massive haul when they trade him. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, ArtVanDelay said:

How is that preposterous?

An oft-injured unproven starter, a good reliever and platoon DH Trey Mancini do not get you 5 years Chris Archer.  Period. 

The Rays are going to get a massive haul when they trade him. 

Hopefully in a couple of years someone will bring this up as if the offer was actually made and will say how glad they are we kept Bundy.

(I think he has a good 20% of reaching Archer level).

[ArtVanDelay]

Would you trade Kevin Gausman for Bundy, Givens and Mancini?

I wouldn't.  Archer is better than Gausman and has 1 more year of control. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Would you trade Kevin Gausman for Bundy, Givens and Mancini?

I wouldn't.  Archer is better than Gausman and has 1 more year of control. 

Archer's contract is also going to be less expensive than what Gausman is going to make in arbitration (assuming he's good).

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hopefully in a couple of years someone will bring this up as if the offer was actually made and will say how glad they are we kept Bundy.

(I think he has a good 20% of reaching Archer level).

I'll be happy to be wrong. 

[ArtVanDelay]

Just found this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-archer-is-likely-to-cost-more-than-chris-sale/

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Just found this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-archer-is-likely-to-cost-more-than-chris-sale/

 

As I alluded to earlier, the Archer contract is way under market value.  The Rays took on some risk early in the process and it paid off big time.

I wish the O's would make those types of moves.

[Babypowder]

15 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Just found this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-archer-is-likely-to-cost-more-than-chris-sale/

 

Control and cost doesn't figure in to trade evaluations. You can totally get Adam Eaton for like Trey Mancini and Brad Brach. He's not a superstar, he won't cost THAT much....

I'm not even sure your package gets it done. The O's don't have a package to get Archer realistically. Bundy is way overvalued here, and Sisco is barely a top 100 guy. Someone could beat that offer easily. 

[oriole]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hopefully in a couple of years someone will bring this up as if the offer was actually made and will say how glad they are we kept Bundy.

(I think he has a good 20% of reaching Archer level).

I have confidence Bundy can be a pretty good starter. It's far from a sure thing though and it might take time. That's why trading him as part of a package for someone we know that could give us production now seems nice. I see the window for contention slamming shut after the Jones, Machado, Britton departures so I think it's worth over paying a little bit for someone like Archer to help win now. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, oriole said:

I have confidence Bundy can be a pretty good starter. It's far from a sure thing though and it might take time. That's why trading him as part of a package for someone we know that could give us production now seems nice. I see the window for contention slamming shut after the Jones, Machado, Britton departures so I think it's worth over paying a little bit for someone like Archer to help win now. 

I don't think so.  I think he's either really good this year or it isn't going to happen for him.