Orioles Pursuing Danny Duffy

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

There is no way I am trading Harvey and/or Hays in a deal for Duffy.   The timing is just ridiculous.   When Harvey then turns into a Cy Young winner a la Jake or someone and Hays is an All Star, then we will say...hmmm...now I know what Seattle Mariners fans must have felt like for all those years.  

That's a pretty bold statement for a guy who has pitched 31 1/3 innings over the last 3 years. At this point he's far more likely to be an injury wash out rather than an MLB regular let alone Cy Young. No team is going to take him as the major piece back, the risk is way way too high.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

There is no way I am trading Harvey and/or Hays in a deal for Duffy.   The timing is just ridiculous.   When Harvey then turns into a Cy Young winner a la Jake or someone and Hays is an All Star, then we will say...hmmm...now I know what Seattle Mariners fans must have felt like for all those years.  

I would trade Harvey because he just can't seem to stay healthy.  It's much more likely he'll never pitch a full season in the majors than that he'll be an above average starter.  Duffy is what the O's hope Harvey becomes, but there's probably a 10% or less chance that happens.  Hays, on the other hand, I would not want to O's to trade him for Duffy, even straight up.  I feel that Hays is going to be an All-Star.  I think he'll be Markakis with more power and better fielding.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

There is no way I am trading Harvey and/or Hays in a deal for Duffy.   The timing is just ridiculous.   When Harvey then turns into a Cy Young winner a la Jake or someone and Hays is an All Star, then we will say...hmmm...now I know what Seattle Mariners fans must have felt like for all those years.  

All the O's top pitching prospects were going to turn into aces and Cy Youngs.  At least that's what I used to believe.  The only one who did was Arrieta. 

[CP0861]

17 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Sure sounds like it.   As for Harvey, of course I'd hate to deal him but just what is the upside of Harvey and what are the chances he reaches it.    I have not heard anyone call him a #1 type starter.    I have read that he's a #2 or even #3.    He's a 92-95 guy with a plus breaking pitch and a changeup that is below average and might become average.   He has not physically made it through a full season, EVER.       If the idea is to get Duffy, I'd certainly prefer to keep Harvey but I don't think I'd have a big problem if he was the only top prospect going back.    

I don't think you can get Duffy without it hurting.   Would you prefer to give up Hays instead of Harvey?    By your comments, I would assume you would prefer to deal Hays.

Here's an article from 2014....right after he was shut down for his elbow in 2014.  So it was written after his 2nd season in the organization....in which he's put up most of his MiLB numbers (25/38 starts). Harvey was 19 at the time.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/8/13/5998229/orioles-may-have-struck-gold-with-hunter-harvey

"In 25 innings split between Rookie Ball and Short Season Aberdeen, Harvey was nothing short of dominant....."

"Even more encouraging, the scouting reports have matched the dominant statistics. I haven’t had a chance to see Harvey live this year, but from video and reports from others, his development has gone extremely well. Most significantly, the talk of Harvey having a chance to have a Major League average curveball is gone and in it’s place is discussion of whether Harvey’s curveball is one of the better curveballs in all of the minor leagues..."

"His fastball, which was his carrying pitch in the draft, now sits comfortably in the 92-94 MPH range with good command and life. Still not close to being filled out, it is easy to project Harvey adding a few more ticks on the radar gun as he develops."

"Harvey is still very young and not close to the Major Leagues, but the Orioles ought to be thrilled with his development thus far.....two present plus pitches that he can throw for strikes, a third pitch that should be roughly Major League average, pitchability, mound presence, and advanced understanding of his craft. In my eyes, Harvey is currently the best high school arm from the 2013 draft.....The Orioles’ picked later in this draft than usual, but they certainly got more than their money’s worth. Baltimore fans no longer talk about just Bundy and Gausman as future rotation cogs, they now talk about a future rotation featuring Bundy, Gausman, and Harvey, and with good reason."

Weren't Harvey and Giolito the 1/2 HS arms in that draft?  He was throwing 92-94 at 19 with a teenager's frame....19 with 2 plus pitches and developing well.  He's had 3 completely unrelated and random injuries (including a fracture from a batted ball - which is just plain bad luck)...and it's not like he's been around forever....Manny similarly had 2 injuries and missed significant time around that same age. Should we have punted him?  Harvey's made 38 career MiLB starts.  The stuff is still there.  I think they'd be complete idiots to trade Harvey for Duffy.  I'm guessing everyone is quick to throw his name out because he's been hurt and "outta sight outta mind" I guess.  He's got legit potential. 

[CP0861]

"As he's worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, Harvey has mostly leaned on his fastball, which topped out at 97 mph and sat 93-96 mph consistently Monday. It was effectively high in the zone in the first inning, but he dotted it on the lower half of the plate as the day went on."

97. 93-96 consistently. In rehab.

"It's just exciting, knowing it's my first offseason just to be normal," Harvey said. "I'm not rehabbing, for once. Just being able to relax and go at it and come into spring training normal, having a normal throwing program and normal workout and everything, I don't have restrictions. I don't have to be crazy about taking it easy or this or that. It's just nice knowing it's all good now. Everything's behind me."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-hunter-harvey-20170904-story.html

 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, CP0861 said:

"As he's worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, Harvey has mostly leaned on his fastball, which topped out at 97 mph and sat 93-96 mph consistently Monday. It was effectively high in the zone in the first inning, but he dotted it on the lower half of the plate as the day went on."

97. 93-96 consistently. In rehab.

"It's just exciting, knowing it's my first offseason just to be normal," Harvey said. "I'm not rehabbing, for once. Just being able to relax and go at it and come into spring training normal, having a normal throwing program and normal workout and everything, I don't have restrictions. I don't have to be crazy about taking it easy or this or that. It's just nice knowing it's all good now. Everything's behind me."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-hunter-harvey-20170904-story.html

 

I agree the stuff is exciting.  There is a lot of risk though, he needs to build up innings and stay healthy.  He also needs to develop a change-up if he wants to stay a starter.

I have him as a 55 FV prospect, same as Chance Sisco.  Sisco doesn't have the same upside, but is much less risky when it comes to MLB value. It comes down to the question do you want a 10% chance at 100 bucks or a 50% chance at 20 bucks.  They both have the expected return of 10 bucks, it just depends on how risk averse you are.

[CP0861]

16 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I agree the stuff is exciting.  There is a lot of risk though, he needs to build up innings and stay healthy.  He also needs to develop a change-up if he wants to stay a starter.

I have him as a 55 FV prospect, same as Chance Sisco.  Sisco doesn't have the same upside, but is much less risky when it comes to MLB value. It comes down to the question do you want a 10% chance at 100 bucks or a 50% chance at 20 bucks.  They both have the expected return of 10 bucks, it just depends on how risk averse you are.

I understand that guys get tainted when they've been injured, but I don't necessarily agree with there being "a lot of risk".  He hasn't had 3 elbow surgeries.  He hasn't had repeated and/or chronic arm issues with his throwing arm/shoulder (like DUFFY).  Sure, he needs to build up innings.....but that's not risk, that's time.  There's not really any reason that Harvey can't come back just as Bundy did. Possibly quicker considering he's further removed from the TJ than Bundy was. Actually, it might be an easier and more efficient process now that they've gone through similar with building Bundy up.

To me, I consider Duffy much more risky. No comparison imo.

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, CP0861 said:

I understand that guys get tainted when they've been injured, but I don't necessarily agree with there being "a lot of risk".  He hasn't had 3 elbow surgeries.  He hasn't had repeated and/or chronic arm issues with his throwing arm/shoulder (like DUFFY).  Sure, he needs to build up innings.....but that's not risk, that's time.  There's not really any reason that Harvey can't come back just as Bundy did. Possibly quicker considering he's further removed from the TJ than Bundy was. Actually, it might be an easier and more efficient process now that they've gone through similar with building Bundy up.

To me, I consider Duffy much more risky. No comparison imo.

The risks are these: Will the stuff hold up under 100+ innings a year?  Will he develop a change-up?  

I think these are fair questions, even without talking about any increased injury risk.

[tntoriole]

10 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

All the O's top pitching prospects were going to turn into aces and Cy Youngs.  At least that's what I used to believe.  The only one who did was Arrieta. 

Mike Mussina...

[tntoriole]

10 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

All the O's top pitching prospects were going to turn into aces and Cy Youngs.  At least that's what I used to believe.  The only one who did was Arrieta. 

Jim Palmer...Dave McNally. 

[Ruzious]

22 hours ago, RZNJ said:

They might be cutting payroll but 4/59 for a 29 year old LHP who put up 3.3 WAR last year in limited innings is not a bad contract.    Tyler Chatwood just got 3/39 without the resume of Duffy.    They are cutting salary but this is not a salary dump.    There will be interested teams to compete for him.

But paying that AND giving up 2 of the O's best prospects to get him... makes absolutely no sense, imo.  

[tntoriole]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

That's only 40-45 years ago.

I know...I was responding to an overgeneralized comment that said since we haven’t produced any Cy Youngs recently (when the organization was staffed by completely different people) then that means we can’t ever do so in the future. 

[tntoriole]

I just don’t get what the plan is if we trade our top two prospects for Danny Duffy...unless it is the Win it All in 2018 approach.  But you can’t trade for Duffy AND then trade Machado...that makes no sense at all. 

[interloper]

Don't think this rumor has much merit any longer.

[tntoriole]

Harvey's motion looks much better to me than it did in 2014....more leg swing and less strain on arm, elbow. 

2014

 

2017