The turning point of this collape

[spiritof66]

33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A competent organization can be competitive with the Orioles' budget.

I don't think any owner of the Orioles has spent as much (compared to his peers) as Angelos.

I don't think an AL East team with the Orioles' revenues, no matter how well run, can compete year in and year out for the post-season -- so long as the NYYs and RS are also competently run. There's too much  difference in revenues, especially since the Nats came along to eat up a big chunk, and a high-spending chunk, of the Orioles' fan base. 

One mistake (in my judgment) that is commonly made is to compare teams' MLB payrolls, which are readily available. But paying its major-league talent is not the only way in which a team invests in its  immediate and future on-field success. Teams invest in bonuses and salaries paid to non-major leaguers, including international free agents, in scouting ML teams, minor leaguers, other teams' MiL players, prospective draftees, and international free agents, in signing  and paying draftees and free agents, in front office personnel, and resources, in minor league managers, coaches, in U.S. and Latin American training facilities., and in other things I'm not aware of or am forgetting. We don't look at those numbers because they're not available to us. We do know that the NYYs and RS have a lot of money to spend on those things and do spend a lot more on some of them than the Orioles. (I think I've found a way to make some rough estimates of teams' total expenditures, and I hope I can post something in a couple of weeks, after I get back from a trip.)

To me, the bottom line is that the have-not teams in the AL East (and to a lesser degree in the NL West and NL Central) can compete for the post-season, but certainly not every year and probably not consistently. To compete, they need to hoard talent that will be productive at  about the same time, sell off valuable talent whose productivity doesn't coincide, and be lucky -- or at least, not to be too unlucky -- in trades, draft picks, signing international free agents, and avoiding key injuries and players' slumps/collapses. To succeed in doing that, it will help for teams like the Orioles to operate and have important decisions made by persons with intelligence,  up-to-date knowledge and understanding about how to win baseball games, and executive ability.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Camden_yardbird said:

The down turn of this collapse was the trade for Manny Parra.  It signall3d a few things.  1.  This organization could properly assess whether they had a competitive product or one in decline.  2.  They gave up a pitcher who could have helped them in the future.  3.  They did not trade players who had value like Davis (which they would have done if they realized they should be sellers).

Many people will point to the wild card game as the breaking point.  I think that was the last in a line of events that really broke this team.

 

4. They could not properly asses Gerardo Parra.  His defense had been in decline and his offensive numbers were buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP.  I said at the time he was probably not an upgrade, turns out he was worse than what they already had.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, spiritof66 said:

I don't think an AL East team with the Orioles' revenues, no matter how well run, can compete year in and year out for the post-season -- so long as the NYYs and RS are also competently run. There's too much  difference in revenues, especially since the Nats came along to eat up a big chunk, and a high-spending chunk, of the Orioles' fan base. 

One mistake (in my judgment) that is commonly made is to compare teams' MLB payrolls, which are readily available. But paying its major-league talent is not the only way in which a team invests in its  immediate and future on-field success. Teams invest in bonuses and salaries paid to non-major leaguers, including international free agents, in scouting ML teams, minor leaguers, other teams' MiL players, prospective draftees, and international free agents, in signing  and paying draftees and free agents, in front office personnel, and resources, in minor league managers, coaches, in U.S. and Latin American training facilities., and in other things I'm not aware of or am forgetting. We don't look at those numbers because they're not available to us. We do know that the NYYs and RS have a lot of money to spend on those things and do spend a lot more on some of them than the Orioles. (I think I've found a way to make some rough estimates of teams' total expenditures, and I hope I can post something in a couple of weeks, after I get back from a trip.)

To me, the bottom line is that the have-not teams in the AL East (and to a lesser degree in the NL West and NL Central) can compete for the post-season, but certainly not every year and probably not consistently. To compete, they need to hoard talent that will be productive at  about the same time, sell off valuable talent whose productivity doesn't coincide, and be lucky -- or at least, not to be too unlucky -- in trades, draft picks, signing international free agents, and avoiding key injuries and players' slumps/collapses. To succeed in doing that, it will help for teams like the Orioles to operate and have important decisions made by persons with intelligence,  up-to-date knowledge and understanding about how to win baseball games, and executive ability.  

That is not my definition of competitive.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Kaven5 said:

Something changed after 1996. Ownership is more worried about the budget than winning.

I think ownership is obsessed with winning, but only with winning now. IMO, that explains every major decision the Orioles have made (other than not signing Cruz, which I'm guessing was not made by ownership), from the allocation of dollars to the ML payroll rather than to signing and developing international talent to the self-destructing focus on retaining the core of the first successful Orioles team in almost 20 years. 

[spiritof66]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is not my definition of competitive.

Do you see a way for the Orioles, Rays, Padres, Rockies D-Backs, Pirates, Reds or Brewers to be competitive within your definition -- without changing the structure of MLB?

The current system works great for the players and for the higherst-revenue teams. MLB is likely to have a close pennant race or races, or at least wildcard race or races, every year. And it has two divisions, the NL East and the AL Central, in which multiple teams have have pretty comparable revenues (unless and until the White Sox get off their asses). If a third of the teams have to approach things a little differently because they're at a large competitive disadvantage, who cares?

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The players get some of the blame.

Well of course. You are right. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, spiritof66 said:

Do you see a way for the Orioles, Rays, Padres, Rockies D-Backs, Pirates, Reds or Brewers to be competitive within your definition -- without changing the structure of MLB?

The current system works great for the players and for the higherst-revenue teams. MLB is likely to have a close pennant race or races, or at least wildcard race or races, every year. And it has two divisions, the NL East and the AL Central, in which multiple teams have have pretty comparable revenues (unless and until the White Sox get off their asses). If a third of the teams have to approach things a little differently because they're at a large competitive disadvantage, who cares?

Yes, there is plenty of money in MLB for even the lower income teams to pay for a ML roster, draft picks, scouts and International talent.  The high income teams can't truly leverage the full power of their higher revenue streams.

One problem is ownership pulling money out of lower income teams then crying poor.

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

 

So what are the Nats' feeding him? In 43 innings, he has an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of .93. I know it's the National League, but still. Is it no hummus and veggies at all for Nats players, or do they just alternate it with other stuff?  

Maybe it's because they are a much better run team. 

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Do you see a way for the Orioles, Rays, Padres, Rockies D-Backs, Pirates, Reds or Brewers to be competitive within your definition -- without changing the structure of MLB?

The current system works great for the players and for the higherst-revenue teams. MLB is likely to have a close pennant race or races, or at least wildcard race or races, every year. And it has two divisions, the NL East and the AL Central, in which multiple teams have have pretty comparable revenues (unless and until the White Sox get off their asses). If a third of the teams have to approach things a little differently because they're at a large competitive disadvantage, who cares?

Considering that we could have gone to the World Series four years ago, it certainly is possible for us to be competitive.   I know, Yankees were down, Red Sox were down, whatever.   Well, those teams can be down again.   Or we can be up.

But OF COURSE we have to spend on international players.   That is capped, so the Yankees can't spend anymore than we can in that area.   So the one area where we could compete evenly with them, at least in terms of bonus money, we deliberately choose not to.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

 

So what are the Nats' feeding him? In 43 innings, he has an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of .93. I know it's the National League, but still. Is it no hummus and veggies at all for Nats players, or do they just alternate it with other stuff?  

He got pulled in the first with an apparent injury.

[SteveA]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He got pulled in the first with an apparent injury.

So the Nats pen, which went 7 (perfect) innings last night, has to go 8.2 today.   Wow

[NashLumber]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I thought it started when Jeremy Hellickson didn’t like the postgame spread following their walkoff win against the Yankees on Sept. 5.    He said he was sick of having spicy hummus with the veggie tray every damned night, and that just killed the morale of the team and the rest is history.  

Good one. And of course, I blame Brady, their board certified nutritionist. (:TongueInCheek:)

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes, there is plenty of money in MLB for even the lower income teams to pay for a ML roster, draft picks, scouts and International talent.  The high income teams can't truly leverage the full power of their higher revenue streams.

One problem is ownership pulling money out of lower income teams then crying poor.

I agree with spirit of 66 about the ability of low income teams to compete.  If they draft well and make some judicious pickups of undervalued players/ not sign declining players to big contracts they can compete for no more than a three year span, whereas well run large market teams will always be able to compete year in and year out.

However, your last line is in my opinion possibly the biggest problem in baseball.  Small market owners have notnn with small exceptions, put the money in to go for it when it matters.  I think in part because the current system punishes them so heavily when that does not work out, but also in part because they are just greedy.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I agree with spirit of 66 about the ability of low income teams to compete.  If they draft well and make some judicious pickups of undervalued players/ not sign declining players to big contracts they can compete for no more than a three year span, whereas well run large market teams will always be able to compete year in and year out.

However, your last line is in my opinion possibly the biggest problem in baseball.  Small market owners have notnn with small exceptions, put the money in to go for it when it matters.  I think in part because the current system punishes them so heavily when that does not work out, but also in part because they are just greedy.

If I had a billion dollar asset I would expect a ROI beyond the profit I would realize when I sold the team.

 

[Aristotelian]

Has anyone mentioned Ubaldo in the wild card game?