2018 Orioles Top Prospect List

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think our deepest list preceded the 2009 season.   I don’t recall the whole list, but the top 4 were Wieters, Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta.    Britton I think was somewhere in the top 10.   Down in the teens or low 20’s were guys like Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken.     Reimold was somewhere.   I’d love to dig that list up if Tony has it stored away somewhere.  

My computer died that had all my old lists, but I have them backed up on some external harddrive but don't really have the time to go an find them. I did find this though:

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2009/12/composite-orioles-top-10.html

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

My computer died that had all my old lists, but I have them backed up on some external harddrive but don't really have the time to go an find them. I did find this though:

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2009/12/composite-orioles-top-10.html

Yeah, that was a year later and the talent a lot thinner after numerous 2009 graduations.

[weams]

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

 

Imagine having 10 top 100 prospects, and a pretty good major league team, like Atlanta.    

[VaBird1]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Imagine having 10 top 100 prospects, and a pretty good major league team, like Atlanta.    

And they are defending division champs!  

[LookinUp]

Random thought:

I was just looking at the number ratings in the OP of this thread. Man, an evaluator would really have to have some cajones to grade someone as a 75 or 80. I suppose certain tools, like speed, could be graded there, but I can't even imagine a prospect being graded that highly. Not Harper. Not Machado. Trout maybe? 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Random thought:

I was just looking at the number ratings in the OP of this thread. Man, an evaluator would really have to have some cajones to grade someone as a 75 or 80. I suppose certain tools, like speed, could be graded there, but I can't even imagine a prospect being graded that highly. Not Harper. Not Machado. Trout maybe? 

According to this from May 2012, BA had Harper at 80 and Trout at 75.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/mlbreports.com/2012/05/03/trout-harper/amp/

I think grades above 70 are exceedingly rare for a prospect, though.   

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

According to this from May 2012, BA had Harper at 80 and Trout at 75.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/mlbreports.com/2012/05/03/trout-harper/amp/

I think grades above 70 are exceedingly rare for a prospect, though.   

Baseball America's grades are generally higher than other publications because they don't bake risk into the equation. They often rank lower grades above higher grades that have more risk. 

 

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Random thought:

I was just looking at the number ratings in the OP of this thread. Man, an evaluator would really have to have some cajones to grade someone as a 75 or 80. I suppose certain tools, like speed, could be graded there, but I can't even imagine a prospect being graded that highly. Not Harper. Not Machado. Trout maybe? 

The issue is that an 80 means that the median outcome for a player is a top 5 player in baseball. I'm not sure if you can reasonably say that's the median outcome for anyone. There are a few prospects who have a reasonable 80 ceiling, Vlad Jr, Forrest Whitley, and Royce Lewis come to mind. 

[LookinUp]

It's anyone's guess what this list might look like at the end of this year, but it sure would be nice if we could add a new #1 (Rutschman), another top 10 guy from the draft and a third top 10 guy from the international market. I don't know if that's at all likely (probably not, particularly internationally), but that sure would be a nice piggy back on top of what has already been a good year for many of our prospects.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's anyone's guess what this list might look like at the end of this year, but it sure would be nice if we could add a new #1 (Rutschman), another top 10 guy from the draft and a third top 10 guy from the international market. I don't know if that's at all likely (probably not, particularly internationally), but that sure would be a nice piggy back on top of what has already been a good year for many of our prospects.

I'm thinking the 2018 list isn't going to change. 

[Frobby]

On 11/5/2018 at 11:57 AM, Tony-OH said:

Rank	Name	Current Grade	Future Grade	Ceiling Grade
1	DL Hall – LHP	25	60	65
2	Grayson Rodriguez – RHP	20	60	60
3	Ryan Mountcastle – 3B	40	55	60
4	Dean Kremer- RHP	45	55	60
5	Yusniel Diaz – OF	40	55	60
6	Austin Hays – OF	40	50	55
7	Hunter Harvey – RHP	35	50	60
8	Zac Lowther – LHP	35	50	55
9	Blaine Knight – RHP	25	50	55
10	Brenan Hanifee – RHP	25	50	55
11	Keegan Akin – LHP	40	50	50
12	Luis Ortiz – RHP	40	45	50
13	Ryan McKenna – OF	35	45	50
14	Branden Kline – RHP	40	45	55
15	Drew Rom – LHP	20	45	55
16	Zach Pop	40	45	50
17	Dillon Tate	40	45	50
18	Rylan Bannon	35	45	50
19	Adam Hall	20	45	50
20	Michael Baumann	25	45	50
21	Alex Wells	25	45	50
22	Jean Carlos Encarnacion	20	45	55
23	Cadyn Grenier	20	45	50
24	DJ Stewart	45	45	45
25	Jean Carmona	20	45	50
26	Cody Carroll	40	40	45
27	Brett Cumberland	30	40	45
28	John Means	40	40	45
29	Cameron Bishop	20	40	45
30	Matthias Dietz	20	40	50

To me the big upward movers in the first half were Rom (15), Wells (21) and Stewart (24), all of whom had great first halves.   Probably Baumann (20) too, not purely on numbers but also reports on uptick in his stuff. Then there’s Means (28), who moved himself right off the list by sticking in the majors all season so far and doing extremely well!

A number of guys have been minor or major disappointments, too, but I won’t dwell on them.    

[LookinUp]

I think the biggest mover (up) is Baumann unless they decide Rom moves above Lowther, which I doubt. I'm guessing Rom will be rated higher than Baumann, but am not sure and, if so, don't think it'll be more than a few spots unless they really love Rom. 

Just reading the posts here, I think Luke really loves Baumann and Rom. Encouraging for both, for sure.

[ChuckS]

Ortiz, Tate, and Kline (if eligible) are big fallers for me. Also JC Encarnacion, who is probably outside of the top 30 at this point.   Doesn't bode well for our return on the trades from last July.  McKenna's stock has to be down as well, but I thought he was ranked a bit lower than he should have been to start the season.  I'd still put him in the top 20.  

I'd add Adam Hall to the list of guys who should get a nice bump up the list. 

[sportsfan8703]

Post draft, the top 30 is going to pretty solid when compared to other organizations, but where I think are system is viewed as below average is in that top 31-75 range. Not saying that there are systems out there with 75-100 “prospects” but they got “guys”.

Having the #1 pick and the top bonus pool, should really help out our top 40. However, as much ground on the other MLB orgs as we just gained, we’re probably going to lose just as much when the international signings are announced. 

I don’t know what the trade outlook is going to look for us, but that could be another potential way to add to the top 75. 

Until the draft next year, we have a few ways to add talent. Intl signings. Trades. Waiver wire. Rule 5 MLB and MILB portions. 

[Frobby]

On 11/5/2018 at 11:57 AM, Tony-OH said:

Rank	Name	Current Grade	Future Grade	Ceiling Grade
1	DL Hall – LHP	25	60	65
2	Grayson Rodriguez – RHP	20	60	60
3	Ryan Mountcastle – 3B	40	55	60
4	Dean Kremer- RHP	45	55	60
5	Yusniel Diaz – OF	40	55	60
6	Austin Hays – OF	40	50	55
7	Hunter Harvey – RHP	35	50	60
8	Zac Lowther – LHP	35	50	55
9	Blaine Knight – RHP	25	50	55
10	Brenan Hanifee – RHP	25	50	55
11	Keegan Akin – LHP	40	50	50
12	Luis Ortiz – RHP	40	45	50
13	Ryan McKenna – OF	35	45	50
14	Branden Kline – RHP	40	45	55
15	Drew Rom – LHP	20	45	55
16	Zach Pop	40	45	50
17	Dillon Tate	40	45	50
18	Rylan Bannon	35	45	50
19	Adam Hall	20	45	50
20	Michael Baumann	25	45	50
21	Alex Wells	25	45	50
22	Jean Carlos Encarnacion	20	45	55
23	Cadyn Grenier	20	45	50
24	DJ Stewart	45	45	45
25	Jean Carmona	20	45	50
26	Cody Carroll	40	40	45
27	Brett Cumberland	30	40	45
28	John Means	40	40	45
29	Cameron Bishop	20	40	45
30	Matthias Dietz	20	40	50

2017 Top Prospect List

Can’t wait for the 2019 list to come out!     I’m guessing, based on last year, that we have to wait until November.     

I think you can argue that the top 8 pretty much held serve.    I assume Baumann will show up in that group, and obviously Rutschman at no. 1.    That should be your top 10 IMO.

I think only Kline, Stewart and Means (ranked 28!) have graduated, and there’s a lot of new players deserving of consideration, so I expect a lot of movement below the top 10.