How long does your blank check for Elias last?

[tntoriole]

I would pay him outside the box of other GMs and would give him as much autonomy as he wants. 

[foxfield]

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I can see why people would say a WS win would solidify him as an elite GM but as pointed out the playoffs are a crap shoot. Elias isn’t at fault if the pitching craps the bed or if the bats go cold. 
 

He already is elite. He’s stocked this franchise with more good young talent than we could have hoped. As long as the Orioles keep making the playoffs and as long as he keeps good talent coming through the system that’s what he’ll be judged on. In addition to being at the vanguard of how to pick up guys like O’Hearn, etc., that’s important too. 

I agree, I am merely pointing out that without some post season success, he will not compare as favorably to the absolute top of the Orioles best GMs.   Sorta like Gunnar’s season shows he is an elite player this season, but you’re still not comparing his season to Ohtani’s. 
 

Nevertheless, he is unquestionably the best in the Angelo’s era  and I see no reason he can’t ascend to the mountain top if he stays 3-5 more years  

 

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, waroriole said:

You think Elias just wants to be the second lowest payroll in baseball? 

If Elias is already on a profit sharing plan then maybe he does want to keep a low payroll.

Edited October 1, 2023 by wildcard

[waroriole]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Elias is already on a profit sharing plan then maybe he does want to keep a low payroll.

Is that the assumption we’re operating with now? Why would you think that?

[tntoriole]

17 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Is that the assumption we’re operating with now? Why would you think that?

If Houston has any correlation, they were dead last in MLB payroll when tanking for 3 years under Lehnow, Elias was there. 
 

In 2016 they had a year like we had in 2022 and in that offseason their payroll moved from 30th to 18th mainly due to arb costs. 
 

In 2017 (hopefully like us) they had the first of three straight 100 plus seasons .. so what did that do to their budget?  They went from 18th to 11th to 8th to 4th by the peak of that first wave. 
 

No doubt Elias went all through this in detail with John before he was even hired and has gone over it through the rebuild years hopefully already achieved a general understanding about the coming wave seasons and budget necessities 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

If Elias is already on a profit sharing plan then maybe he does want to keep a low payroll.

Don't forget the year-end bonus, no doubt partially based on overall profitability. 

This is meant as a joke, but sports fans assume that the W-L record is the only thing motivating a team's FO and they shouldn't.   In many important respects a sports team is a business just like any other.

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Is that the assumption we’re operating with now? Why would you think that?

Not any assumption.  More a guess.    I think Elias is pretty smart.  In 2018 he was hired by promoting the plan to cut veteran salaries and go with a youth movement  of cheap players.   If Elias is that smart why would he not be smart enough to agree to have his compensation tied to a profit sharing plan?

[spiritof66]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

If Houston has any correlation, they were dead last in MLB payroll when tanking for 3 years under Lehnow, Elias was there. 

In 2016 they had a year like we had in 2022 and in that offseason their payroll moved from 30th to 18th mainly due to arb costs. 

In 2017 (hopefully like us) they had the first of three straight 100 plus seasons .. so what did that do to their budget?  They went from 18th to 11th to 8th to 4th by the peak of that first wave. 
 

No doubt Elias went all through this in detail with John before he was even hired and has gone over it through the rebuild years hopefully already achieved a general understanding about the coming wave seasons and budget necessities 

I have no reason to think Elias and John Angelos reviewed in detail, or have have any clear, common understanding about, future budgets, player payroll or retention of homegrown talent, other than maybe the mutual recognition that at some point payroll will have to increase. Nor do I have any reason to believe they have any mutual understanding about those things. Even if they do, to borrow an old phrase, I don't think a general understanding with John Angelos is worth the paper it's not written on.

[tntoriole]

6 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I have no reason to think Elias and John Angelos reviewed in detail, or have have any clear, common understanding about, future budgets, player payroll or retention of homegrown talent, other than maybe the mutual recognition that at some point payroll will have to increase. Nor do I have any reason to believe they have any mutual understanding about those things. Even if they do, to borrow an old phrase, I don't think a general understanding with John Angelos is worth the paper it's not written on.

You would have a difficult time being the Orioles GM.  In fact, you couldn’t be with that belief.

I believe Elias has very different thoughts than you do about JA and acts in a way consistent with what appears to date to be a very mutually agreed upon path working for him. 

In other words, Elias operates in the real world, not a fantasy one. 
 

Edited October 1, 2023 by tntoriole

[tntoriole]

11 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I have no reason to think Elias and John Angelos reviewed in detail, or have have any clear, common understanding about, future budgets, player payroll or retention of homegrown talent, other than maybe the mutual recognition that at some point payroll will have to increase. Nor do I have any reason to believe they have any mutual understanding about those things. Even if they do, to borrow an old phrase, I don't think a general understanding with John Angelos is worth the paper it's not written on.

So you think Elias when interviewed by JA just said “Oh trust me, we will figure it out?”
 

Or perhaps he was thoroughly prepared, presented his experience in detail and outlined his thoughts and plans and process to rebuild and beyond ? 

[Just Regular]

Today BAL is 24th of the 30 Clubs in Wins since play began in 2019.     It'll be interesting to see how far these Adley teams can climb the AL ladder the next four or more years.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2019&season=2023&sortcol=2&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

2019-present, we are already ahead of DET-KCR.

Teams to leap frog next year:

-trail TEX by 3 games, trail LAA by 5 games, trail OAK by 14 games, trail CHW by 27 games

Teams to leap frog by end of 2025

-trail BOS by 40 games

Those projected achievements would get Elias' Club to 8th of the 15 AL Clubs for 2019-2025.     How deep he took the dive helped how high it can fly.   

Elias and Adley in time, if we are lucky, becomes a Belichick and Brady kind of thing.     If the Start Time is instead Adley's MLB debut, as managed by Elias, its already ATL-LAD-HOU-BAL.

[spiritof66]

4 hours ago, tntoriole said:

So you think Elias when interviewed by JA just said “Oh trust me, we will figure it out?”
 

Or perhaps he was thoroughly prepared, presented his experience in detail and outlined his thoughts and plans and process to rebuild and beyond ? 

Not at all. I obviously don't know what happened, but my guess is that Elias explained what the Astros had done and said he could build the Orioles through a similar strategy. I have no doubt he was very well prepared and ready to go through his plan in meticculous detail, with salary estimates (this was in the waning years of the old CBA), recommendations for building out the analytics and international infrastructures. But I wouldn't venture a guess as to how much of that he presented to Angelos, or how much of that Angelos would have understood. My point was that I question whether there was any commitment or agreement reached about what will happen with the payroll when it's no longer a team dominated by pre-arbitration guys, or about adding payroll by signing or trading for veteran players, and even if there was I would not count on Angelos to live up to it. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope so.

[tntoriole]

3 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Not at all. I obviously don't know what happened, but my guess is that Elias explained what the Astros had done and said he could build the Orioles through a similar strategy. I have no doubt he was very well prepared and ready to go through his plan in meticculous detail, with salary estimates (this was in the waning years of the old CBA), recommendations for building out the analytics and international infrastructures. But I wouldn't venture a guess as to how much of that he presented to Angelos, or how much of that Angelos would have understood. My point was that I question whether there was any commitment or agreement reached about what will happen with the payroll when it's no longer a team dominated by pre-arbitration guys, or about adding payroll by signing or trading for veteran players, and even if there was I would not count on Angelos to live up to it. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope so.

The only public evidence I see is that John Angelos has given Elias and his team virtually complete autonomy in the rebuilding and hiring and decisions since he came on board. 
 

Don’t get me wrong.. JA has significant personality flaws evident in his public statements, lease negotiations, KB situation, media relations etc … however, if a new owner like a Bisciotti type had come in here in 2018 and hired Elias, then this board right now would be singing the new owner’s praises as the best owner ever. 
 

We have had the painful experience of living with the old man for decades and all that stuff colors our perception of JA.  But Elias came with no such baggage at all and perhaps John also would like to be a bit different than the old man. 
 

Either way, it seems to date to me anyway that Elias was a great choice by JA and he has given him almost total autonomy in the rebuilding.  And the son gets credit from me for that.  
 

Can this sour? Oh sure!! Will it be about money? Probably.