If Mussina wins 20, is he a shoe-in for the Hall?

[TakebackOPACY]

You know that Mike Mussina has won almost exactly the same percentage of his starts that Jim Palmer did? And that if Palmer had pitched in a five-man rotation, costing him 4-8 starts a year, he may not have ever won 20 games in a season?

Is Jim Palmer Mr. Almost, too? Should he have his plaque removed from Cooperstown?

For what it's worth, speaking OldFan's language, Mussina's .645 winning percentage as an Oriole makes him the All-time leader in Oriole history, just ahead of Palmer's .638% (min 500 innings pitched).

He lead the league in wins in 1995 (19).

He lead the league in winning percentage in 1992 (.783%, 18-5).

He lead the league in walk rate in 1995 and is leading the league currently as he has reinvented his game in 2008.

He lead the league in innings pitched in 2000.

He lead the league in shutouts in 1995.

He outdueled Josh Beckett in a classic World Series pitchers duel, and he would've started Game 7 if Pettitte hadn't been outdueled in Game 6.

His duel with Orel Hershiser in Game 3 of the '97 ALCS was unbelievable... but you're right; I blame Mussina for the 12 inning 2-1 loss. He should've gotten it done!

In game 6 of that ALCS, with the series on the line, Mussina stepped up and allowed 1 hit over 8 scoreless innings. He walked 2 and struck out 10. But the O's didn't score a single run for him. O's lost 1-0 in the 11th inning.

In the decisive Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, the one where Little let Pedro stay in the game and the Yankees beat the Sox, Clemens got shelled in the 2nd and then gave up a lead-off HR to Millar in the 4th. Mussina then came into Game 7 on two days rest and pitched three scoreless innings in relief.

EDIT: He also outpitched Schilling in Game 1 of the 2004 ALCS. After six scoreless innings, Mussina got hit hard in the seventh, but the Yanks were already up 8-0 by then. He also outpitched Pedro Martinez in that series, but his bullpen blew the lead he gave them.

[Old#5fan]

You know that Mike Mussina has won almost exactly the same percentage of his starts that Jim Palmer did? And that if Palmer had pitched in a five-man rotation, costing him 4-8 starts a year, he may not have ever won 20 games in a season?

Is Jim Palmer Mr. Almost, too? Should he have his plaque removed from Cooperstown?

Please don't go there. Jim Palmer didn't "almost" win a Cy Young, he didn't "almost" win twenty games multiple times, he didn't "almost" win WS and playoff games helping his team to multiple World Championships. He didn't "almost" make the All-star team a number of times including "almost' being named the starter, he didn't "almost' throw a no-hitter. He didn't almost throw all those complete games and shutouts, that are Oriole records.

He DID all those things. The HOF is about accomplishments, not about almost achieving accomplishments. As the end result, Jim Palmer didn't "almost" make the HOF, nor was there ever any debate as to whether he would get in or not.

Conclusion: if there was an "Almost" Hall of Fame. Mike Mussina would be the charter member bar none!

[DrungoHazewood]

Oh boy Drungo. This is one guy you don't wanna start an argument with.

I'm a glutton for punishment. I know.

[DrungoHazewood]

Please don't go there. Jim Palmer didn't "almost" win a Cy Young, he didn't "almost" win twenty games multiple times, he didn't "almost" win WS and playoff games helping his team to multiple World Championships. He didn't "almost" make the All-star team a number of times including "almost' being named the starter, he didn't "almost' throw a no-hitter. He didn't almost throw all those complete games and shutouts, that are Oriole records.

He DID all those things. The HOF is about accomplishments, not about almost achieving accomplishments. As the end result, Jim Palmer didn't "almost" make the HOF, nor was there ever any debate as to whether he would get in or not.

Conclusion: if there was an "Almost" Hall of Fame. Mike Mussina would be the charter member bar none!

You almost understand some of the concepts necessary to evaluate the differences between Mike Mussina and Jim Palmer and the contexts of each of their careers. Almost.

[McLovin]

Please don't go there. Jim Palmer didn't "almost" win a Cy Young, he didn't "almost" win twenty games multiple times, he didn't "almost" win WS and playoff games helping his team to multiple World Championships. He didn't "almost" make the All-star team a number of times including "almost' being named the starter, he didn't "almost' throw a no-hitter. He didn't almost throw all those complete games and shutouts, that are Oriole records.

I agree with all of this. Mussina couldn't hold Palmer's jock. Palmer was an elite pitcher - an all time great. Say what you will about different era's, but you also have to account for the fact that the league was smaller - which deepens the talent pool (there were less fringe players in the game).

From 1973-1977, Palmer won three Cy Young awards and finished second once (the 1974 season was interrupted by injury). He received MVP votes 8 times. He was 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA in the postseason. He won 20 games 8 times in 9 years (again missing out in 1974). Sure, he had more starts to do it, but no one else was winning so many games so often.

Having said all of that, in my eyes, Mussina is a probable Hall of Famer. However, the only thing he has in common with Jim Palmer is that they both played in Baltimore in their primes.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I think if Mussina's career ended today, he'd be in a similar situation HOF-wise as Billy Williams was.

Williams was a very good, very consistent player for a long time. But, although he was usually one of the better players in the league, he was never the best. And his career totals (2,711 / 426 / 1,475) fell just short of automatic HOF qualifiers. But he eventually got into the Hall, 11 years after he retired.

Williams did have one season where he hit 40 HR, which would be comparable to Musinna winning 20. And he had the consecutive games streak and the 1961 ROY award. On the other hand, he never had a postseason hit, while Mussina's had some great moments.

I think all Mussina needs to do is stay 100 games over .500, and he'll eventually get in. And if he's able to get to 300 wins, then he goes from being Billy Williams to being Eddie Murray, and he's in easily.

[ElToro75]

Please don't go there. Jim Palmer didn't "almost" win a Cy Young, he didn't "almost" win twenty games multiple times, he didn't "almost" win WS and playoff games helping his team to multiple World Championships. He didn't "almost" make the All-star team a number of times including "almost' being named the starter, he didn't "almost' throw a no-hitter. He didn't almost throw all those complete games and shutouts, that are Oriole records.

He DID all those things. The HOF is about accomplishments, not about almost achieving accomplishments. As the end result, Jim Palmer didn't "almost" make the HOF, nor was there ever any debate as to whether he would get in or not.

Conclusion: if there was an "Almost" Hall of Fame. Mike Mussina would be the charter member bar none!

So would you consider ranking in the top 40 (or higher) in various pitching categories an accomplishment?

From my previous post:

Well speaking of winning percentages, all time Mussina currently ranks 40th in Win %, 39th in wins (assuming he gets 6 more this season to finish with 19 wins for '08, that puts him at 34th, assuming he gets 30 more between now and when he retires that ranks him at 24th all time)

He also ranks 22nd in K/9, 21st in strike outs (and he stands a decent chance to get 3,000 - one of your famous milestones required)

Remember, getting into the Hall isn't about one 20 win season here, or 1 Cy Young there. It's about being among the best of the best of the era you play in. No he's not the best pitcher of his era, I don't think anyone here is saying he is, but he is among the best of his era.

[Old#5fan]

I think if Mussina's career ended today, he'd be in a similar situation HOF-wise as Billy Williams was.

Williams was a very good, very consistent player for a long time. But, although he was usually one of the better players in the league, he was never the best. And his career totals (2,711 / 426 / 1,475) fell just short of automatic HOF qualifiers. But he eventually got into the Hall, 11 years after he retired.

Williams did have one season where he hit 40 HR, which would be comparable to Musinna winning 20. And he had the consecutive games streak and the 1961 ROY award. On the other hand, he never had a postseason hit, while Mussina's had some great moments.

I think all Mussina needs to do is stay 100 games over .500, and he'll eventually get in. And if he's able to get to 300 wins, then he goes from being Billy Williams to being Eddie Murray, and he's in easily.

I sort of agree with you on this. The only, and I repeat ONLY way Mussina gets into the HOF is by achieving the 300 win total and that is mainly due to his longevity and great fortune not to have spent a lot of time on the DL during his career overall along with the fact he pitched most of his career for winning teams. In this manner, and only in this manner does a very good player attain the Hall because he had the great fortune to be able to sustain his very good career over an above average span of time. However, when you analyze this type of career, then why hasn't Dennis Martinez and Bert Blyleven made it? It seems like both of them have suffered unfairly due to not having played on winning teams througout the majority of their career like Mussina has. Hence they didn't have as many opportunies to pick up a win as they lacked the team around them to do it!

[Nigel Tufnel]

Blyleven never won the Cy Young, and won 20 games exactly once, in a year where he had 40 starts and lost 17 games. His career record is 287-250. Mussina's is 263-151.

If Mussina pitched for 5 more years and put up a 24-99 record, would that somehow enhance his HOF candidacy?

[Old#5fan]

Blyleven never won the Cy Young, and won 20 games exactly once, in a year where he had 40 starts and lost 17 games. His career record is 287-250. Mussina's is 263-151.

If Mussina pitched for 5 more years and put up a 24-99 record, would that somehow enhance his HOF candidacy?

How many winning teams did Blyleven pitch for as opposed to Mussina? You seem to be taking that important aspect out of consideration entirely. I think Blyleven had a better curve ball than Mussina's. In fact, I know he did. I have heard players who faced him state he may have had the best curveball ever thrown by anyone.

[Nigel Tufnel]

So now it's a great curveball that gets you in? When do Gregg Olson and Tippy Martinez get inducted?

Certainly Mussina's teams were better. But did you ever consider that could be because they had Mike Mussina pitching for them?

[Old#5fan]

So now it's a great curveball that gets you in? When do Gregg Olson and Tippy Martinez get inducted?

Certainly Mussina's teams were better. But did you ever consider that could be because they had Mike Mussina pitching for them?

I only used the fact Blyleven's curveball was fantastic as an example of something extraordinary that stood him apart. The last statement you made would also apply to Blyleven, Vida Blue, Dennis Martinez or any other fringe Hall of fame candidate or even those actually in the hall. So what? If you put Mussina on the Pirates his entire career do you think he has as many wins as he does now? Gimme a break. It should be taken into account when you compare Mussina to Blyleven or any other pitchers.

[square634]

How many winning teams did Blyleven pitch for as opposed to Mussina? You seem to be taking that important aspect out of consideration entirely. I think Blyleven had a better curve ball than Mussina's. In fact, I know he did. I have heard players who faced him state he may have had the best curveball ever thrown by anyone.

Isn't that a similar factor when comparing, say, Mussina to Palmer? Palmer had some all-time great defenses behind him. I don't think the Yankees have been very good defensively since Mussina has been there.

[Nigel Tufnel]

The '92 Pirates would have been pretty solid with Mussina. Who knows - maybe they win the World Series, their free agents don't leave, and the Pirates become the team of the 90's with Mussina and Bonds leading the way. Mussina could have had 300 wins already!

[Old#5fan]

Isn't that a similar factor when comparing, say, Mussina to Palmer? Palmer had some all-time great defenses behind him. I don't think the Yankees have been very good defensively since Mussina has been there.

Sure it is but Mussina is never going to compare well to Palmer. Not many pitchers do other than those well entrenched in the HOF beyond any doubt. I picked Blyleven to compare to Mussina because he can't seem to get in the HOF, nor has Dennis Martinez. However, had they both played on better or more teams win winning records during their career (like Mussina) maybe they would have topped 300 wins easily. I just don't think 300 wins by itself is hall worthy without some of the other common HOF denominator hallmarks that Mussina doesn't possess, yet Martinez and Blyleven do, like a perfect game (Martinez) and a 20 win season (Blyleven).