Rule 5: Brandon Bailey - RHP -Astros

[Luke-OH]

7 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

Koji Uehara's fastball had a really high spin rate, if you remember that. Radar gun would say 89 but hitters reacted like it was 99.

Yep, so in 2016 Uehara averaged 87.3mph on his fastball but had a 2409rpm average spin rate.

The higher the velocity, the higher the average spin rate, so that's why the term Bauer Unit is used, it relates spin rate to velocity. 

So Uehara had 27.6 Bauer Units on his fastball, which would be 15th out of 598 MLB pitchers in 2019. 

Bailey's is even higher than that. 

[Luke-OH]

Also, while we don't have spin rate data from before 2015, based on Uehara's fastball movement from Brooks Baseball, his spin rate was even higher in his prime because he got an extra inch of vertical rise (not considering gravity) back in 2010. 

[jerios55]

13 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

https://theathletic.com/990262/2019/05/30/inside-the-astros-cutting-edge-approach-to-minor-league-pitching-development/

 

Maybe it's cause I'm on my phone but I can't seem to get rid of the full everything here. 

The Holt mentioned in this article is the same Holt that is now our system wide pitching development coach, correct?

If so, it's nice that despite the AA to MLBj jump, he should have a comfortable transition with expected routine.  

[ScGO's]

I think Bailey should be given a shot at a rotation spot, but Rucker's funky arm action makes me think he will do better in the BP.  I like both picks.

[7Mo]

14 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Maybe it's cause I'm on my phone but I can't seem to get rid of the full everything here. 

The Holt mentioned in this article is the same Holt that is now our system wide pitching development coach, correct?

If so, it's nice that despite the AA to MLBj jump, he should have a comfortable transition with expected routine.  

Yes, the same Chris Holt. 

Here's a blurb:

But upon reporting in February 2018 to the Astros’ complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Bailey was given a completely revamped plan of attack. His introduction to the Astros’ holistic approach came on Day 1 in a meeting with their two minor-league pitching coordinators at the time, Josh Miller and Chris Holt. Bailey learned he had a lot to refine.

Miller and Holt emphasized to Bailey that his four-seam fastball has an elite spin rate — the quality that creates the illusion to a hitter that the pitch is rising. His curveball, however, needed work so he could throw it out of the same tunnel as his fastball, a staple of Houston’s pitching philosophy. Bailey had developed his curveball the previous season with a grip that was essentially self-taught. He left his first day as an Astro with a new spike-curve grip and instructions on how to use all four laces to his advantage to create more depth.

Bailey’s experience is symbolic of the Astros’ cutting-edge processes in player development dating to about 2015.

“The coaches have done a really good job of identifying how to work with each individual athlete,” said Jeff Luhnow, who’s in his eighth season as the Astros’ general manager. “We’ve always said that there’s no one-size-fits-all approach to player development. It’s especially so in today’s world because you really can customize a player development plan for each athlete, and that’s what we do and that’s what we’ve been doing for the past three or four years. And I think our (coaches) have enough experience doing it now and our players trust our coaches and are willing to go ahead and take the plunge and try something new.”

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yep, so in 2016 Uehara averaged 87.3mph on his fastball but had a 2409rpm average spin rate.

The higher the velocity, the higher the average spin rate, so that's why the term Bauer Unit is used, it relates spin rate to velocity. 

So Uehara had 27.6 Bauer Units on his fastball, which would be 15th out of 598 MLB pitchers in 2019. 

Bailey's is even higher than that. 

While I understand spin rate is important, it still seems to me I’d prefer a 95 mph fastball with a 2400 mph spin rate to an 88 mph fastball with the same spin rate, even though the Bauer Units would be higher on the slower pitch.    

[Frobby]

Nothing in this Fangraphs report that Luke didn’t say already, but here it is anyway: 

“Brandon Bailey, RHP (from HOU)
Another spin rate monster, Bailey is a short righty with a deep repertoire very likely to stick on the Orioles’ 25-man next year. Like most pitchers who’ve been touched by Astros player development, Bailey’s fastball plays at the top of the strike zone, and it helps set up an above-average, 12-to-6 curveball. His changeup will flash plus and he can vary his breaking ball shape to look like a slider or cutter to give hitters different looks. All of these components allow Bailey to strike out lots of batters without big velocity (91-94, touch 96), but his approach to pitching is not conducive to efficient strike-throwing, so he’s likely a multi-inning relief piece or swing man who works about 100 innings during the course of a season.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/

[bobmc]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nothing in this Fangraphs report that Luke didn’t say already, but here it is anyway: 

“Brandon Bailey, RHP (from HOU)
Another spin rate monster, Bailey is a short righty with a deep repertoire very likely to stick on the Orioles’ 25-man next year. Like most pitchers who’ve been touched by Astros player development, Bailey’s fastball plays at the top of the strike zone, and it helps set up an above-average, 12-to-6 curveball. His changeup will flash plus and he can vary his breaking ball shape to look like a slider or cutter to give hitters different looks. All of these components allow Bailey to strike out lots of batters without big velocity (91-94, touch 96), but his approach to pitching is not conducive to efficient strike-throwing, so he’s likely a multi-inning relief piece or swing man who works about 100 innings during the course of a season.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/

I wonder if hitting coaches can tailor the approach batters take when facing such a pitcher?  Or are these "big galoots" unable to change?    I would imagine that corrections can be made to counter the lack of movement in this case.

The second point made is that BB cannot go more than a couple of innings due to command issues.  Can @Luke-OH explain this?  Does that mean that batters get used to the spin rate and take pitches that now fall out of the strike zone?

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, bobmc said:

I wonder if hitting coaches can tailor the approach batters take when facing such a pitcher?  Or are these "big galoots" unable to change?    I would imagine that corrections can be made to counter the lack of movement in this case.

The second point made is that BB cannot go moire than a couple of innings due to command issues.  Can @Luke-OH explain this?  Does that mean that batters get used to the spin rate and take pitches that now fall out of the strike zone?

For the first question, the swing and reaction to a pitch is such a ingrained action that if you are used to a fastball that moves a certain way most of the time and then someone comes in and it moves in a vastly different manner, that's tough. The main thing hitters do against high spin fastball types is to strategically lay off pitches that are towards the top of the zone. 

For the second question, it's a combination of a fairly aggressive delivery (not super high effort, but not a free and easy thing), an attempt to really hone in on certain release points to achieve the desired movement profiles (spin axis), and his offspeed heavy mix of pitches. 

[Luke-OH]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nothing in this Fangraphs report that Luke didn’t say already, but here it is anyway: 

“Brandon Bailey, RHP (from HOU)
Another spin rate monster, Bailey is a short righty with a deep repertoire very likely to stick on the Orioles’ 25-man next year. Like most pitchers who’ve been touched by Astros player development, Bailey’s fastball plays at the top of the strike zone, and it helps set up an above-average, 12-to-6 curveball. His changeup will flash plus and he can vary his breaking ball shape to look like a slider or cutter to give hitters different looks. All of these components allow Bailey to strike out lots of batters without big velocity (91-94, touch 96), but his approach to pitching is not conducive to efficient strike-throwing, so he’s likely a multi-inning relief piece or swing man who works about 100 innings during the course of a season.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/

I was pretty happy that my reports (from brief video study) on the drafted players matched up pretty well with Fangraphs heavily sourced reports.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Yep, so in 2016 Uehara averaged 87.3mph on his fastball but had a 2409rpm average spin rate.

The higher the velocity, the higher the average spin rate, so that's why the term Bauer Unit is used, it relates spin rate to velocity. 

So Uehara had 27.6 Bauer Units on his fastball, which would be 15th out of 598 MLB pitchers in 2019. 

Bailey's is even higher than that. 

Man, Koji was one of the coolest and most interesting pitchers I've ever watched. It was like magic up there, it didn't make any sense. 

[jerios55]

1 hour ago, 7Mo said:

Yes, the same Chris Holt. 

Here's a blurb:

But upon reporting in February 2018 to the Astros’ complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Bailey was given a completely revamped plan of attack. His introduction to the Astros’ holistic approach came on Day 1 in a meeting with their two minor-league pitching coordinators at the time, Josh Miller and Chris Holt. Bailey learned he had a lot to refine.

Yeah, that's what I was seeing.  Thanks.

Hopefully he did the refining and can just run with it this year.  Having Holt install the same process top to bottom is great since we won't have guys making changes at every level.  The jump from AA to MLB is big, but not necessarily an uncommon practice.  Having time with Chris Holt should make it similar to a player making the jump from our AA team.  If nothing else he'll be an interesting guy to watch.

[LookinUp]

16 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Over the last two weeks Elias has added 7 arms to the system. I’d think they would all rank in the organization top 20-40.

That’s really picking up some depth and improving the depth of our farm system. 18 months from now, we should have one of the top farm systems in baseball. 

Before last season, I was hopefully predicting that the completely new pitching approach would help a few guys click that otherwise wouldn't have with the old regime. Seems to have happened with Baumann. I'm not sure the new guys can take credit for Means or not. Several of the younger guys had great years.

Adding 8 guys with decent/good upside, most of whom haven't been exposed to this approach, really does give us a chance to end up with 1 or more arms that turns into a much better version of their previous self. It's quantity + development to help our odds of developing some good ML contributors. I love the approach.

 

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Yeah, that's what I was seeing.  Thanks.

Hopefully he did the refining and can just run with it this year.  Having Holt install the same process top to bottom is great since we won't have guys making changes at every level.  The just from AA to MLB is big, but not necessarily an uncommon practice.  Having time with Chris Holt should make it similar to a player making the jump from our AA team.  If nothing else he'll be an interesting guy to watch.

He's had 2 years of that approach with the Astros so he should be a good example of what to expect going forward. 

Definitely an interesting guy to watch. Looking forward to ST to see how he does.

[LookinUp]

47 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

He's had 2 years of that approach with the Astros so he should be a good example of what to expect going forward. 

Definitely an interesting guy to watch. Looking forward to ST to see how he does.

This fact tempers my enthusiasm. Fewer obvious fixes for our guys, I'd wager. He might be what he is.

They all might, of course, but I love the idea of getting a guy with a good arm who hasn't had these approaches yet and helping him take a big step forward.