2020 MLB draft will be only 5 rounds, take place in late July

[atomic]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't understand why, in a world with capped expenditures on amateur signings, you need a draft at all.  The Yanks, Dodgers, and Sox can't offer any more money than the Orioles.  And the Orioles have a lot more job openings.  It's plausible that the Orioles would be better off in a world without a draft.

Tou don’t think the best players want to play in the best teams and in the best climate?  Plus team can do other things to get around this.  Get supporters to hire the players in the off season.   College Basketball/Football recruiting is obviously rigged do we want same thing in MLB? 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

Tou don’t think the best players want to play in the best teams and in the best climate?  Plus team can do other things to get around this.  Get supporters to hire the players in the off season.   College Basketball/Football recruiting is obviously rigged do we want same thing in MLB? 

Maybe you would rather play in Scranton but I think most people would rather play in Baltimore.

[atomic]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe you would rather play in Scranton but I think most people would rather play in Baltimore.

If you are a star player you expect to make the pros.  Obviously the Yankees have easier time signing top free agents than the Orioles.  I think you are talking about Scranton vs Norfolk. Having been to both places I don’t really have a preference.  The best players want to play for winners if the money is close.  I would rather play for the Padres than the Brewers all things being equal. 

[Dale]

According to Baseball America a few teams are holding out hope that the 2020 draft could be 10 rounds. I don't think a 40 round draft makes sense, but 5 rounds is draconian and only makes sense if your goal is to eliminate SS-A and perhaps full-season slow-A.  Teams would still have rookie ball and more time for pitching/hitting labs. 

I doubt this will lead to more HS players going to college.  Under the past guidelines, most top HS players chose the college route unless they were offered a bonus in excess of $500K.   With the new guidelines $500 K offers will become less common for HS kids but their chances of earning more by going to college will decrease by a larger amount.  Also, DI colleges only have 11+scholarships to give and often divide those among 15-20 players.  

Another stunning change to me is that no undrafted player can be offered more than a $20 K signing bonus.  In the past, many mid-level prospects signed for $100-125K.  Economically, this would lessen racial and economic diversity in the low minors. 

With respect to the missed spring season,  I'm hoping the NCAA will support nascent plans for a fall season this year that would include spring 2020 graduates.  One idea is to play 3 conference games a week (Sat DH, Sun) from late August to late October.  Of course, the hurdles to make this happen are formidable.  I am not in favor of granting an extra year to seniors next spring.  That would only hurt next year's crop of freshman.  

Gong forward, I wouldn't be surprised if MLB encourages independent leagues to play an August-October schedule to give undrafted players a second chance to get noticed and more importantly to them serve as a cheap scouting venue.  Would be impossible for these leagues to succeed economically; however, without some assistance from MLB. 

 

[weams]

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

If you are a star player you expect to make the pros.  Obviously the Yankees have easier time signing top free agents than the Orioles.  I think you are talking about Scranton vs Norfolk. Having been to both places I don’t really have a preference.  The best players want to play for winners if the money is close.  I would rather play for the Padres than the Brewers all things being equal. 

The 1966 Orioles were built completely out of pre-draft era players.  Everyone on that team was either traded there, or decided to sign with the Orioles instead of all the other teams like the Yankees and Dodgers.  Andy Etchebarren, Boog Powell, Davey Johnson, Brooks, Sam Bowens, Dave McNally, Palmer, Wally Bunker, Steve Barber, Eddie Watt... they all chose to sign with the Orioles instead of anyone else.  And this was in an era where the last Baltimore major league post season appearance was in the 1897 Temple Cup.  They weren't signing with a dynasty, or a warm-weather vacation spot, it was just another team in a rustbelt city.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Dale said:

Under the past guidelines, most top HS players chose the college route unless they were offered a bonus in excess of $500K.   

I guess that depends on what you call "top" HS players.  For example, the Orioles signed something like five high school players from round 17-on in the 2017 draft.  I guarantee you that 17th or 30th rounders weren't getting anything like $500k, end of the 10th round slot is $142k.  The O's 5th round pick was HSer Lamar Sparks, who got a $304,800 bonus and signed. 

[atomic]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The 1966 Orioles were built completely out of pre-draft era players.  Everyone on that team was either traded there, or decided to sign with the Orioles instead of all the other teams like the Yankees and Dodgers.  Andy Etchebarren, Boog Powell, Davey Johnson, Brooks, Sam Bowens, Dave McNally, Palmer, Wally Bunker, Steve Barber, Eddie Watt... they all chose to sign with the Orioles instead of anyone else.  And this was in an era where the last Baltimore major league post season appearance was in the 1897 Temple Cup.  They weren't signing with a dynasty, or a warm-weather vacation spot, it was just another team in a rustbelt city.

Remind me how many World Series did the Yankees win in the pre draft era.  How many did the the Dodgers win and how many did Browns/Orioles win?

From 1949 to 1966. There was only one World Series where both the Yankees of the Dodgers did not participate.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, atomic said:

Remind me how many World Series did the Yankees win in the pre draft era.  How many did the the Dodgers win and how many did Browns/Orioles win?

There were a lot of reasons for that, and stark and obvious differences from today.  There were no limits on bonuses for amateur players, and the Yanks led the league in attendance every year so they could pay more.  Today we have caps on amateur expenditures, so the Yanks can't spend any more than the Orioles.  In a draft-less world they could carry over the sliding/slot scale, and have the Tigers and Orioles able to spend much more than the Yanks and Dodgers.

Additionally, there were no limits in the pre-draft era to number of affiliated teams.  So in 1951 the Yanks had 15 minor league affiliates, including two AAA teams.  And no cap on how much bonus money they used to outfit those teams.  Today no one has more than eight minor league teams, and they're capped at how much they can spend.  That same year the Senators had only seven affiliates, and none in AAA.  Teams couldn't spend on MLB free agents, but they were free to have hundreds upon hundreds of players in the minors and no cap on how much to pay them.

Also, about 30-40% of the teams in pre-1960 major league baseball were run on a shoestring with very limited resources and revenues.  There were years where the Browns and Phillies and others were barely fiscally solvent, probably with revenues that didn't clear $1M.  The Browns had three years in the '30s where they drew under 100k fans paying a few dollars a ticket, in an era where ticket revenues were probably 70% of total revenues or more.  Teams like that would pretty regularly trade or sell their better players to the Yanks or Dodgers or Cards to have enough money to keep existing.

[Win Column]

I suppose it makes sense on the surface. No one will have played HS or collegiate ball, and how likely is it that there'd be a whole bunch of players that teams would want to make such an investment in? Those HS picks, particularly, would be exponentially riskier than in other years.

Besides, you can bet MLB would like to cut costs in a year where it'll possibly lose half or so of its revenue. 

Yeah, 5 rounds sounds about right. Better than none, that's for darned sure.

[bird watcher]

If the season is cancelled, do they carry over this years draft order to next year?  How long if a season is long enough to warrant changing the draft order?

[hoosiers]

Don't think this will do too much damage to the game's quality.  Most teams generate $ from their pool to sign better players by taking multiple "senior signs" who sign for $5k-$10k.  Getting five real prospects out of a five round draft (more if a team has supplemental picks) is pretty much in line with what the Os get in a regular draft.  The losers here are the fringe HS kids who would sign after round 10 for around $125k-$250k.  The lower signing bonus doesn't count against the draft pool, but kids signing at the higher amount would count about $100-$150k against the pool depending on the amount.  Teams usually are looking at two or three of such signs each year.  Some college players worth that round 11 and after $100+K would also be losers.  

I would prefer to see a 10 round draft with the signing bonuses for rounds 6-10 around $100k or so for the fringe HS prospects and decent college juniors.

The proposal really squashes the leverage of those fringe guys.

[atomic]

16 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There were a lot of reasons for that, and stark and obvious differences from today.  There were no limits on bonuses for amateur players, and the Yanks led the league in attendance every year so they could pay more.  Today we have caps on amateur expenditures, so the Yanks can't spend any more than the Orioles.  In a draft-less world they could carry over the sliding/slot scale, and have the Tigers and Orioles able to spend much more than the Yanks and Dodgers.

Additionally, there were no limits in the pre-draft era to number of affiliated teams.  So in 1951 the Yanks had 15 minor league affiliates, including two AAA teams.  And no cap on how much bonus money they used to outfit those teams.  Today no one has more than eight minor league teams, and they're capped at how much they can spend.  That same year the Senators had only seven affiliates, and none in AAA.  Teams couldn't spend on MLB free agents, but they were free to have hundreds upon hundreds of players in the minors and no cap on how much to pay them.

Also, about 30-40% of the teams in pre-1960 major league baseball were run on a shoestring with very limited resources and revenues.  There were years where the Browns and Phillies and others were barely fiscally solvent, probably with revenues that didn't clear $1M.  The Browns had three years in the '30s where they drew under 100k fans paying a few dollars a ticket, in an era where ticket revenues were probably 70% of total revenues or more.  Teams like that would pretty regularly trade or sell their better players to the Yanks or Dodgers or Cards to have enough money to keep existing.

You know the absurdity of you whole argument is that this is how the International Signings work today.  And how do the Oriole do in them? Do they get the best players each year? Or do they make excuses on why they can't get the best players? 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

You know the absurdity of you whole argument is that this is how the International Signings work today.  And how do the Oriole do in them? Do they get the best players each year? Or do they make excuses on why they can't get the best players? 

We'll see once we have a few years of a management team that is interested in being a key player in the international market.  But clearly other small-to-mid market teams do quite well with international signings.  I understand that it's difficult for some people to conceptualize realities outside of what currently exists, and for them the default position is that it will fail.

[atomic]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

We'll see once we have a few years of a management team that is interested in being a key player in the international market.  But clearly other small-to-mid market teams do quite well with international signings.

How do the Yankees and Dodgers do?