2020 Round 5 (133): Carter Baumler - RHS- (HS)(Dowling Catholic)

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Master Guns said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/5340971002

“It was definitely a tough situation, and I understand TCU is a phenomenal option, and we definitely took that into consideration, and that’s why we did turn down a number that wasn’t at the point where we wanted it to be,” Baumler said Thursday night. “So it was really tough. But I knew what I wanted, and it worked out.”

 

Sounds like a guy who is planning on signing. 

Well, yes, considering this other quote from the same article:

Baumler said he still has to take a physical and work out a few things on the negotiating table, but “the plan is to sign.”

[hoosiers]

Not Tony, but I think of our two HSers as follows:

We are giving these two kids about $1.5M-$1.75M.  That is top of the second round $ - picks 42-49.  I expect these kids have some $ inflation in their ask price relative to their draft status.  "I hear you telling me that I am rated lower, but my bonus target to take me away from college is xx."  I am going to assume the inflation factor is around 25%-50%.  That would put the real draft expected bonus at about $1.15M-$1.35M give or take.- which is a bottom of the top 50-60 rating.  This puts the kids as bottom of the second round talents.  

Obviously, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and some teams told these kids they were not rated that high and some probably agreed generally with the rating/price tag and couldn't scrape up the $.  The Os did.  From what Tony says, it sounds like our draft room maybe had a higher than second round grade on these guys and found the $ to sign them.  So, with obvious great respect to Tony, I see the Kjerstad-Martin swap as enabling us to turn our fourth and fifth round picks into second round equivalents - which I think is a very interesting draft strategy and we will have to see how it pans out.  Had they gone to college, these are two kids who likely would have been considered among the top 25 or so freshmen in the country and early favorites to be high draft picks in the 2023 draft.

I really like the write-up on Baumler.  Sounds like his frame can handle more weight/strength as he matures and that there is a very good chance he adds some velo.

[atomic]

9 hours ago, ISU94 said:

If you want to seriously think someone comparing a HS kid to a pro ball player means that they're saying they'll be that player or better in time then...

Then why the comparison.  If you are saying for example that a guy the Ravens drafted in  the fifth round was a more athletic Ray Lewis people would laugh at you.  This is a laughable comparison.  A guy who is a more athletic Greinke wouldn't last until the 5th round.  I am not sure why you can't understand this.  

[Moose Milligan]

7 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

God forbid you show any positivity towards this draft after all the whining.

Well sorry I'm not an Orioles front office bootlicker.

[MachoMachadoMan]

57 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Not Tony, but I think of our two HSers as follows:

We are giving these two kids about $1.5M-$1.75M.  That is top of the second round $ - picks 42-49.  I expect these kids have some $ inflation in their ask price relative to their draft status.  "I hear you telling me that I am rated lower, but my bonus target to take me away from college is xx."  I am going to assume the inflation factor is around 25%-50%.  That would put the real draft expected bonus at about $1.15M-$1.35M give or take.- which is a bottom of the top 50-60 rating.  This puts the kids as bottom of the second round talents.  

Obviously, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and some teams told these kids they were not rated that high and some probably agreed generally with the rating/price tag and couldn't scrape up the $.  The Os did.  From what Tony says, it sounds like our draft room maybe had a higher than second round grade on these guys and found the $ to sign them.  So, with obvious great respect to Tony, I see the Kjerstad-Martin swap as enabling us to turn our fourth and fifth round picks into second round equivalents - which I think is a very interesting draft strategy and we will have to see how it pans out.  Had they gone to college, these are two kids who likely would have been considered among the top 25 or so freshmen in the country and early favorites to be high draft picks in the 2023 draft.

I really like the write-up on Baumler.  Sounds like his frame can handle more weight/strength as he matures and that there is a very good chance he adds some velo.

I don't think we can say they would LIKELY be among the early favorites to be high picks in 2023, but that is the bet. There are plenty of HS players that opt to go to college and wish they took the money because it didn't pan out. I like the upside, though. The last two picks have made me more optimistic about the draft. I hope we get everyone signed. 

[Hazmat]

15 minutes ago, atomic said:

Then why the comparison.  If you are saying for example that a guy the Ravens drafted in  the fifth round was a more athletic Ray Lewis people would laugh at you.  This is a laughable comparison.  A guy who is a more athletic Greinke wouldn't last until the 5th round.  I am not sure why you can't understand this.  

Do pitchers need to be athletic?  Maybe other characteristics remind people of Greinke but what distinguishes Baumler as being more athletic is that he can dunk a basketball when, perhaps, Greinke never could.  I'm not seeing the issue here.

[atomic]

12 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Do pitchers need to be athletic?  Maybe other characteristics remind people of Greinke but what distinguishes Baumler as being more athletic is that he can dunk a basketball when, perhaps, Greinke never could.  I'm not seeing the issue here.

Well there is still saying he is Greinke.  Like I said Greinke was drafted 6th overall.  So if anyone including the Orioles thought he was the next Greinke he would not last to the fifth round.  It is a ridiculous comparison.  

[Moose Milligan]

32 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Do pitchers need to be athletic?  Maybe other characteristics remind people of Greinke but what distinguishes Baumler as being more athletic is that he can dunk a basketball when, perhaps, Greinke never could.  I'm not seeing the issue here.

After seeing the Orioles trot out guys like Terry Mathews, Sid Fernandez and Sidney Ponson over the years (I know I'm forgetting others)...yes, pitchers need to be athletic.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Athletic and in shape are two different things. Plenty of physical specimens aren't athletic. 

Sure, look at every offensive and defensive line in the NFL.  But you can't tell me Sidney Ponson was in good shape.

[Spl51]

He has really good command already, especially for a high school pitcher, with a ton of projection remaining. Breaking ball was pretty inconsistent, but I need more looks.

[joelala]

12 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

He has really good command already, especially for a high school pitcher, with a ton of projection remaining. Breaking ball was pretty inconsistent, but I need more looks.

Yea his delivery is a thing of beauty. And likewise with Mayo’s swing. We took two guys who already look like they have big league fundamentals. And athletically, both very much ‘look the part.’ I’m very intrigued by these two picks. 

[ISU94]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Then why the comparison.  If you are saying for example that a guy the Ravens drafted in  the fifth round was a more athletic Ray Lewis people would laugh at you.  This is a laughable comparison.  A guy who is a more athletic Greinke wouldn't last until the 5th round.  I am not sure why you can't understand this.  

Because that's how draft prospects work and people find comparing similar skillsets/frames etc. to players that have made it?

We see it all across sports. That never means when those comparisons are made they "expect" said player to turn exactly into them.

[atomic]

24 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

Because that's how draft prospects work and people find comparing similar skillsets/frames etc. to players that have made it?

We see it all across sports. That never means when those comparisons are made they "expect" said player to turn exactly into them.

Compare him to someone more realistic.  Greinke was drafted out of high school number 6 overall.  So he is surely a bad comparison. I mean I am not sure why you are arguing this point.   I have never heard a guy drafted in the fifth round compared to a Hall of Fame type player who was drafted that high out of high school.  

[ISU94]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

Compare him to someone more realistic.  Greinke was drafted out of high school number 6 overall.  So he is surely a bad comparison. I mean I am not sure why you are arguing this point.   I have never heard a guy drafted in the fifth round compared to a Hall of Fame type player who was drafted that high out of high school.  

Like I said, I think you're missing the point. He's far from the only player taken that gets comparisons to elite level players while not being a top 10 pick.

Mayo was compared to Austin Riley who is a top end prospect in baseball due to strengths/build. That's all these are. I think you're taking the word comparison to literally.

[lovetoaster]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

Compare him to someone more realistic.  Greinke was drafted out of high school number 6 overall.  So he is surely a bad comparison. I mean I am not sure why you are arguing this point.   I have never heard a guy drafted in the fifth round compared to a Hall of Fame type player who was drafted that high out of high school.  

We didn't make the comparison. One of the people on MLB Network did. I don't see why it's so wrong to compare a player to someone else. It's kind of what analysts do. It is a bit outlandish? Perhaps. But I don't know why we need to get fired up about it. 

By the way, thanks for the negative rep. I've been around here for 15 years, and I'm pretty sure I've gotten negative rep twice--and both have been from you in the last 36 hours. I'm sure I'll get a third one now. Get a grip.