Pre-draft deal Dos/don’ts

[HowAboutThat]

So how much negotiation before the draft is acceptable and within the rules? Can you go to a guy and say, “the slot for our pick is X, we’d like to choose you if you’re available and we’ll pay you X minus Y or we are prepared to pay you X plus Y but we want to make sure your sign.”

 I have no idea what is considered within the rules, But if mayo, for instance, was willing to forgo college for 1.7 mill, Wouldn’t every team who is potentially interested in him know that, because every team who is interested in him would’ve asked that question and had that negotiation with him?

[hoosiers]

Yes.  Teams know the player's number to sign.  It sounds like a couple of teams might have called later in the draft to see if he would take a lower number and he declined.

[Number5]

Other teams didn't have enough money available.

[HowAboutThat]

All right, so it seems that pre-draft negotiations are within the rules, and it’s OK to make a concrete offer to a player before you draft him.

So that implies that the Orioles said to themselves, “this is how much we need to have available for our later draft picks, so we need to find the guys who will sign for this much And choose from one of them.”

dows that sound like what happens? They went to seven or eight guys who they were considering at number two, found out which one of them would sign for their offer, and then chose their favorite among that group?

[Beef Supreme]

43 minutes ago, Philip said:

All right, so it seems that pre-draft negotiations are within the rules, and it’s OK to make a concrete offer to a player before you draft him.

So that implies that the Orioles said to themselves, “this is how much we need to have available for our later draft picks, so we need to find the guys who will sign for this much And choose from one of them.”

dows that sound like what happens? They went to seven or eight guys who they were considering at number two, found out which one of them would sign for their offer, and then chose their favorite among that group?

I do not think that anyone can assume that a) Kjerstad agreed to a signing bonus lower than Gonzalez, Veen, Meyer, Detmers, et.al. nor b) that the Orioles chose him based primarily on the number of dollars underslot it would take to sign him. Speculation like this is predicated on a notion that the team was less intent on acquiring the best of the best players for the sole reason that they wanted better than average 4th or 5th rounders. Until Elias or Sig say that they thought Kjerstad was the 10th or whatever best player in the draft, I will contend that it is valid to believe that the Orioles thought they got the best player available to them. And knowing that they could save a few bucks for other picks influenced whom they drafted with later picks. If the strategy were solely "pick Kjerstad to save pool money," then why would they pick Westburg? Or Haskins, for that matter? Why not just draft two players at underslot at #30 and #39 to pay for #103 and #133?

I think while looking to expose some hidden knowledge, we are really just guessing. 

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

I do not think that anyone can assume that a) Kjerstad agreed to a signing bonus lower than Gonzalez, Veen, Meyer, Detmers, et.al. nor b) that the Orioles chose him based primarily on the number of dollars underslot it would take to sign him. Speculation like this is predicated on a notion that the team was less intent on acquiring the best of the best players for the sole reason that they wanted better than average 4th or 5th rounders. Until Elias or Sig say that they thought Kjerstad was the 10th or whatever best player in the draft, I will contend that it is valid to believe that the Orioles thought they got the best player available to them. And knowing that they could save a few bucks for other picks influenced whom they drafted with later picks. If the strategy were solely "pick Kjerstad to save pool money," then why would they pick Westburg? Or Haskins, for that matter? Why not just draft two players at underslot at #30 and #39 to pay for #103 and #133?

I think while looking to expose some hidden knowledge, we are really just guessing. 

You will remember that Sherlock Holmes said, “when you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

However, we have very few concrete facts, and we have to evaluate them knowing that our most logical theory might be incorrect. So I’m not making any concrete accusations, I just asked if that sounded like what might have happened.

Of course nobody is going to admit that he was he was the only one who agreed to sign for the offer.

But with the under slot strategy, and the fact that they’re allowed to negotiate pre-draft, it makes sense that they went to a number of guys, found out what it would cost, made a list of the guys who they can afford, based on money they wanted to save for later choices, and chose the best of those available guys. I only asked if that Sounded like what happened.

[Beef Supreme]

18 hours ago, Philip said:

You will remember that Sherlock Holmes said, “when you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

Sorry, I don't remember him. What team did he play for?

[tntoriole]

18 hours ago, Philip said:

You will remember that Sherlock Holmes said, “when you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

However, we have very few concrete facts, and we have to evaluate them knowing that our most logical theory might be incorrect. So I’m not making any concrete accusations, I just asked if that sounded like what might have happened.

Of course nobody is going to admit that he was he was the only one who agreed to sign for the offer.

But with the under slot strategy, and the fact that they’re allowed to negotiate pre-draft, it makes sense that they went to a number of guys, found out what it would cost, made a list of the guys who they can afford, based on money they wanted to save for later choices, and chose the best of those available guys. I only asked if that Sounded like what happened.

I agree with this...I think they wanted a certain amount at the number 2 slot and they fished it out until they had a taker.  “Best lefthanded bat in the draft” or not, I think that was the play...and I don’t necessarily disagree...but I still would rather have had Martin. 

[LA2]

On 6/14/2020 at 2:54 PM, Beef Supreme said:

Sorry, I don't remember him. What team did he play for?

Which team escapes my memory at the moment, but I know he was a coach--I'm sure I've seen him at OPASY (Orioles Park at Scotland Yard).

[section18]

I'm pretty sure I read Martin wanted $8.1 even though slot was $7.8 and Kjerstad was $4.9. My backup Gonzalez was $5.4 or $500,000 more.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, section18 said:

I'm pretty sure I read Martin wanted $8.1 even though slot was $7.8 and Kjerstad was $4.9. My backup Gonzalez was $5.4 or $500,000 more.

i think he signs for no more than what the O's could have offered for slot.

[eddie83]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

i think he signs for no more than what the O's could have offered for slot.

Yep. Is he really going to go back to Vandy?

I know it’s a big difference in money buy kids like Mayo have more leverage than Martin has.  

[Number5]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

i think he signs for no more than what the O's could have offered for slot.

Well, it certainly makes sense that he will likely sign for less having been picked at 1.5 than he would have had he been taken at 1.2.  If the rumors that Boras was talking to the Orioles about 1.1 slot money, Boras may well have ended up costing Martin a lot of money, given that over-slot at 1.2 wasn't in the Orioles' game plan.  If Boras somehow manages to get the Blue jays to pay 1.1 or 1.2 money for Martin, when they have less slot money to work with, Boras' reputation as the top player agent for maximizing salary would grow even more.

[hoosiers]

18 hours ago, tntoriole said:

I agree with this...I think they wanted a certain amount at the number 2 slot and they fished it out until they had a taker.  “Best lefthanded bat in the draft” or not, I think that was the play...and I don’t necessarily disagree...but I still would rather have had Martin. 

I have posted the below in various forms the past few days, but I think it is a fairly unique confluence of events that led us to Kjerstad.  In no particular order, the following needed to happen:

 - the industry under-rates a particular player identified as worthy of the #2 overall pick by the Os.  Other players likely considered for this pick in particular Lacy and Veen, based on their projected draft slot, had no interest in cutting an underslot deal.  Kjerstad was generally expect to go 8-10 and had one rating (cbssports) of 17th overall.

 - a shortened HS and college season had various teams putting emphasis on different statistics of the prospects.  Some may have used sophomore year stats, some their entire college stats and some a balance between the sophomore and shortened junior year drafts.  Our front office clearly put a premium on shortened junior year stats of the college prospects.  To some extent, our front office corroborated the strong junior year stats with other findings/events.  In Kjerstad's case, it was likely his outperformance of Martin and Torkelson on the collegiate national team.  Kjerstad showed an improved BB rate, an improved K rate, and better power in the shortened college season.  It sounds like our front office also performed a historical analysis of college juniors who show improved plate discipline in the first 15 -17 games of the season and whether or not that improved performance was sustained throughout the remainder of the season.  It appears the answer to that analysis is that players (or at least a majority of them) with such improved performance at the beginning of a year sustain that performance over the balance of the college season. 

 - confidence that prospects our front office have deemed as worthy of overslot bonus $ will be available at the appropriate points in the draft.  I have to imagine there were literally a couple dozen scenarios for us to spend our savings at 1:2.  This confidence is less significant, I guess, if one goes by the primary premise that Kjerstad is rated alongside or very close to Martin - then it is simply a matter of spending the savings on the right prospects at the right time in the draft.  At that point, the FO had concluded that the draft haul that includes Kjerstad and some overslot signings exceeds the draft haul in scenarios where we take Martin.

It would not surprise me if the Os went to Martin/Boras and offered a below slot deal to generate some savings for a later pick and were met with a sharp rebuke requesting over-slot.  I am not sure if the Os knew the next two teams would pass on Martin or not, but Boras appears to have over-played his hand.  IMO, it is doubtful Toronto will meet the bonus request Boras made to the Orioles.  I

[HowAboutThat]

18 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

  IMO, it is doubtful Toronto will meet the bonus request Boras made to the Orioles.  I

Can you really see a 21-year-old young man turning down that much money to make a point? I agree with all of your analysis, and I think you stated it well and clearly, But he wasn’t drafted at 1.2, where his Money demand was too high, and at 1.5, the difference is even higher.

But I cannot imagine him walking away from trading lifetime security for a signature, just so he can risk repeating the process next year.