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Wade LeBlanc 2020

Il BuonO

By Il BuonO
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Very Moyeresque.    I though he had a great game.   Too bad his bequeathed runners both scored, but luckily he got enough offensive support to get credited with the W.    I’m sure he’ll take it!

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

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46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Very Moyeresque.    I though he had a great game.   Too bad his bequeathed runners both scored, but luckily he got enough offensive support to get credited with the W.    I’m sure he’ll take it!

I'm not a fan of the inherited runners going to the previous pitcher, but I can't think of a better way to do it. Maybe limit it to only runners left at 3rd base.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

I'm not a fan of the inherited runners going to the previous pitcher, but I can't think of a better way to do it. Maybe limit it to only runners left at 3rd base.

The solution is to pay more attention to other stats than ERA.   WHIP, OPSagainst, or even fun stuff like FIP variants.

But if really wanted to improve ERA, you could compute the likelihood of runs scoring and only charge the pitcher for that (i.e. let's say a runner on 3rd with one out scores 52.7% of the time, a number I just made up, but I'm sure you could find the real #.   If a pitcher leaves the game with a runner on 3rd and 1 out he is ALWAYS charged with 0.527 runs.   If the reliever lets the run score he is charged with 0.473 runs, and if he doesn't he is charged with -0.527 runs.   It will add up the same, but the responsibility for the runs will be shared.   It will be possible for really really good relievers to have a negative ERA if they come in and strand runners.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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10 minutes ago, SteveA said:

The solution is to pay more attention to other stats than ERA.   WHIP, OPSagainst, or even fun stuff like FIP variants.

But if really wanted to improve ERA, you could compute the likelihood of runs scoring and only charge the pitcher for that (i.e. let's say a runner on 3rd with one out scores 52.7% of the time, a number I just made up, but I'm sure you could find the real #.   If a pitcher leaves the game with a runner on 3rd and 1 out he is ALWAYS charged with 0.527 runs.   If the reliever lets the run score he is charged with 0.473 runs, and if he doesn't he is charged with -0.527 runs.   It will add up the same, but the responsibility for the runs will be shared.   It will be possible for really really good relievers to have a negative ERA if they come in and strand runners.

Kinda sounds like WPA.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kinda sounds like WPA.

But WPA really doesn't apply to starters, and it takes leverage into account.   We are just trying to accurately measure how LeBlanc pitched today, how much responsibility he should bear for those last two runs that scored.   We don't want a metric that would return drastically different results if the Orioles had scored 10 runs when he left in the 6th as opposed to whether they had scored 0.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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23 minutes ago, SteveA said:

The solution is to pay more attention to other stats than ERA.   WHIP, OPSagainst, or even fun stuff like FIP variants.

But if really wanted to improve ERA, you could compute the likelihood of runs scoring and only charge the pitcher for that (i.e. let's say a runner on 3rd with one out scores 52.7% of the time, a number I just made up, but I'm sure you could find the real #.   If a pitcher leaves the game with a runner on 3rd and 1 out he is ALWAYS charged with 0.527 runs.   If the reliever lets the run score he is charged with 0.473 runs, and if he doesn't he is charged with -0.527 runs.   It will add up the same, but the responsibility for the runs will be shared.   It will be possible for really really good relievers to have a negative ERA if they come in and strand runners.

Or use all of them together and understand their limitations 

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