I'm Ready for Mountcastle and Diaz: Mountcastle Up, Diaz Still Waiting

[DrungoHazewood]

43 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So are you saying that players drafted out of college like Mancini are less likely to perform as well as players drafted out of high school like Mountcastle because of the age difference?

I'm saying that someone who hits well in AAA at 22 is very likely to have a longer, more productive major league career than someone who hits similarly in AAA at 24. If that's all you know about someone you'd do well betting that the younger player will have a MLB career 50% more valuable.

But, yes, a high schooler will often have a higher ceiling because they have the opportunity to perform at higher levels faster.  The very best players often debut at teenagers or shortly thereafter, and you're not doing that if you've chosen to spend your age 19-21 or 22 seasons in college.  If you're that talented and highly regarded you don't go to college or you only spend a relatively brief time there.

[DrungoHazewood]

58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Totally agree and it’s why I wanted to deal Mancini before because I didn’t think we would lose much, if anything.

Still, Mancini has outperformed what his MiL numbers said he would, so we are now at the point where we can say that RM will be hard pressed to be as much of a success with the bat as Mancini has already had.  
 

While the ceiling is higher, the floor is much lower for Mountcastle simply because we don’t know yet if he will translate at the big league level.

Generally agree, but I have some faith in the scouting reports that say Mountcastle has a 65 or 70 hit tool, which means it's pretty likely he's going to hit at least .270 or .280 with some power.  Even if he never walks.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Generally agree, but I have some faith in the scouting reports that say Mountcastle has a 65 or 70 hit tool, which means it's pretty likely he's going to hit at least .270 or .280 with some power.  Even if he never walks.

Which will probably put him in the area of where we expect to see Mancini hit. (Well, provided he comes back from cancer..this talk is really about healthy Trey)

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm saying that someone who hits well in AAA at 22 is very likely to have a longer, more productive major league career than someone who hits similarly in AAA at 24. If that's all you know about someone you'd do well betting that the younger player will have a MLB career 50% more valuable.

But, yes, a high schooler will often have a higher ceiling because they have the opportunity to perform at higher levels faster.  The very best players often debut at teenagers or shortly thereafter, and you're not doing that if you've chosen to spend your age 19-21 or 22 seasons in college.  If you're that talented and highly regarded you don't go to college or you only spend a relatively brief time there.

So Verlander was doomed and so is Rutschman.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

So Verlander was doomed and so is Rutschman.

Do you understand that making a general comment doesn’t mean that the comment applies to everyone?

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you understand that making a general comment doesn’t mean that the comment applies to everyone?

A general statements that is often not true is not a good general statement.    Good and great players come to the majors from all different backgrounds.   On a normal year the top 10 players in the amateur draft have a good number out of college.      While many players sign out of high school  they are at a higher risk of not making it to the majors.

I think there is a pretty good mix of players that do well from both high school and college.

 

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

A general statements that is often not true is not a good general statement.    Good and great players come to the majors from all different backgrounds.   On a normal year the top 10 players in the amateur draft have a good number out of college.      While many players sign out of high school  they are at a higher risk of not making it to the majors.

I think there is a pretty good mix of players that do well from both high school and college.

 

At age 24 Aaron Judge was a late season call up who struggled. 

By age 24 Cody Bellinger has won a ROY and MVP and is playing his 4th season. 

This isn’t some mutually exclusive conversation. 

Odds are as good as Judge is Bellinger will have the better overall career. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

A general statements that is often not true is not a good general statement.    Good and great players come to the majors from all different backgrounds.   On a normal year the top 10 players in the amateur draft have a good number out of college.      While many players sign out of high school  they are at a higher risk of not making it to the majors.

I think there is a pretty good mix of players that do well from both high school and college.

 

College players have higher floors and high school players have higher ceilings.

Thats generally the case.

[makoman]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

A general statements that is often not true is not a good general statement.    Good and great players come to the majors from all different backgrounds.   On a normal year the top 10 players in the amateur draft have a good number out of college.      While many players sign out of high school  they are at a higher risk of not making it to the majors.

I think there is a pretty good mix of players that do well from both high school and college.

 

Yes, good and great players come from college all the time and no one said otherwise. That's irrelevant to the idea that when evaluating prospects age is incredibly important. Manny doing ok at AA at 19 is way more impressive than Lou Montanez being AA MVP at 26. Mountcastle being far more advanced than Mancini at an earlier age is an indication that he has a good chance to be better. Of course it might not happen as Mancini has basically gotten to his expected ceiling and we have no idea if Mountcastle will approach his. 

 

[Big Mac]

There are rumblings on twitter that Mountcastle is being called up.  Jason La Confora is reporting it. 

[DrungoHazewood]

51 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So Verlander was doomed and so is Rutschman.

That is a completely nonsensical response.  You're implying that if someone had drafted a hypothetical Rutschman at 17 or 18, and he'd reached the majors at 19 or 20 he'd have the same career expectations as the real Rutschman making his debut at 23.  That's absurd.  

Players certainly can have excellent careers if they debut after a college career.  But it's going to be unusual for someone who debuts at 23 or 24 to have the same value as an equally talented player 2, 3, 4 years younger.

[webbrick2010]

56 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So Verlander was doomed and so is Rutschman.

In a few years we will all be complaining about the Rutschman pick, now I'm the only one that seems to hate the pick, not that Rutschman couldn't be a very good player, but just my opinion that the very best catcher is not going to be as valuable as a good CF or SS and that's what a 1/1 should have been used for.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, webbrick2010 said:

In a few years we will all be complaining about the Rutschman pick, now I'm the only one that seems to hate the pick, not that Rutschman couldn't be a very good player, but just my opinion that the very best catcher is not going to be as valuable as a good CF or SS and that's what a 1/1 should have been used for.

Witt?

[DrungoHazewood]

35 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

At age 24 Aaron Judge was a late season call up who struggled. 

By age 24 Cody Bellinger has won a ROY and MVP and is playing his 4th season. 

This isn’t some mutually exclusive conversation. 

Odds are as good as Judge is Bellinger will have the better overall career. 

Going back to the 1980s, Bill James wrote a long piece in one of his last abstracts on rookie seasons showing hard data that just a few years difference in age among comparable rookies will have outsized impacts on career value. I don't have the book in front of me, but basically if you have a 2-win player who's a rookie at 21, and a 2-win player who's a rookie at 25, the 21 year old will likely have a career three or four times as valuable.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

In a few years we will all be complaining about the Rutschman pick, now I'm the only one that seems to hate the pick, not that Rutschman couldn't be a very good player, but just my opinion that the very best catcher is not going to be as valuable as a good CF or SS and that's what a 1/1 should have been used for.

Yes, we're well aware that you think you're right and everyone else is wrong.