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It's time for the OH to turn the page

wildcard

By wildcard
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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

This is what I love about statcast. Arguments over how good a guy is can be viewed through the metrics so lets; look at both Cole Sulser and Travis Lakins. First, let's look at movement of pitche

Too Tall
Too Tall

I'm an old, isolated guy and this is fun at a time when there isn't much fun. Watched the game last night with my son and we reminisced. When you expect them to lose and they win, the "beer is cold!"

HowAboutThat
HowAboutThat

I don’t think the ‘12 or  ‘14 teams backed into anything. 93 and 96 wins are not a fluke.

wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm glad you are enjoying the season and have a lot of optimism about the current group of players. While I do think there are some potential building block players (Hays, Santander, maybe even Alberto) on this current roster, I'm not convinced we've seen some major turn around. 

This is going to be very strange season and it's not out of the question that the Orioles find a way to stay competitive under these circumstances, but the reality is this team looks undermanned against every opponent. Maybe the coaching staff have found ways to get the most out of the current group and I do like the way Hyde is handling Wojo, Milone, Eshelman and LeBlanc with the extended bullpens, but I'm not convinced any of these guys are building blocks to sustained success after this season. 

I think we just need to enjoy this season for what it is, and don't get too caught up in anything one way of the other. This team is still 2-3 years from being consistently competitive over a full 162 game schedule and that's only if our current farm system starts to push out some impact players (Rutschman, Kjerstad?) and can rebuild a pitching staff while perhaps making a splash with a major league ready or nearly major league ready international signing.

 

I think there are more players here that can play on a contending team,  Santander, Hasy, Alberto, Ruiz, Nunez, Iglesias, Mountcastle.  The two catchers are hitting.  Surprising but maybe Long and Hyde have found something here.    Means,   Sulser,  Castro,  Scott, Lakins, Harvey  probably all have futures here.    Cobb is a present major leaguer.    Wojo, Leblanc and Milone look like they can be good for 4+ innings which works this year but not  next year.   

If the O's have this many players that can contend then the question that follows is where do the starters come from?   That is an off season question.   If the offense and defense is solid then its easier to find pitchers that can help.    But I don't think Elias sits on his hands and waits for Rodriguez and Hall to be ready.   There will be Akin, Kremer, Zimmerman, Lowther and Wells  But it falls on Elias to go get  some starters to supplement what they have.  This past off season he got LeBlanc an Milone.    Next off season he  will have to spend a little more and get some other established (better)   starters.   

Watching the development that is happening I don't think waiting to contend in 2023 is where the team is headed.   Its really about how to make the 2021 a team that can win 90.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think there are more players here that can play on a contending team,  Santander, Hasy, Alberto, Ruiz, Nunez, Iglesias, Mountcastle.  The two catchers are hitting.  Surprising but maybe Long and Hyde have found something here.    Means,   Sulser,  Castro,  Scott, Lakins, Harvey  probably all have futures here.    Cobb is a present major leaguer.    Wojo, Leblanc and Milone look like they can be good for 4+ innings which works this year but not  next year.   

If the O's have this many players that can contend then the question that follows is where do the starters come from?   That is an off season question.   If the offense and defense is solid then its easier to find pitchers that can help.    But I don't think Elias sits on his hands and waits for Rodriguez and Hall to be ready.   There will be Akin, Kremer, Zimmerman, Lowther and Wells  But it falls on Elias to go get  some starters to supplement what they have.  This past off season he got LeBlanc an Milone.    Next off season he  will have to spend a little more and get some other established (better)   starters.   

Watching the development that is happening I don't think waiting to contend in 2023 is where the team is headed.   Its really about how to make the 2021 a team that can win 90.

I do not think the plan included having the 2021 team win 90.  I don't think most of the highly regarded prospects will be playing in Baltimore next year.

If they get to 90 with AR, Hall, Rodriguez and Kjerstad in the minors then I'll be a believer.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think the difference in thinking here is you want everyone to " recognize the improvements" while many others don't feel we have enough data to make that assessment of real improvements vs a hot streak to start a season.

Let's look at one of the guys you discussed:

Rio Ruiz has some encouraging numbers between last year and this year. 

Stat       2019     2020    Dif
xBA       .233       .221      -.012
XSLG    .362      .443        .081
xWOBA .297     .319        .022
Barrel%  2.8%    17.4%     14.6%         92nd percentile in MLB
exitvel    88.4     91.7        3.3 MPH   85th percentile in MLB
LA           11.3     15.6        4.3 
K%          21.3%   28.2%    6.9% worse
BB%        9.7%     12.8%    3.1%          

So it seems like Ruiz is hitting the ball with more authority, getting more launch angle, which is course has hurt his strikeout rate and expected batting average a bit. Right now his barrel and exit velocity is among the top in MLB. Pitchers are starting throw him a bit more offspeed this year to adjust so we will have to see how this goes as the season progresses.

The improvement in exit velocity and barrels is impressive so he's actually one that I'm interested to follow and see if it levels out or if this is some kind of sustained improvement as he enters his peak years.

 


 

So you are agreeing that Ruiz is showing improvement.   I also think it was telling that he was missed in the field during the Marlin games.   

Its a nice analysis and one that I am not capable of doing.   That does not mean I can't see the improvement that Ruiz is making or anyone of the other Orioles as well.    I could tell you Ruiz is make more solid contact like late last year.   That he has put on some muscle that probably makes the ball go farther when he squares it up.   I can also say he looks more confident.   

I will leave the detail analysis to you and others that are better at it then I am.   But I come to the same conclusion.   Different is you don't believe you have enough data to say it will last.   I put the other factor on confidence,  add muscle and the fact the the O's don't have anyone else that can play 3rd as well which means Ruiz gets more chances to play.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do not think the plan included having the 2021 team win 90.  I don't think most of the highly regarded prospects will be playing in Baltimore next year.

If they get to 90 with AR, Hall, Rodriguez and Kjerstad in the minors then I'll be a believer.

That should be the off season goal.  Duquette did  it in the 2011-2012 off season.   Elias needs to show he can do that.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Jones

Markakis 

Hardy

Wieters

Hardy

Davis- better version 

Manny in system

We have that here now?

Younger version of those players.  CF- Hays, RF- Santander,  Not two Hardy but Iglesias at SS,  Nunez has already homer 31 and drove in 90. If they surround him with better hitters he could improve - 1B.   Mountcastle, Rutschman in the system.   Plus Alberto, Ruiz, Severino, Sisco

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