It's time for the OH to turn the page

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Philip said:

Can you clarify? Are you saying that in a normal year they’d be up now because they’d have started the year at Norfolk and would already have 40-50 AAA games under their belt?

As opposed to Nothing, or whatever clearance sale frenzy is going on in Bowie?

I may have misunderstood you but I wouldn’t have mentioned the guys if they weren’t ready now, without needing any more time. Certainly Akin is already here but he hasn’t played, Mountcastle should be here, and Kremer and Lowther should arguably be here. Certainly Hess isn’t blocking anyone, and I’d rather have any of them than Carroll or Phillips.

I don’t see any danger to bringing a guy up if he’s ready.

I’m saying in a normal year, with legit MiL experience, I expected most or all of those guys in the majors by this point in the season (ie, after the deadline).

But because they didn’t get that experience, they have chosen to keep them down. 
 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Different ownership.

I agree they could spend, we have yet to see that they will spend.

It’s not different and even if you want to consider it different, the “new owners” have shown more of a willingness to do the right things.

The other factor here is what happens when P.A. dies.  How will that work with taxes, etc...do they try to sell?  What are the inheritance taxes, etc...

There are some behind the scenes stuff we don’t know about.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

It’s not different and even if you want to consider it different, the “new owners” have shown more of a willingness to do the right things.

The other factor here is what happens when P.A. dies.  How will that work with taxes, etc...do they try to sell?  What are the inheritance taxes, etc...

There are some behind the scenes stuff we don’t know about.

It is different.  The team is being run by different people who probably have different goals.  Thus far their willingness to do the right things has not extended to increasing payroll.

I think it is prudent to not expect them to spend.

 

[wildcard]

I don't see Cobb being on the 2021 team.  It doesn't seem to follow the plan to keep him in his FA year and let him walk.  And I don't Elias extending a 30 something pitcher that is making 15m/yr.   I think he is traded in the next 18 days or over the off season. 

As I have said, the O's need to play at a .570 pace for them not to trade Cobb by Aug 31st.  

I think the 2021 rotation is Means, and in the 4th and 5th spots some combination of Akins, Kremer and Zimmerman.  Wojo is on audition now.  Whether he is in the rotation next year depends on how he does this season.   I don't see Leblanc and Milone being asked back.

Either Sisco or Severino could be traded for pitching.  They may not be worth much now but by the off season they could be more valuable.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see Cobb being on the 2021 team.  It doesn't seem to follow the plan to keep him in his FA year and let him walk.  And I don't Elias extending a 30 something pitcher that is making 15m/yr.   I think he is traded in the next 18 days or over the off season. 

As I have said, the O's need to play at a .570 pace for them not to trade Cobb by Aug 31st.  

I think the 2021 rotation is Means, and in the 4th and 5th spots some combination of Akins, Kremer and Zimmerman.  Wojo is on audition now.  Whether he is in the rotation next year depends on how he does this season.   I don't see Leblanc and Milone being asked back.

Either Sisco or Severino could be traded for pitching.  They may not be worth much now but by the off season they could be more valuable.

It all depends on demand for Cobb.  As for Sisco and Severino, they are probably going to be catching all season in Baltimore in 2021.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It is different.  The team is being run by different people who probably have different goals.  Thus far their willingness to do the right things has not extended to increasing payroll.

I think it is prudent to not expect them to spend.

 

Yes but they also took over in a time where it made little sense to expand on the payroll.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but they also took over in a time where it made little sense to expand on the payroll.

I'm not saying otherwise.  I just think the best course of action is to not expect them to spend until we see evidence to the contrary.

[eddie83]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He spent on Cobb and Ubaldo.

While Stroman will get more than them, he won’t get a 6+ year deal for 25+M a year either.

They certainly may not spend..but it’s not because of limited funds.

I’m not trying to say they are broke but I still think they aren’t going to be that aggressive that early. If for sake of argument they would sign Stroman and they aren’t a contender in 22 then it is year 3 of his contract when you need him at his best. I don’t think they will view that especially in a division like ours a worthwhile investment. 

This year aside under the current format they would have to be at worst a 3rd place team to make the playoffs. We know about NYY, Tampa is loaded in the minors and good now and the Jays are ahead of us. That would be a tall task to overcome in a hurry. 

I thought the Jays were too aggressive with Ryu. Then again I also didn’t buy him having success in this division. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying otherwise.  I just think the best course of action is to not expect them to spend until we see evidence to the contrary.

Well I never expect this franchise to do the proper thing, so I agree there.

[owknows]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I don’t think that follows. Even after the Tampa series, even NOW, there’s no indication that this team, overall, has been anything other than lucky, And there is no logical reason to keep a guy down on the farm if he is ready for at least an audition in the Bigs.
Akin Is here but has not played, so his service clock is ticking, which is a head scratcher. Kremer, Lowther Baumann(?) Would all be more desirable than Hess, at least. We whine constantly about Mountcastle’s absence, and so on. Stewart is terrible, but he should have a legitimate audition, and 18 at bats is not a legitimate audition.

The only thing I can think of is that Mike is attempting to showcase guys who may have a little bit of trade value, so he can trade them instead of just sending them down or designating them.

But it has not been shown that Mike is changing his plan because of unexpected success.

Interestingly, I disagree with your fundamental premise, but agree with your conclusion.

I think we are reaching the point where we can say with some level of confidence that more than luck is involved here. At least for some of these players. Between the number of games, and some notable difference in approach, confidence, and even the fight in them, it's becoming clear that not all of these guys are the same players they were last year. And you wouldn't necessarily expect them to be. You'd expect some development out of some younger and journeyman ballplayers. We just happen to be comprised of mostly younger and journeymen ballplayers.

That said, your suggestion that there is no logical reason to keep a guy down on the farm if he is ready for at least an audition in the Bigs.
and that Akin-Kremer-Lowther-Baumann might be better than some of what we are throwing out there is something I strongly agree with.

I think the real question in my mind, is whether we've passed the point in the rebuild where our primary question is "what can we trade away?"

And perhaps can start asking "did our strategy of picking guys off the scrap heap and developing some of our own position players pay enough dividends that we can think now about what to add to the ML club... instead of what to subtract from it?"

Not really sure we're there yet...  but just being able to consider the possibility is progress.

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I’m not trying to say they are broke but I still think they aren’t going to be that aggressive that early. If for sake of argument they would sign Stroman and they aren’t a contender in 22 then it is year 3 of his contract when you need him at his best. I don’t think they will view that especially in a division like ours a worthwhile investment. 

This year aside under the current format they would have to be at worst a 3rd place team to make the playoffs. We know about NYY, Tampa is loaded in the minors and good now and the Jays are ahead of us. That would be a tall task to overcome in a hurry. 

I thought the Jays were too aggressive with Ryu. Then again I also didn’t buy him having success in this division. 

I think they were too aggressive with Ryu because he’s not that good, especially taking him out of Chavez Revine and the NL in general.

But they have a ton of elite, young talent that is and was ready right now.

Nothing wrong at all with them spending on vet talent.  
 

Much like the Os, their payroll isn’t jumping up because of arb raises anytime soon. Much like the rookie QB contract in the NFL, this is now the time to spend.

[eddie83]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see Cobb being on the 2021 team.  It doesn't seem to follow the plan to keep him in his FA year and let him walk.  And I don't Elias extending a 30 something pitcher that is making 15m/yr.   I think he is traded in the next 18 days or over the off season. 

As I have said, the O's need to play at a .570 pace for them not to trade Cobb by Aug 31st.  

I think the 2021 rotation is Means, and in the 4th and 5th spots some combination of Akins, Kremer and Zimmerman.  Wojo is on audition now.  Whether he is in the rotation next year depends on how he does this season.   I don't see Leblanc and Milone being asked back.

Either Sisco or Severino could be traded for pitching.  They may not be worth much now but by the off season they could be more valuable.

I don’t know why you think Cobb is such a strong bet to be dealt. He is owed $15M next year. It would depend on the team but he is a lock to start a game in a best of 3 series for a contender? 

What is that worth to a team? 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

I don’t know why you think Cobb is such a strong bet to be dealt. He is owed $15M next year. It would depend on the team but he is a lock to start a game in a best of 3 series for a contender? 

What is that worth to a team? 

I think he’s saying that the Os are cheap and just don’t spend on him.  That they would rather dump him than keep him.

He may be right..I would hope not but I wouldn’t dismiss it either.

[eddie83]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I think they were too aggressive with Ryu because he’s not that good, especially taking him out of Chavez Revine and the NL in general.

But they have a ton of elite, young talent that is and was ready right now.

Nothing wrong at all with them spending on vet talent.  
 

Much like the Os, their payroll isn’t jumping up because of arb raises anytime soon. Much like the rookie QB contract in the NFL, this is now the time to spend.

I agree here but unlike the Orioles their top talent is already in the majors. They are a little like the  White Sox that way.  We would need our young bats to flourish pretty quick out of the gate. 

White Sox play in a much weaker division. This is why I think what MLB does with an expanded playoff format matters.  

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he’s saying that the Os are cheap and just don’t spend on him.  That they would rather dump him than keep him.

He may be right..I would hope not but I wouldn’t dismiss it either.

Well if they were trusted to actually invest the money saving $15M next year on an oft injured pitcher isn’t the worst thing. 

The better play is to eat some money to get better prospects.