The deadline is looming...Is Elias done?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Six more hours of hypothetically contending in 2020 while subtracting $10M from the budget.

What I wouldn't give for six more hours.

[Roll Tide]

26 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you average his position and yours you get pretty close to the truth.

I stated WAR from the last 5 years .... He’s a 10 WAR player over the past 5 season before he was traded by Elias. Not a .5. 
 

I don’t at all agree with your middle ground ....And last year was his best season by WAR but he also had a 3.2 season so it was a 1 shot thing

[Sports Guy]

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-traded-before-mlb-trade-deadline
 

Traded prospects and were they rank.

Os did well considering they didn’t have major trade chips.

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-traded-before-mlb-trade-deadline
 

Traded prospects and were they rank.

Os did well considering they didn’t have major trade chips.

3 out of the top 11....surprised to see Smith as the top from our group

[eddie83]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I never understood the angst for the Villar trade.  What do you think keeping him would have accomplished?

We never would have signed Iglesias and Villar would be playing his worst defensive position. 

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I stated WAR from the last 5 years .... He’s a 10 WAR player over the past 5 season before he was traded by Elias. Not a .5. 
 

I don’t at all agree with your middle ground ....And last year was his best season by WAR but he also had a 3.2 season so it was a 1 shot thing

That's not too surprising.

[jerios55]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

For the most part I agree ...My only point is we need to see what we get out of those 6 players before we gauge those trades.

Also you mention Bleier as being old and I think you are making more out of his age than GMs do. The Marlins got a number of years of control and other than the injury he was extremely productive. Relief pitchers are able to pitch to older ages so there was no reason to think he wouldn’t be able to pitch Through his controlled period which is what you are buying.

Id like to get something for Velazquez but don’t really expect much and hope we got 1 decent prospect for Milone considering Atlanta’s farm is so deep.

As far as expectations.... You can expect more than in past years because of the inability to trade guys who didn’t make the active player pool.

I believe Elias hinted that they got a player they really liked for Bleier. I’d expect the player that we got for Given and Castro to be quality. 
 

We will see

Don't get me wrong, he's younger than me.  Haha

I just think when you combine service time and cost, at this point he doesn't align with the current O's plan. 

Castro and Bleier were about to hit $2-3 million range on a team that (outside of Cobb/Davis) is bare bones.  Givens goes higher in a year as well.

This seems like a better plan than Villar.  We weren't going to pay his salary, and waiting until we did likely reduced the return.  The added seasons are value to other teams, so it should have increased the return (again we won't truly know for a while). 

I just think that everything we've seen to this point, it seems very in line with how Elias works.  The plan/vision is there and we aren't deviating.  Will it result in wins long term...we still don't know.  And while these traded guys weren't bums, they were just some of the better guys on a bad team and for now we have to watch worse (or at least questionable) guys. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Well of course it is.  You said you agreed 100% with the statement that the Villar deal was one of the worst trades in history.  It was trading two hypothetical wins for likely zero.  There have to be 100 more consequential trades every year for the past century.

My position in the discussion with Carrun.

It’s a fact that he’s a 2 war player over the last 5 years. 
 

Reaching back further to his rookie and softmore seasons aren’t reflective of who he has been. 
 

only 1 time in his career has he been a .5 player or worse. 
 

If you throw out the .1 and 3.9 he’s still not a 1/2 win player 

[Roll Tide]

22 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Don't get me wrong, he's younger than me.  Haha

I just think when you combine service time and cost, at this point he doesn't align with the current O's plan. 

Castro and Bleier were about to hit $2-3 million range on a team that (outside of Cobb/Davis) is bare bones.  Givens goes higher in a year as well.

This seems like a better plan than Villar.  We weren't going to pay his salary, and waiting until we did likely reduced the return.  The added seasons are value to other teams, so it should have increased the return (again we won't truly know for a while). 

I just think that everything we've seen to this point, it seems very in line with how Elias works.  The plan/vision is there and we aren't deviating.  Will it result in wins long term...we still don't know.  And while these traded guys weren't bums, they were just some of the better guys on a bad team and for now we have to watch worse (or at least questionable) guys. 

No argument... I just don’t think his age matters as much as a reliever in regard to his trade value. There’s every reason to believe he can still be an effective reliever through his team controlled period 

[jerios55]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No argument... I just don’t think his age matters as much as a reliever in regard to his trade value. There’s every reason to believe he can still be an effective reliever through his team controlled period 

And I do hope the PTBNL reflects that.

edit:

Speaking of, looks like Nov 1 (WS game 7 could be as late as Oct 31) will be the first day these names could be announced.  I see this article that broke down the A's players (looking for something else).  Would be interesting to see who could be coming, but that could be a lot of work.  But here's to a good November

https://www.athleticsnation.com/2020/8/28/21405993/mlb-trade-deadline-2020-player-to-be-named-later-ptbnl

Also will be curious later how the other 6 fit on a list like this:

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-traded-before-mlb-trade-deadline

 

[DrungoHazewood]

43 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

My position in the discussion with Carrun.

It’s a fact that he’s a 2 war player over the last 5 years. 
 

Reaching back further to his rookie and softmore seasons aren’t reflective of who he has been. 
 

only 1 time in his career has he been a .5 player or worse. 
 

If you throw out the .1 and 3.9 he’s still not a 1/2 win player 

I completely agree that characterizing him as a 1/2 win player is an exaggeration, but not as ridiculous as saying that Elias' trade of Villar was one of the worst trades in history.

Villar was a little better than average player who was due nearly $10M in arb for a team that was going to go 55-107.  It was perfectly reasonable to dump his salary, and just as reasonable to expect opposing teams to have little incentive to offer up much in return for a guy who might be non-tendered.

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-traded-before-mlb-trade-deadline
 

Traded prospects and were they rank.

Os did well considering they didn’t have major trade chips.

Good pull.  I think Elias did quite well.  I expect we are also going to like the PTBNL guys.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, hoosiers said:

Good pull.  I think Elias did quite well.  I expect we are also going to like the PTBNL guys.

My anticipation is that we get something along the lines of what we got for Cashner and/or potential role players (Bp arms, 4th OFer, UTi type guys) .

We May be able to get lucky and get someone in between..say an A ball player with a good profile but is realistically 2-3 years away.

Bur overall, I agree with your statement.  I think they will represent worthy returns for what we traded.

[hoosiers]

As was discussed during the offseason, creating, developing and selling off bullpen pieces is a great way to acquire quality prospects in a rebuild.  Givens and Castro were already in the organization, but hopefully ME can rinse/repeat acquiring new relievers this offseason and moving them next year.

I do very much like the effort to sign Milone last offseason and to deal him for prospects at the deadline.

As mentioned previously, it would have been nice to deal Fry and possibly LeBlanc for lottery picks as well.

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I completely agree that characterizing him as a 1/2 win player is an exaggeration, but not as ridiculous as saying that Elias' trade of Villar was one of the worst trades in history.

Villar was a little better than average player who was due nearly $10M in arb for a team that was going to go 55-107.  I

Ok ... But it was Elias' worst trade by far up to this point.

According to fangraphs the average MLB position player is a 2 WAR player. So I agree that he is about average.

 

I DONT CARE ABOUT THE MONEY I DONT CARE ABOUT THE MONEY I DONT CARE ABOUT THE MONEY I DONT CARE ABOUT THE MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The team had already slashed payroll substantially! Villar agreed to play for 8 million in a new environment in Miami. I think he might have taken less to stay here and play with Alberto, Nunez, Santander ETc. I mentioned 3 years at 6.5 or 7 million. Perfectly reasonable money for a 2 WAR player that seemed to be comfortable and happy playing here. The Orioles wont reinvest that saved 8 Million that they did not pay Villar ....Dont be fooled by thinking they will save that money for later. It just doesnt happen.

 

Quote

t was perfectly reasonable to dump his salary, and just as reasonable to expect opposing teams to have little incentive to offer up much in return for a guy who might be non-tendered.

We can agree to disagree! Elias overplayed his hand and it affected the return.