Santander may odd man out in 2021 or 2022

[ofan239]

With the emergence of the surplus of outfielders the Orioles have I realize now Santander may be on the outside looking in  come 2022 or even as early as 2021 . 
Here is what we have 

Mountcastle LF - should play somewhere everyday . Left field or dh 

Mullins - All three positions - fast but weak arm

Hayes - great tools , needs to stay healthy 

Stewart - good eye at plate , limited defensively 

Mancini - really should not be an outfielder at this point -should be at 1b full time next season ( Davis will play depending on match ups)

Santander - corner outfielder . 20+ hr power , limited defensively 

Others : Diaz, McKenna , later on Kjerstad 

I think the best outfield we could field for right now would be : Hayes , Mullins , Mountcastle . When Diaz is ready Diaz takes over rf from Hayes, Mullins goes on bench and Hayes moves to center . This would happen end of 2021
 

santander becomes trade chip  if Diaz works out 

 

 

 

 

[jamalshw]

I could see something like this next year:

1B/DH- Mancini

1B/DH- Mountcastle

LF- Santander

CF- Hays

RF- Stewart

4th OF- Mullins (could steal playing time from Hays if he struggles or is injured)

Nunez then gets moved.

Once Diaz is up and producing (if he produces), that is when I see a real roster crunch in the OF though these problems tend to work themselves out due to injuries and attrition. There's also a chance Mancini isn't fully ready (or himself) next year.

 

[survivedc]

Sure Hays is toolsy and has flashed, but not sure why he would be rated above Santander at the moment. Same could be said about Diaz or McKenna.

[Lucky_13]

I wonder if they believe Stewart is for real or think Diaz will be a better player, do they move Santander for a 3rd baseman or a shortstop?

I also agree Nunez is likely dealt in the offseason, too many guys that need at bats and he's too streaky and doesn't have a position. 

[hoosiers]

We are still a long ways from sorting the OFers out, but we have real talent - multiple players worthy of everyday opportunities.

[now]

I see a few different tiers here, based on how confident we can be of who the players are. Objectively this might be measured as service time to date, but instead I'll go with the more subjective gut approach, and keep it simple with three categories:

the known quantity: Mountcastle, Santander

inconsistent but promising: Mullins, Stewart

too soon to tell: Hays, Diaz, McKenna, Kjerstad

(Mancini obviously would go in tier 1, except post-surgery, falls to tier 3 for now. And if the mix gets too crowded there's always 1B.)

[wildcard]

i think it would be very odd if Santander was the man out.

[NCRaven]

Mancini only goes into Tier 1 for first basemen.  Not outfielders.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

We are still a long ways from sorting the OFers out, but we have real talent - multiple players worthy of everyday opportunities.

Refreshing, isn’t it?

[Frobby]

By the way, I think Santander will be an arbitration-eligible Super 2 next season.  I wonder what he’ll get as a salary.     I’d guess $1.25 mm or so.    

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

...though these problems tend to work themselves out due to injuries and attrition.

We're coming into this problem during a period where Stewart and Mullins are having maybe the best few weeks of their careers.  It's entirely plausible that one or both of them don't hit enough to be major league starters.  Mancini may not ever fully recover, or may take well into next year.  Hays has never put together an extended stretch where he was both healthy and good, at least not since A ball.  Santander has looked good over the past year, but still has defense and plate discipline concerns.  Mountcastle will not hit .364 for his career, I'll be beyond thrilled if he regularly hits over .300.  Once this all washes out it will probably look a lot less like a roster crunch.

There's a 90% chance that someone not currently in the organization will get 300 PAs as an outfielder for the 2022 Orioles.  There's probably a 30-50% chance that happens in 2021.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

By the way, I think Santander will be an arbitration-eligible Super 2 next season.  I wonder what he’ll get as a salary.     I’d guess $1.25 mm or so.    

Well that interferes with the goal of having a $14M non-Davis payroll in '21.

[jabba72]

13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

We're coming into this problem during a period where Stewart and Mullins are having maybe the best few weeks of their careers.  It's entirely plausible that one or both of them don't hit enough to be major league starters.  Mancini may not ever fully recover, or may take well into next year.  Hays has never put together an extended stretch where he was both healthy and good, at least not since A ball.  Santander has looked good over the past year, but still has defense and plate discipline concerns.  Mountcastle will not hit .364 for his career, I'll be beyond thrilled if he regularly hits over .300.  Once this all washes out it will probably look a lot less like a roster crunch.

There's a 90% chance that someone not currently in the organization will get 300 PAs as an outfielder for the 2022 Orioles.  There's probably a 30-50% chance that happens in 2021.

I'd be floored if the O's brought in anyone outside the organization to play OF by 2022. Remember Diaz and Kjerstad will be adding to the logjam pretty soon. I guess they aren't particularly deep at CF with Hays and Mullins not exactly taking the position.  

[DrungoHazewood]

44 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I'd be floored if the O's brought in anyone outside the organization to play OF by 2022. Remember Diaz and Kjerstad will be adding to the logjam pretty soon. I guess they aren't particularly deep at CF with Hays and Mullins not exactly taking the position.  

I think there's some pretty plausible paths to someone else coming in.  Like two injuries.  Or Hays gets hurt and Mullins hits .150 for a month.  Or Mancini isn't back, Mountcastle is playing first, they traded Nunez, and you have an outfield of Diaz, Stewart, Hays, Mullins... who is next up?  They're not calling up Kjerstad next year, McKenna has a .680 OPS at Bowie.  Someone like Mason Williams already has to pass through waivers to be sent down, he could be claimed.

When's the last year the Orioles didn't have some random guy get a few hundred plate appearances?  Valaika, Dwight Smith, Jace Peterson, Craig Gentry, Danny Valencia, Seth Smith, Hyun Soo Kim, Travis Snider, Jimmy Paredes, David Lough, Nick Hundley Steve Clevinger, Chris Dickerson, Alexi Casilla... Things always happen.

[VaBird1]

4 hours ago, ofan239 said:

With the emergence of the surplus of outfielders the Orioles have I realize now Santander may be on the outside looking in  come 2022 or even as early as 2021 . 
Here is what we have 

Mountcastle LF - should play somewhere everyday . Left field or dh 

Mullins - All three positions - fast but weak arm

Hayes - great tools , needs to stay healthy 

Stewart - good eye at plate , limited defensively 

Mancini - really should not be an outfielder at this point -should be at 1b full time next season ( Davis will play depending on match ups)

Santander - corner outfielder . 20+ hr power , limited defensively 

Others : Diaz, McKenna , later on Kjerstad 

I think the best outfield we could field for right now would be : Hayes , Mullins , Mountcastle . When Diaz is ready Diaz takes over rf from Hayes, Mullins goes on bench and Hayes moves to center . This would happen end of 2021
 

santander becomes trade chip  if Diaz works out 

 

 

 

 

That would be refreshing.  Roch said Mountcastle will be getting regular time at 1B for the rest of the season, so that may help.