Who are the #19 and #20 Prospects?

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

This is the part where I think the new regime (scouts), manager and coaching staff failed a bit. I'm not sure how anyone could have missed how bad a defensive outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. was already. I can understand thinking Smith Jr.s bat would potentially play better than Yaz's, but that defense was horrid by Smith. 

Good point.  I didn't really know much about him when we picked him up, but judging him by his 4th outfielder profile, I assumed that he had a solid glove and couldn't hit much.  But I agree, they whiffed pretty hard if they thought his glove was adequate.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Good point.  I didn't really know much about him when we picked him up, but judging him by his 4th outfielder profile, I assumed that he had a solid glove and couldn't hit much.  But I agree, they whiffed pretty hard if they thought his glove was adequate.

Maybe they knew how bad the glove was and didn't think corner outfield defense was a priority?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe they knew how bad the glove was and didn't think corner outfield defense was a priority?

Well then they're stupid.  I don't know what OPS DSJR would have to reach in order to nullify how terrible he is with the glove but I'm pretty sure that'd be impossible for him.

Maybe I didn't realize it during 2019, but I didn't take notice of how bad he was defensively until this year.  He was awful, and I think it got in his head a little it and snowballed on him.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well then they're stupid.  I don't know what OPS DSJR would have to reach in order to nullify how terrible he is with the glove but I'm pretty sure that'd be impossible for him.

Maybe I didn't realize it during 2019, but I didn't take notice of how bad he was defensively until this year.  He was awful, and I think it got in his head a little it and snowballed on him.

Some of us realized it in 2019. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Some of us realized it in 2019. 

Maybe I did, I can't remember.  But I think he got worse this year.

[LookinUp]

Damn, I really touched a nerve just by bringing up Yaz. Here's what I think about him:

1. Yes, he's one who got away. Yes, it happens to every franchise. Yes, that's to be expected.

2. I just read what he said within the last week. He was clear that the O's wanted him to do things a certain way. For whatever reason, it wouldn't work for him.

3. I think it's entirely reasonable to wonder if a data-driven regime that focuses on things like launch angle and probabilities would be somewhat inflexible in finding a solution for an individual which doesn't align with their preferences.

After all, if they teach Yaz a different way, their models say the odds of success go down. On the other hand, the actual odds of success doing things with Yaz their way were evidently zero. So, their choice became try Yaz's preferred low-odds approach, or go after a different guy using their preferred approach.

I'm not obsessing here. The O's are implementing an approach to improve the odds of success across hundreds of players. I'm ok with that, but it's quite possible that their approach led them to miss on a guy who doesn't fit their models cleanly.

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree with where you're coming from, but that's the shortsighted view.  The part you're ignoring is that they let him go but they brought Dwight Smith Jr instead, which was viewed as a wash at the time.  And if you believe what was reported the other day, they tried to mess with his swing and approach in the minors, the Giants just let him get back what worked for him.  

I will agree with you that it's a rare occurrence, but it still happens.  Max Muncy comes to mind because he's in the WS right now.  Teams let guys get away who have struggled in the minors and majors and they go on elsewhere to do good or great things.  

Well, I’m not sure the Smith move and Yaz decision are on the same level but let’s just say they are.

Yaz has a career MiL OpS of 782 and 136 of those at bats came in the PcL I believe. His best OpS was 919..at Delmarva..at age 24.  He was a zero prospect.  He wasn’t getting better playing at higher levels as a much older player.

I don’t know what they ever saw in Smith Jr either.  He’s not good.  But Yaz was nothing.  There isn’t one person in baseball that would bat an eye at releasing a guy in his late 20s with a mediocre at best MiL career track record. Smith not being a good MLer has nothing to do with Yaz.  

Good for him for changing his swing and figuring something out.  It’s nothing more than that.  And btw, this Yaz has basically one season worth of at bats under his belt.  Let’s see if he can keep this up and show he’s not a fluke.  
 

 

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe they knew how bad the glove was and didn't think corner outfield defense was a priority?

Yea I’m sure they knew the glove wasn’t great but didn’t care.  He isn’t moving the needle in either direction.  

[LookinUp]

I agree that you can't blame the O's for giving up on Yaz. I still would like them to take the time on trying to understand what they missed. That's just due diligence.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Damn, I really touched a nerve just by bringing up Yaz. Here's what I think about him:

1. Yes, he's one who got away. Yes, it happens to every franchise. Yes, that's to be expected.

2. I just read what he said within the last week. He was clear that the O's wanted him to do things a certain way. For whatever reason, it wouldn't work for him.

3. I think it's entirely reasonable to wonder if a data-driven regime that focuses on things like launch angle and probabilities would be somewhat inflexible in finding a solution for an individual which doesn't align with their preferences.

After all, if they teach Yaz a different way, their models say the odds of success go down. On the other hand, the actual odds of success doing things with Yaz their way were evidently zero. So, their choice became try Yaz's preferred low-odds approach, or go after a different guy using their preferred approach.

I'm not obsessing here. The O's are implementing an approach to improve the odds of success across hundreds of players. I'm ok with that, but it's quite possible that their approach led them to miss on a guy who doesn't fit their models cleanly.

I think you are overthinking things.  They saw a guy who was “old” and didn’t perform that great even when he was much older than his competition.

I think it’s that simple.  

[LookinUp]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I think you are overthinking things.  They saw a guy who was “old” and didn’t perform that great even when he was much older than his competition.

I think it’s that simple.  

That's not how a smart, analytic organization thinks. It's reasonable, but lazy. The whole goal is to try to tap potential. They didn't. I'm not killing them for it. I agree that it happens to every org. Still, as my other post said, I'd still want to know what they missed and why they missed it, or at least I'd like them to understand that.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

That's not how a smart, analytic organization thinks. It's reasonable, but lazy. The whole goal is to try to tap potential. They didn't. I'm not killing them for it. I agree that it happens to every org. Still, as my other post said, I'd still want to know what they missed and why they missed it, or at least I'd like them to understand that.

It’s absolutely how a smart organization will think.  You don’t have an infinite number of spots.  You have to see other players.  When a guy has been in your organization for several years and is far older than the competition, there isn’t a lot of reason to keep him around.  
 

You can’t just hang onto guys forever and hope it clicks for them.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I agree that you can't blame the O's for giving up on Yaz. I still would like them to take the time on trying to understand what they missed. That's just due diligence.

They missed a huge fluke. 

I think if you spend resources looking for the next Yaz you are going to not do work that has a much higher success rate. 

If you get a Yaz you rejoice, if you lose a Yaz you shrug it off.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They missed a huge fluke. 

I think if you spend resources looking for the next Yaz you are going to not do work that has a much higher success rate. 

If you get a Yaz you rejoice, if you lose a Yaz you shrug it off.

Just to piggyback off of this.

Can you imagine if we found out the Os were dropping younger, higher upside players in favor of 27 year old mediocre players in hopes you catch lightning in the bottle?

They would be crucified for that and rightfully so.  
 

It’s just not a smart use of resources.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s absolutely how a smart organization will think.  You don’t have an infinite number of spots.  You have to see other players.  When a guy has been in your organization for several years and is far older than the competition, there isn’t a lot of reason to keep him around.  
 

You can’t just hang onto guys forever and hope it clicks for them.

What spot was Yaz taking up in AAA? the Orioles gave Mason Williams (27) 494 PAs and Christopher Bostick (26) 442 PAs in the outfield. 

Yaz barely got a look in spring training before they jettisoned him, and just a year after he OPS'd .801 in Norfolk (before they introduced the superballs in 2019 that made it a hitter's league). He's a guy who outperforms his expected stats (WOBA .400 vs .355 xWOBA) and I think he probably didn't score high on exit velocity and launch angle with Orioles during spring training and Elias felt that along with age made him worthless.

I'm not saying that the Orioles should have known he would break out with some changes, but it does bare looking at the process a little closer. What scouting did they use to bring in Dwight Smith Jr.? Who didn't know he was a disaster in the outfield? For some reason the Blue Jays DFA'd after he had hit well in his major league debut, so what did they see that the Orioles FO did not?