Update: Orioles sign 17 international players highlighted by Basallo and Hernandez

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

These rankings of 16-17 year old kids mean nothing.  For the most part, I would rather see them get as many 5 and 6 figure guys as they can.  If you are able to pop the game occasional 7 figure guy that you really love, so be it but the more of those you sign, the less total players you bring on.  All of these kids are lottery tickets.

So it sounds like you like the O’s J2 2019 approach (44 players, none of whom exceeded $400 k or so) better than their J15 2021 approach (about 24 players, including two who may be in the $1 mm+ category).    The 2019 approach was out of necessity since all the expensive players were taken, whereas the O’s were able to find a few of the more expensive guys in this incoming class.    

It would be interesting to do a study of the last few years of incoming major leaguers and see how often high bonuses pay off.    As discussed, the system has changed a lot over the last decade or so.
 

 

[Roll Tide]

37 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Absolutely!  That would mean we were winning a lot of games.

Thats not what I mean .... Go back and read the thread.

[Roll Tide]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

These rankings of 16-17 year old kids mean nothing.  For the most part, I would rather see them get as many 5 and 6 figure guys as they can.  If you are able to pop the game occasional 7 figure guy that you really love, so be it but the more of those you sign, the less total players you bring on.  All of these kids are lottery tickets.

I don't think it hurts to sign 1 player in the top 15. I am not saying that we need to break the bank. The lottery the bank on a bunch of these guys ...I think we can do better than #30 and #35ish?? for the other guy.

[jamalshw]

20 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don't think it hurts to sign 1 player in the top 15. I am not saying that we need to break the bank. The lottery the bank on a bunch of these guys ...I think we can do better than #30 and #35ish?? for the other guy.

I think we will do a lot better than that, but if you consider the Orioles noted it would be a few years when they ramped up their international presence, I think it's a good sign they are already able to capture a couple of the higher ranked options. Yes, they didn't get a top 10-15 guy, but as many noted, these rankings are meaningless and this is even more subjective than draft rankings given the limited information on players. Teams are usually recruiting a couple years out for this, the fact we got two guys in the top-35 is pretty good considering we were still starting from behind.

I would also like to point out, that with 30 teams, that averages out to 1.17 players per team in the top 35, the Orioles got two. That's not half bad.

[Sports Guy]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So it sounds like you like the O’s J2 2019 approach (44 players, none of whom exceeded $400 k or so) better than their J15 2021 approach (about 24 players, including two who may be in the $1 mm+ category).    The 2019 approach was out of necessity since all the expensive players were taken, whereas the O’s were able to find a few of the more expensive guys in this incoming class.    

It would be interesting to do a study of the last few years of incoming major leaguers and see how often high bonuses pay off.    As discussed, the system has changed a lot over the last decade or so.
 

 

Yes I prefer the 2019 approach more BUT I don’t mind the 2020 approach either.  If you really value a guy, by all means, go out and get the player.  I will never be upset about that.
 

However, I’m not going to get upset if they don’t spend 7 figure bonuses either.  As long as they are spending the money and bringing in the players, I’m good.  I want to see at least some 6 figure guys but just bring in the inventory and see what happens.

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don't think it hurts to sign 1 player in the top 15. I am not saying that we need to break the bank. The lottery the bank on a bunch of these guys ...I think we can do better than #30 and #35ish?? for the other guy.

But here we are again, relying on some publications ranking.  The difference between the 13th guy and the 29th guy is minimal, especially when you are talking about 16-18 year old kids.  You have zero idea how they will develop.  
 

We really have to stop basing all opinions on rankings.  Most of them suck, are wrong or are meaningless.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

There is some sentiment that Maikol Hernandez could end up being one of the better prospects in this J2 class. He is just not as polished as some of the higher ranked SS’s. A 6-03 175 lb. SS, who gets some comparisons to Correa and ARod for his smoothness, arm and power potential. Mostly a line drive hitter, gap to gap, at present. 

And Basallo is the highest rated catcher in the DR. A LH hitting catcher at 6-03 200 lbs, he has a very strong arm and a power bat. There is some concern that he outgrows catcher down the line. 

There are a few more signings around the level of the highest ones in 2019, bonuses in the the $400k plus range. One is a LH power hitting corner OF, the name escapes me at the moment. 

The first two generally rank in the top 30-35 in BA and MLB. Overall, from what I have read, it is a well regarded class with the top group being their best prospects in a long time to sign internationally. And that is BA’s Ben Badler and the MLB guy, Jesse Sanchez, saying that. If that is bargain bin stuff, sign me up.

Koby Perez has stated that next year’s class is going to be where they make a big splash as most of the top guys have been committed for two years. I think they have done an outstanding job establishing relationships and credibility thus far. 

Thanks for actually adding something to the discussion. Enjoyed reading!

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So there are 32 teams and the best talent you can talk into signing or willing to pay enough to sign with you is the 30-35 best available player.

Imagine the MLB draft every year if the Orioles were forced to pick somewhere in the 30-35 range. Would you sign up for that? 

Imagine wanting your opinion about baseball taken seriously and not knowing how many teams are in MLB.

[MurphDogg]

51 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don't think it hurts to sign 1 player in the top 15. I am not saying that we need to break the bank. The lottery the bank on a bunch of these guys ...I think we can do better than #30 and #35ish?? for the other guy.

You can't do that if the top 15 players already agreed to deals with teams that have been nurturing that relationship for 3-4 years. The Orioles have been up front with how long the process was going to take and there is no reason to suggest they are lying about the timeline involved.

Everyone agrees that the top players agree to these deals years in advance, so the Orioles were only going to make a splash with late bloomers or by going quantity over quality in these first couple years.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Imagine wanting your opinion about baseball taken seriously and not knowing how many teams are in MLB.

It’s a blog site ....yes there are 30 not 32. It’s not a relevant difference maker in my principal point. What does it say about you to feel the need to stoop low enough to mention it?

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It’s a blog site ....yes there are 30 not 32. It’s not a relevant difference maker in my principal point. What does it say about you to feel the need to stoop low enough to mention it?

Sorry, that was on me, I should have combined my two posts.

Your principal point was dumb and misinformed, which is befitting of someone who doesn't know how many Major League teams there are.

The idea that the Orioles should just find the list of the top guys and throw the most money at them fundamentally misunderstands how the process works.

[connja]

 

45 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

 

I would also like to point out, that with 30 teams, that averages out to 1.17 players per team in the top 35, the Orioles got two. That's not half bad.

Extending the draft anaology, it's the same concept of would you prefer the first pick or the last pick + the first pick in the second round  in your fantasy snake draft.  Both have virtue!

[hoosiers]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

So it sounds like you like the O’s J2 2019 approach (44 players, none of whom exceeded $400 k or so) better than their J15 2021 approach (about 24 players, including two who may be in the $1 mm+ category).    The 2019 approach was out of necessity since all the expensive players were taken, whereas the O’s were able to find a few of the more expensive guys in this incoming class.    

It would be interesting to do a study of the last few years of incoming major leaguers and see how often high bonuses pay off.    As discussed, the system has changed a lot over the last decade or so.
 

 

In the past (say 10 years ago), the best values were the lower paid guys (I'm going to say $10k-$250k) and the $M bonus babies did not work out as well.  There were also value opportunities in kids not signed at 16 who grew and had value as 17 and 18 year olds. 

I wonder if scouting has improved in the last decade or if some have a secret sauce that nets better players, but I do not know if one organization has consistently outproduced others.  It would be interesting to see an analysis updating the return in terms of prospect status and big league production versus signing bonuses since 2010.

If I am forced to choose, I would prefer the strength in numbers of the lower $ guys (and would take as many of them as I can - thought I believe there can be nice value found even in the $250k-$750k range.

However, I would most prefer the path that we appear to be going down - participating in grabbing our share of the $1+M guys AND signing lower $ contract guys.

 

[Roll Tide]

27 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Sorry, that was on me, I should have combined my two posts.

Your principal point was dumb and misinformed, which is befitting of someone who doesn't know how many Major League teams there are.

The idea that the Orioles should just find the list of the top guys and throw the most money at them fundamentally misunderstands how the process works.

Truly a class act!

 

My position is neither dumb or misinformed. It’s pretty’s obvious that the best players are the most sought after and demand the most money. Are they still lottery tickets ? Sure but I’m sure there is some data that proves that the success rate is also higher
 

If you don’t get that so be it .... but that doesn’t mean you have to be an ass.

[Roll Tide]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But here we are again, relying on some publications ranking.  The difference between the 13th guy and the 29th guy is minimal, especially when you are talking about 16-18 year old kids.  You have zero idea how they will develop.  
 

We really have to stop basing all opinions on rankings.  Most of them suck, are wrong or are meaningless.

So why do the Yankees, Dodgers, etc spend $2 million on one of these guys rather than outbid the Orioles by 250,000 on the 30th or 35th rated guy? I’m just curious and don’t tell me it’s because they have the money to piss away.