How long do the O’s need to be bad

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Again, you miss the point.

We lost for fourteen years.  We never built a good farm system in all that time.

Despite some years having high rankings based on high draft picks.

Top 10 system from 2009-2010.  Not sure how selective you are with "Good" but I think top third counts.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Top 10 system from 2009-2010.  Not sure how selective you are with "Good" but I think top third counts.

Those high rankings were almost solely the result of picking in the top 5 AND some good trading by MacPhail- who actually had a ML asset or two when he arrived unlike Elias.

It was not a testament to the Orioles ability to find and develop players though.

Before we go down this road, I think I should clearly state we don't seem to disagree.  I said 3-5 years.  You presented the Mariners as an example of doing it in 3 years.  Even if I accept the premise that they did what you say, that fits into the window I provided.

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

I think there's a big difference between having a top Farm System per the offseason Top 100 pundit rankings, having a Farm System stocked with true high-ceiling talent, and having a Farm System that can actually develop players. There's something to be said for all of those things.

The Orioles problem for a long time has been they cannot develop pitching, in spite of having high draft picks who were Top 100 prospects. My hope  was that Elias would reform the Farm System to create a system that could successfully develop talent into big league success, especially pitchers. I think its still a little early to judge him on that, but Dylan Bundy's success with the Angels hasn't been a confidence booster. Likewise, the talent that Elias has added to the Orioles Top Prospects has been relatively uninspiring as well. I do not count obvious picks like Rutschman and other high-picks as successes for the Elias regime. You just can't whiff on those.

Overall, I think the current rebuild is in its infancy - like you mentioned. Outside of DL Hall and GrayRod - the impact pitching talent has been pretty slim. Without success from them, it might be a long while before things turnaround. I was super excited about the Elias hire at first, but my enthusiasm has diminished rapidly as the results have looked more lackluster with time. I would not be surprised if we're in store for a lot more lousy baseball. And, I wouldn't be surprised if the next winning team comes under the watch of another GM.

 

I think a fan with a certain bit of refinement should understand that prospect rankings are not definitive statements on the health of a player development system.  What the O's need to be able to do to win consistently at the ML level is find and develop players better than their peers.  Taking Rutchsman doesn't actually resolve that issue.  Whiffing on 1-2 doesn't resolve that issue.  Neither does losing 100 games a year.  That issue is resolved in improving the O's processes in finding and developing amateur talent.  So if you want to criticize Elias or the rebuild, criticize that.  The fact that the O's stink in 2021, or 2020, or 2023, was predestined several years before it happened.

You hit the O's biggest organizational failure on the head: The failure to develop quality pitching.  I've said this before and I'll say it again: The reason so many highly ranked minor league arms fail here and go on to do better elsewhere in some cases is because pitching for the O's is the most difficult pitching environment in the big leagues, and I don't think it is close.  Based on who and where you pitch, this is easily the worst place to pitch in the major leagues, other than maybe Colorado.

So if Elias doesn't solve that particular riddle, he is mostly likely to fail.  I don't think he's infallible.  It's very possible he does fail.  But I'm not going to get up in arms about the O's being shit 2 and a half years into what I takes twice that time to favorably construct.

[Philip]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Whaaat?    Speed Racer lasted all of two years in original episodes (tons of syndicated reruns).    Casper the Friendly Ghost was created in 1939 and was still featured in shows as late as 2012, plus a feature film.   There is no way you could have grown up in America without encountering Casper.    Next thing you know you’ll be telling me you never heard of Woody Woodpecker!!

Of course I knew him but I never watched him. I thought those cartoons were stupid, even as an 8-year old. Tom and Jerry too. But the Warner bros gang were brilliant. 
i was very fond of Mighty Mouse, too. The artwork was stunning.

[LTO's]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mariners went from 30th to second (BA) in I think three years.

And they didn't have to lose 100 games to do it.

Two of their top 5 prospects were international signings (including their #1) and Kelenic was acquired via trade. Obviously it was a very dumb trade by the Mets but regardless the Orioles didn't have a reliever as sought after as Diaz since Britton. Who, as you know, was not able to be traded by Elias. 

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Two of their top 5 prospects were international signings (including their #1) and Kelenic was acquired via trade. Obviously it was a very dumb trade by the Mets but regardless the Orioles didn't have a reliever as sought after as Diaz since Britton. Who, as you know, was not able to be traded by Elias. 

And they didn't get to pick 1-1 and 1-2.

Elias was basically handed the second best prospect in the game.

[LTO's]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And they didn't get to pick 1-1 and 1-2.

Elias was basically handed the second best prospect in the game.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at? It took them 3 years to make a big jump same as the Orioles under Elias. Dipoto has also been the GM since 2015 so through a pretty big stroke of luck he has a top 5 farm 6 years into his tenure. With no playoff appearances at the big league level either. If you're point is that they've built a competitive team this year while also developing a top 5 farm then you are going to be disappointed. They aren't good.  3 7 inning wins where they got extremely lucky against a 100 loss team doesn't prove much. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

I'm not really sure what you're getting at? It took them 3 years to make a big jump same as the Orioles under Elias. Dipoto has also been the GM since 2015 so through a pretty big stroke of luck he has a top 5 farm 6 years into his tenure. With no playoff appearances at the big league level either. If you're point is that they've built a competitive team this year while also developing a top 5 farm then you are going to be disappointed. They aren't good.  3 7 inning wins where they got extremely lucky against a 100 loss team doesn't prove much. 

They made a larger jump despite not going into hard core tank mode.

My point was that you don't have to collect top five picks for four to five years to build a farm system.

Of course the Mariners were not under strict guidance to cut payroll at all costs.

[LTO's]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My point was that you don't have to collect top five picks for four to five years to build a farm system.

I mean it's taken Dipoto 6 years to build a good farm and he still hasn't built a quality ML team with way more reasources. You can chose 3 years as arbitrary point if you want but leaving off the three years before that paints a way rosier picture. People here are calling for Elias to be canned after ONE minor league season under his belt with maybe a few million to spend each offseason. The one minor league season saw vast improvements pretty much across the board especially pitching. It's not Elias' fault or really the Sons' fault that Buck didn't bring in Britton and then they had two horrible seasons. That should not factor into how we view the current regime no matter how bad losing sucks. He should be given 4 drafts, 2 int'l classes and 3 minor league seasons at a minimum to show improvements. 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I mean it's taken Dipoto 6 years to build a good farm and he still hasn't built a quality ML team with way more reasources. You can chose 3 years as arbitrary point if you want but leaving off the three years before that paints a way rosier picture. People here are calling for Elias to be canned after ONE minor league season under his belt with maybe a few million to spend each offseason. The one minor league season saw vast improvements pretty much across the board especially pitching. It's not Elias' fault or really the Sons' fault that Buck didn't bring in Britton and then they had two horrible seasons. That should not factor into how we view the current regime no matter how bad losing sucks. He should be given 4 drafts, 2 int'l classes and 3 minor league seasons at a minimum to show improvements. 

His emphasis wasn't on building the farm system when he arrived.  I mean they all say that of course but you have to work with what ownership wants. 

I don't think the point was arbitrary at all, they were last and now they are second best (by one metric).  What he did previously doesn't change the idea that (by one metric) you can go from 30 to 2 quickly and without completely sacrificing the ML team.

Y'all are judging Elias on a serious curve.  I'm not at all suggesting he should be fired but he hasn't exactly been exceeding his peer group.

I mean seriously four drafts to "show improvement"?  Who gets that?

[LTO's]

 

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I mean they all say that of course but you have to work with what ownership wants. 

Well then he failed miserably at that to the point where he had to sell off ML talent. Is that not tanking? Also isn't Elias working with what ownership wants??? What should he be doing differently.

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Y'all are judging Elias on a serious curve.

Should he not be? Handed a 120 loss ML team with no international pipeline whatsoever. All of his peers have multiple international prospects in their top 10s/20s. The Mariners would not have a top 5 farm without Rodriguez. It's an extremely top heavy system. 

Also a full minor league season was cancelled and the draft was shrunk by 30+ rounds. When has that ever happened? When you are trying to stock a farm with talent across the board that affects you way more than other teams. Grading on a curve is more than warranted. I don't think he's the best GM in baseball. But what he's done has been praised by pretty much every scouting publication across the board. What do you know that they don't?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They made a larger jump despite not going into hard core tank mode.

My point was that you don't have to collect top five picks for four to five years to build a farm system.

I think this is factual, but you have to look at each team’s situation.    I think Elias came in with two very big disadvantages:

- No top talent on the major league roster that could be traded for truly high-end prospect talent.   
- Virtually no Latin American presence, and no Latin American prospects in the pipeline.   

I think the latter is a really huge and underappreciated issue.   Elias and Perez have done a great job of addressing this, but it will be several seasons before those efforts produce results at the major league level.

I also think that the lack of a MiL season last year (1) slowed down the development opportunities for our younger players, and (2) made it impossible for outsiders to judge what progress those players made while working on their own last year.   There was no opportunity for us to say “Player X made a big leap last year.”   So in my mind it’s very difficult to say where our farm system stands relative to others right now.   Ask me in September.   

[LTO's]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I mean seriously four drafts to "show improvement"?  Who gets that?

Literally every single GM in baseball. Is that a serious question? I honestly can't tell. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Literally every single GM in baseball. Is that a serious question? I honestly can't tell. 

Four years to "show improvement"?  I don't think they get four years to "show improvement". 

Evidence of improvement should be coming way before draft #4.

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Four years to "show improvement"?  I don't think they get four years to "show improvement". 

Evidence of improvement should be coming way before draft #4.

Fine. Perhaps improvement is not the right word. The Orioles farm has drastically improved after less than 1.5 drafts. My point is firing a GM after 3 or fewer drafts is reactionary.