The baserunning thread 2021

[glenn__davis]

6 hours ago, survivedc said:

I think there’s a good chance that if the guy covering second catches that ball he still doesn’t get it to 3rd in time to get Ruiz. Poor play by the catcher immediately throwing instead of charging the runner and making him commit.

Agreed.  I think Ruiz would have been safe either way.

I chuckled the previous half inning when the catcher (Chad Wallach) got a hit, and Ben McDonald said something along the lines of "Wallach's not really known for his bat, or his glove".  Well then, what exactly is he known for??  I guess we saw a glimpse of that there.

[Frobby]

Game 26, April 30

With a 3-2 lead and one out, Ryan Mountcastle tried to go first to third on a single to RCF, but was thrown out by Ramón Laureano at 3B on a fairly close play.    In the generic situation (one run lead, one out), trying to go 1st to 3rd is not a terrible idea.   But testing Laureano’s arm is always questionable.   Brandon Hyde said after the game that he didn’t mind being aggressive in a situation like that, but he didn’t think Mountcastle got a good read on the ball.

 

[hutchead]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Game 26, April 30

With a 3-2 lead and one out, Ryan Mountcastle tried to go first to third on a single to RCF, but was thrown out by Ramón Laureano at 3B on a fairly close play.    In the generic situation (one run lead, one out), trying to go 1st to 3rd is not a terrible idea.   But testing Laureano’s arm is always questionable.   Brandon Hyde said after the game that he didn’t mind being aggressive in a situation like that, but he didn’t think Mountcastle got a good read on the ball.

 

I thought a good slide toward the home plate side of the bag would have got him there. Doesn't the third base coach indicate which way to slide?

[Frobby]

Game 29, May 3

I’m giving a shout out to Austin Hays for scoring on Maikel Franco’s ground out to SS in the 8th.   The infield was playing in, and Franco’s grounder was just a little to the 3B side of the SS.   But Hays was off on contact and the SS took one quick look home and decided his only play was to 1B.   I’d say less than 50% of runners score on that ball.   

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Didn't see the play but if he went on contact then that's the play that was on and it required no judgment on his play.  Just saying.

It still requires quick reaction time and a decent burst of speed.   I agree his instructions were probably go on contact.  

PS - you can see it here under “Maikel Franco’s RBI groundout.”

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/orioles-vs-mariners/2021/05/03/634242#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=634242

[Frobby]

Game 38, May 14

There were two plays in this game that caught my attention.   First, DJ Stewart hit a sinking liner to RCF that Aaron Judge dove for but only gloved it on a bounce.  Stewart tried for a double and Judge made an accurate throw from his knees, but the 2B lost possession of the ball while trying to make the tag so Stewart was safe.   Kind of a risky play, but it worked our and Stewart eventually scored.   

Later in the inning, the O’s had runners on 1st and 2nd and Hays tried to score from 1B on a single one-hopper off the RF wall and was out by about 10 feet to end the inning.   The play wasn’t close and it was a terrible send by the 3B coach in my opinion.    
 

[Aristotelian]

Hindsight is 20/20 but Mullins was caught on a bang bang play with Hays up. Hays proceeded to homer so that play arguably cost us the game.

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Hindsight is 20/20 but Mullins was caught on a bang bang play with Hays up. Hays proceeded to homer so that play arguably cost us the game.

I will say it wasn't all just hindsight.  Watching it live as soon as I saw Hays going I was like "Oh $#1+ don't send him he doesn't have a chance".  It was pretty clearly a bad send from the start.

And I'm someone that usually likes to see agressive 3B coaching and doesn't usually complain about outs at the plate.  I always say if a hypothetical 3B coach never has a guy thrown out at the plate he's doing something wrong because they means he isn't sending the guys with an 80% or 90% chance of making it and you SHOULD send those guys and accept the 10-20% failures.

But this...was a bad send.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

I will say it wasn't all just hindsight.  Watching it live as soon as I saw Hays going I was like "Oh $#1+ don't send him he doesn't have a chance".  It was pretty clearly a bad send from the start.

And I'm someone that usually likes to see agressive 3B coaching and doesn't usually complain about outs at the plate.  I always say if a hypothetical 3B coach never has a guy thrown out at the plate he's doing something wrong because they means he isn't sending the guys with an 80% or 90% chance of making it and you SHOULD send those guys and accept the 10-20% failures.

But this...was a bad send.

Aristotelian wasn’t talking about that play, he was talking about the Mullins CS in the first inning.   

With two outs, it makes sense to send the runner if there is better than 40% of scoring.  But Hays didn’t have even that.   He was out by miles.   
 

[spiritof66]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Aristotelian wasn’t talking about that play, he was talking about the Mullins CS in the first inning.   

With two outs, it makes sense to send the runner if there is better than 40% of scoring.  But Hays didn’t have even that.   He was out by miles.   
 

I think this is academic because there's no way the chance of Hays scoring was anywhere near 40 percent since it took just two fairly routine throws by an outfielder and an infielder, both  strong and accurate throwers, and catches by guys who can catch to nail Hayes by 15 feet.

But I'm curious. Should the 40 percent be increased to reflect the fact that holding the runner would leave an additional runner on second with two outs, who would be erased if Hays were out at the plate? Or is that baked into the 40 percent break point, or of so little value with two outs that it doesn't have much effect?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I think this is academic because there's no way the chance of Hays scoring was anywhere near 40 percent since it took just two fairly routine throws by an outfielder and an infielder, both  strong and accurate throwers, and catches by guys who can catch to nail Hayes by 15 feet.

But I'm curious. Should the 40 percent be increased to reflect the fact that holding the runner would leave an additional runner on second with two outs, who would be erased if Hays were out at the plate? Or is that baked into the 40 percent break point, or of so little value with two outs that it doesn't have much effect?

I was doing a finger to the wind thing there.   The chances of at least one run scoring with a runner on 3B and two out are 38%.

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I was doing a finger to the wind thing there.   The chances of at least one run scoring with a runner on 3B and two out are 38%.

Yeah, to do it "right" you would have to look at win probabilities.   Because making an out at the plate could eliminate MORE than one potential run that might have scored.   And of course depending on where you are in the game, the importance of getting at least one run is more critical than at other times.

[Frobby]

From Joe Trezza:

Compounding their offensive struggles was a self-inflicted wound on the basepaths, when Hays was thrown out trying to score on Mancini’s sixth-inning double into the right-field corner.

Running from first, Hays initially adhered to third-base coach Tony Masolino’s stop sign, after Juan Soto fielded the ball. Had his relay throw arrived cleanly, the Orioles would’ve had a second-and-third, one-out situation with cleanup hitter Santander coming to the plate, plus the platoon advantage against Strasburg. But then, wildness.

When Soto overthrew cutoff man Josh Harrison, Hays broke for home. He quickly regretted it, because first baseman Josh Bell was backing up the play. Bell corralled Soto’s throw and threw Hays out at the plate. Santander then struck out to end the inning, and the Orioles did not score.

“It’s not ideal aggression when you’re down two with Santander coming up,” Hyde said. “I kind of understand -- from my angle -- he hits the base, turns, finds the ball. That’s proper baserunning. He sees a high throw. He sees space between the first cut and Bell, and decided to go for it. I’m sure he would like to have stayed at third now looking back, but I kind of understood it at the time. But not an ideal spot.”

Said Hays: “I saw the ball go over the cutoff guy’s head, and initially I did not see Bell. It looked like it was rolling to the infield, and that was my initial read, so I took off to score thinking it was a loose ball. I was about halfway down the line when I saw Bell field it and I realized it was a bad read at that point.”

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-bats-quiet-in-loss-to-nationals

[JimGinSP]

On 5/15/2021 at 9:27 AM, Frobby said:

Game 38, May 14

Later in the inning, the O’s had runners on 1st and 2nd and Hays tried to score from 1B on a single one-hopper off the RF wall and was out by about 10 feet to end the inning.   The play wasn’t close and it was a terrible send by the 3B coach in my opinion.    
 

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

From Joe Trezza:

Compounding their offensive struggles was a self-inflicted wound on the basepaths, when Hays was thrown out trying to score on Mancini’s sixth-inning double into the right-field corner.

Running from first, Hays initially adhered to third-base coach Tony Masolino’s stop sign, after Juan Soto fielded the ball. Had his relay throw arrived cleanly, the Orioles would’ve had a second-and-third, one-out situation with cleanup hitter Santander coming to the plate, plus the platoon advantage against Strasburg. But then, wildness.

When Soto overthrew cutoff man Josh Harrison, Hays broke for home. He quickly regretted it, because first baseman Josh Bell was backing up the play. Bell corralled Soto’s throw and threw Hays out at the plate. Santander then struck out to end the inning, and the Orioles did not score.

“It’s not ideal aggression when you’re down two with Santander coming up,” Hyde said. “I kind of understand -- from my angle -- he hits the base, turns, finds the ball. That’s proper baserunning. He sees a high throw. He sees space between the first cut and Bell, and decided to go for it. I’m sure he would like to have stayed at third now looking back, but I kind of understood it at the time. But not an ideal spot.”

Said Hays: “I saw the ball go over the cutoff guy’s head, and initially I did not see Bell. It looked like it was rolling to the infield, and that was my initial read, so I took off to score thinking it was a loose ball. I was about halfway down the line when I saw Bell field it and I realized it was a bad read at that point.”

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-bats-quiet-in-loss-to-nationals

“Bad read” = Dead duck”  Twice in 8 days.

My question here would be did Masolino switch up and say “go go go” upon seeing Soto overthrow the cutoff man?   When Hays was told to stop, he did actually slow down and hesitate, shouldn’t it have become Masolino’s decision, not Hays’ to revise course?   Hyde needs to be having a talk with one of the two and it needs not include the “I kind of understand” narrative fed to the press.

[glenn__davis]

July 16

Trailing 9-2 in the 9th with 2 outs, Santander inexplicably tries to go first to third on a single and is thrown out. Of course it was going to be a loss anyway but that just can't happen.