2022 early look top prospects

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, first of all, there isn’t a player that they can pick at 1 where they have to pay full slot.

Secondly, in the Adley draft, they paid him close to slot and still ended up with Henderson and Stowers.  So obviously you can pay close to all the money with the first pick and still get very good talent later.  
 

The Os should care about those first 4-6 picks.  After that, whatever.

That is the advantage of #1 overall.  The amount over slot for Adley+Henderson was less than 300k and then it was exactly slot for Stowers and Watson and then underslot for a lot of the next several picks presumably to make sure to stay under the overall pool total for the top 10 rounds to avoid penalties / taxes.  No resources available to for shots on high school talent that are tought signs like Mayo / Baulmer a year later to buy them out of college commitments, etc..

[Sports Guy]

Just now, geschinger said:

That is the advantage of #1 overall.  The amount over slot for Adley+Henderson was less than 300k and then it was exactly slot for Stowers and Watson and then underslot for a lot of the next several picks presumably to make sure to stay under the overall pool total for the top 10 rounds to avoid penalties / taxes.  No resources available to for shots on high school talent that are tought signs like Mayo / Baulmer a year later to buy them out of college commitments, etc..

Well that’s wrong.  First of all, the team could have gone over their draft pool by 4.9%, so it’s just wrong to say there is no extra money.

Secondly, what you just showed is that you don’t need to have the extra money later to have a good draft…they also ended up with Handley in that draft and he’s the likely back up C at some point next year.

Lastly, you could have completely punted on a few picks, like Pitt did last year and found the money by doing that.

In other words, this is almost like the NFL salary cap..while it exists, it’s easy to play with the numbers to get things in your favor.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well that’s wrong.  First of all, the team could have gone over their draft pool by 4.9%, so it’s just wrong to say there is no extra money.

Secondly, what you just showed is that you don’t need to have the extra money later to have a good draft…they also ended up with Handley in that draft and he’s the likely back up C at some point next year.

Lastly, you could have completely punted on a few picks, like Pitt did last year and found the money by doing that.

In other words, this is almost like the NFL salary cap..while it exists, it’s easy to play with the numbers to get things in your favor.

I'm as high on Handley as anyone and even I wouldn't go so far as to say he's the likely backup catcher at any point next season.

I'd do it, but I'm super aggressive.  His OPS at AA this season is higher than it was in college.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm as high on Handley as anyone and even I wouldn't go so far as to say he's the likely backup catcher at any point next season.

I'd do it, but I'm super aggressive.  His OPS at AA this season is higher than it was in college.

Well he is doing well in AA.  I would guess if he keeps it up that he’s in AAA this year.  That puts him On track for a potential promotion to the majors next year.

From the sounds of things, his defense is already there.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well he is doing well in AA.  I would guess if he keeps it up that he’s in AAA this year.  That puts him On track for a potential promotion to the majors next year.

From the sounds of things, his defense is already there.

I'm down with potential, it's likely that I had a problem with.

If the bump in offense is sustainable he's going to be exactly the sort of guy you want backing up AR.

[Sports Guy]

Btw, that 2019 draft was something else when you think about it.  Sure, we need to see how these guys look in the majors but we could have 4 guys, including 3 starters, from that draft on the team this year (well Handley wouldn’t be until next year).  Considering the year off from COVID, that’s really good.

A few others potential guys too.

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, that 2019 draft was something else when you think about it.  Sure, we need to see how these guys look in the majors but we could have 4 guys, including 3 starters, from that draft on the team this year (well Handley wouldn’t be until next year).  Considering the year off from COVID, that’s really good.

A few others potential guys too.

Could be like Elias’ 2015 draft for the Astros where he got Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Myles Straw, Patrick Sandoval and six other players who’ve played in the majors.   Straw is interesting, a drastic underslot 4th rounder who got paid $100 k and yet has panned out for 5.3 rWAR so far.   On the their hand, the Astros paid $4 mm to 1s Daz Cameron, who has made it to the majors but hasn’t produced so far.   Just goes to show, you never know.   

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Could be like Elias’ 2015 draft for the Astros where he got Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Myles Straw, Patrick Sandoval and six other players who’ve played in the majors.   Straw is interesting, a drastic underslot 4th rounder who got paid $100 k and yet has panned out for 5.3 rWAR so far.   On the their hand, the Astros paid $4 mm to 1s Daz Cameron, who has made it to the majors but hasn’t produced so far.   Just goes to show, you never know.   

But he was the main piece to get Verlander.  All that matters is that he provided value to the team in some way and he definitely did that.

[LookinUp]

20 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well the Orioles are also past the “need talent stage”. They have the best farm system.  They need difference making talent.

Swing for the fences with the first pick.

I think it's worth articulating why what SG is saying here could be the right strategy in general, even though I'm not always on board.

The difference between Colton Cowser and a player like Druw Jones is a perfect example to think about. Cowser likely has a high probability of some success, and a pretty good probability of being a Markakis like player. We'd all take that. 

Druw Jones probably has a much wider range of probabilities just because there's less data. He comes with more risk, but his overall projection of value might be similar to Cowser.

The difference is if they really hit with Druw Jones, you might end up with a 100 WAR player for all we know. The upside is great CF who hits great.

That upside is worth extra $ now, IMO. It's why I don't want to draft a 2B or a SS that reminds me of JJ Hardy (probably not fair).

So while I do get both sides, at #1 overall in particular, I'm actually on board with the probability + upside strategy. Jones or Holliday for me.

[joelala]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Could be like Elias’ 2015 draft for the Astros where he got Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Myles Straw, Patrick Sandoval and six other players who’ve played in the majors.   Straw is interesting, a drastic underslot 4th rounder who got paid $100 k and yet has panned out for 5.3 rWAR so far.   On the their hand, the Astros paid $4 mm to 1s Daz Cameron, who has made it to the majors but hasn’t produced so far.   Just goes to show, you never know.   

How did they have the 2nd pick and the 5th pick that year? Wow I didn’t realize that. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think it's worth articulating why what SG is saying here could be the right strategy in general, even though I'm not always on board.

The difference between Colton Cowser and a player like Druw Jones is a perfect example to think about. Cowser likely has a high probability of some success, and a pretty good probability of being a Markakis like player. We'd all take that. 

Druw Jones probably has a much wider range of probabilities just because there's less data. He comes with more risk, but his overall projection of value might be similar to Cowser.

The difference is if they really hit with Druw Jones, you might end up with a 100 WAR player for all we know. The upside is great CF who hits great.

That upside is worth extra $ now, IMO. It's why I don't want to draft a 2B or a SS that reminds me of JJ Hardy (probably not fair).

So while I do get both sides, at #1 overall in particular, I'm actually on board with the probability + upside strategy. Jones or Holliday for me.

I totally understand the argument.  I’m just not really in a position to evaluate who has the best average expected outcome and who has the best upside, or how wide the gaps between one guy and the next are by either measure.   

What I like about Jones is he has a nice combo of high ceiling and high floor.  His defense would probably carry him to the majors even if he didn’t hit much, and yet he could be his dad or better with the bat.  That’s a real nice combo.  
 

[RZNJ]

48 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think it's worth articulating why what SG is saying here could be the right strategy in general, even though I'm not always on board.

The difference between Colton Cowser and a player like Druw Jones is a perfect example to think about. Cowser likely has a high probability of some success, and a pretty good probability of being a Markakis like player. We'd all take that. 

Druw Jones probably has a much wider range of probabilities just because there's less data. He comes with more risk, but his overall projection of value might be similar to Cowser.

The difference is if they really hit with Druw Jones, you might end up with a 100 WAR player for all we know. The upside is great CF who hits great.

That upside is worth extra $ now, IMO. It's why I don't want to draft a 2B or a SS that reminds me of JJ Hardy (probably not fair).

So while I do get both sides, at #1 overall in particular, I'm actually on board with the probability + upside strategy. Jones or Holliday for me.

Druw could be a superstar.  None of the publications have him rated as a franchise type player though.  He's rated as an annual all-star type of player.     Joey Votto was a franchise player, wasn't he?    If you draft enough solid players, some of them will overachieve.    I don't think there's a ton of risk with Druw Jones so I'm on board with him.   I'm not in the same boat that says we HAVE to draft the highest upside possible in this draft.  Get someone who's a good bet to be a very good player.   Jones is that but he's not the only one.

[Can_of_corn]

48 minutes ago, joelala said:

How did they have the 2nd pick and the 5th pick that year? Wow I didn’t realize that. 

Aiken was taken 1-1 the draft before and didn't sign.

[OriolesMagic83]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

I totally understand the argument.  I’m just not really in a position to evaluate who has the best average expected outcome and who has the best upside, or how wide the gaps between one guy and the next are by either measure.   

What I like about Jones is he has a nice combo of high ceiling and high floor.  His defense would probably carry him to the majors even if he didn’t hit much, and yet he could be his dad or better with the bat.  That’s a real nice combo.  
 

It seems to me that Jones' floor is someone like Keirmaier.  Someone who could be worth 2-3 WAR almost all from his glove.  Still a valuable player.  Upside is a perennial All-Star.  As someone mentioned, all the middle infield players sound like J.J. Hardy to me.  Hardy was a nice player for many years, but do you want to spend your last #1 pick for 10+ years (hopefully) on Hardy. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

It seems to me that Jones' floor is someone like Keirmaier.  Someone who could be worth 2-3 WAR almost all from his glove.  Still a valuable player.  Upside is a perennial All-Star.  As someone mentioned, all the middle infield players sound like J.J. Hardy to me.  Hardy was a nice player for many years, but do you want to spend your last #1 pick for 10+ years (hopefully) on Hardy. 

I find your analogy bizarre.  Kiermaier and Hardy are extremely similar players. The former has been worth 31.5 rWAR while being an average offensive CF (98 sOPS+); the latter has been 28.1 rWAR while being an average offensive SS (101 sOPS+).   On the one hand, only 18 of the 56 1:1 players have turned out to have as good a career as Hardy’s, so we should be very happy if our pick turns out that well.   But I don’t think any of the top candidates profile as looking like Hardy if they approach their ceiling.   They all have the potential to be much better than Hardy offensively.   I don’t know that any of them are likely to be as good defensively.  They certainly have ceilings higher than 28 rWAR.