I'm starting to think we are 4-5 years away from competing for real

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I mean his career BABIP is 319.

The various projections on Fangraphs have him at 294-313.

So maybe less than 362?

So he'll be worth 4.5 wins going forward instead of 4.7?

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

What kind of extension do you think they should look to sign D.L. Hall for?

Not one clue. I don't have the information available to make smart decisions about that. 

But even though I'm not the one to make those decisions, I do believe the O's should be considering possibilities and I think they will. May not work out, but I hope they're at least checking.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Not one clue. I don't have the information available to make smart decisions about that. 

But even though I'm not the one to make those decisions, I do believe the O's should be considering possibilities and I think they will. May not work out, but I hope they're at least checking.

Well you seem to acknowledge that the O's will do their due diligence at the least, and then you want to criticize them just in case they're not doing their doing the diligence?

Seems odd.

BTW, Hall has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow.  Perhaps it's things like this that suppress contract extensions for MiL prospects?

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I mean his career BABIP is 319.

The various projections on Fangraphs have him at 294-313.

So maybe less than 362?

His xBA is .282.   That’s not just based on normalizing BABIP, but based on quality of contact.   

His xwOBA is .351 compared to wOBA of .394.

I do think that speed probably accounts for a bit of the difference, but certainly not all of it.   

Still, if you told me Mullins would have a .351 wOBA for the next four years, I’d sign for it in blood.   Even taking any luck away, he’s been very good.   

 

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Well you seem to acknowledge that the O's will do their due diligence at the least, and then you want to criticize them just in case they're not doing their doing the diligence?

Seems odd.

BTW, Hall has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow.  Perhaps it's things like this that suppress contract extensions for MiL prospects?

How on earth do you get "I want to criticize them" out of this?

The only point to the whole discussion was that it wasn't unreasonable to discuss an extension with someone in the minor leagues.

You've twisted about as far as possible to create an argument out of this. You go have fun with it. 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

How on earth do you get "I want to criticize them" out of this?

The only point to the whole discussion was that it wasn't unreasonable to discuss an extension with someone in the minor leagues.

You've twisted about as far as possible to create an argument out of this. You go have fun with it. 

How could I be arguing with you when you refuse to take a position?  LOL.

Your point seems to be they should "consider" these extensions.  Again, that is so nebulous as to mean nothing.

How do you know they haven't?

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

His xBA is .282.   That’s not just based on normalizing BABIP, but based on quality of contact.   

His xwOBA is .351 compared to wOBA of .394.

I do think that speed probably accounts for a bit of the difference, but certainly not all of it.   

Still, if you told me Mullins would have a .351 wOBA for the next four years, I’d sign for it in blood.   Even taking any luck away, he’s been very good.   

 

Yeah, I don't expect Mullins to hit .320 every year from here on out.  But that isn't going to be largely a product of his BABIP.

If he's hitting .280, he's still an all-star.

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

How could I be arguing with you when you refuse to take a position?  LOL.

Your point seems to be they should "consider" these extensions.  Again, that is so nebulous as to mean nothing.

How do you know they haven't?

I don't. You started this by saying they never would.

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I don't. You started this by saying they never would.

Well, I gave reasons for it.  It's been done.  Including by this FO.  It hasn't worked out yet.  It's risky.  It doesn't seem to do the club much in terms of saving money.

I believe they have considered it, and have rejected it, because it doesn't make sense- which is exactly why nobody else does it either.

[SteveA]

48 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well you seem to acknowledge that the O's will do their due diligence at the least, and then you want to criticize them just in case they're not doing their doing the diligence?

Seems odd.

BTW, Hall has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow.  Perhaps it's things like this that suppress contract extensions for MiL prospects?

I think they have walked that back a bit and called it a "stress reaction".  Message board doctors please let us know the difference.

But I think his minor league season is kaput.  Fall ball might not be out of the picture.

[Pickles]

27 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I think they have walked that back a bit and called it a "stress reaction".  Message board doctors please let us know the difference.

But I think his minor league season is kaput.  Fall ball might not be out of the picture.

I'm sorry to hear about it.  Regardless, it isn't a positive development for him.

My point of course isn't specifically about him.  However, with the CBA such as it is, and, maybe even more importantly, with how it remains unresolved going forward, it makes little sense to sign MiLers to extensions.

[crowmst3k!]

On 7/30/2021 at 9:22 PM, Pickles said:

BTW, Hall has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow.  Perhaps it's things like this that suppress contract extensions for MiL prospects?

Especially for pitchers.  

A position player would be way less of a risk. Pitchers break all the time. 

[ChosenOne21]

On 7/30/2021 at 10:12 PM, SteveA said:

I think they have walked that back a bit and called it a "stress reaction".  Message board doctors please let us know the difference.

But I think his minor league season is kaput.  Fall ball might not be out of the picture.

A stress reaction is sort of the precursor to a stress fracture. Still needs to be shut down to let it heal, but it's not as bad as if he broke the bone

[Ruzious]

On 7/30/2021 at 8:51 PM, Can_of_corn said:

He's got a 362 BABIP.

If he's for real he's soon to be out of the probable price range of the team.

If you could get a team to pay you have to look at it.

 

 

If that's true, the O's probably shouldn't be in the professional baseball business.  

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

A stress reaction is sort of the precursor to a stress fracture. Still needs to be shut down to let it heal, but it's not as bad as if he broke the bone

Well this is terrible news. Grow the bats. Buy the arms. But can we even keep Hays and Santander healthy?