I’m about ready to give up on DJ Stewart

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, owknows said:

Is it possible for a successful team to have a fringe player from time to time?

Sure. Particularly if those players are younger, having an uncharacteristically bad year, and don't get hit in the head by fly balls.

Maybe we could just agree that teams that seek fringe players as a rule, become unsuccessful teams.

 

 

I don't think anyone is seeking out Stewart.  He's on the 40 and right now there is no reason to drop him.  When they have a reason I'm sure they will.

But you can absolutely be a winning team with a guy like Stewart on your roster. 

I went back exactly one year and just looked at the team with the best record and I found defensively challenged left fielder that hit left handed  and put up a replacement level season.

The 1993 Texas Rangers even won 86 games with an outfielder that got hit in the head with the ball and put up a .1 rWAR season.

[owknows]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

 

 

I don't think anyone is seeking out Stewart. 

Yes. That would indicate to me, that he's not a successful player. That's the point.

 

[spiritof66]

36 minutes ago, owknows said:

The question on the table is whether Stewart is a successful player.

Successful teams are built of successful players.

Successful teams are not built of 0.8 fWAR (0.5 rWAR) outfielders who get hit in the head by fly balls.

 

I don't care whether D.J. Stewart is a "successful" ballplayer, and I don't know, or care, what "successful" means in that context. I care only whether, given the resource constraints this team faces right now, and what it hopes to achieve this season -- and I have some idea of what those are, but don't really know -- the Orioles should keep Stewart on the roster or make a move to upgrade Stewart's spot for this season. I think he probably should go, but see him a borderline case: sometimes he really looks good at the plate and about to break out, but it just hasn't happened. (There's a sort of opposite effect with D.J. in the outfield: he's not good, but at times he looks even more clueless out there than I think he is.) Anyway, that's the question as far as I'm concerned.)

My own guess is that it would be better and cheaper to upgrade, before or during this season if there is one, Stewart's roster spot than some others, and that the Orioles should be looking to do that. But maybe that upgrade will be more difficult than I see it.

Sure, you can win 100+ games with a below-1.0 WAR guy holding down a semi-regular spot, like the Giants did last year with Alex Dickerson getting just over 300 PAs. Sometimes having a guy like that is not a bad thing at all: young guys with lots of potential often struggle for a season or so, and playing a guy like that when there's no terrific alternative can be a good investment in the team's future. But you're not likely to contend with three or four Alex Dickersons in the lineup, and if you're going to win with even one out there you better have at least two or three Cedric Mullins (2021 version) types and a real good pitching staff. The Giants had both. It also helps to have a couple of weak teams in the division to feast on: the Giants were a combined 32-6 against the Snakes and the Rox last year. To get some of that leverage in the near future, the Orioles would have to count some intrasquad games. 

You build a winning team by finding and seizing on opportunities to upgrade the personnel, whether it's by promoting from your own system or obtaining talent from outside. I think the Orioles can do better than D.J. Stewart.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, owknows said:

Is it possible for a successful team to have a fringe player from time to time?

Sure. Particularly if those players are younger, having an uncharacteristically bad year, and don't get hit in the head by fly balls.

Maybe we could just agree that teams that seek fringe players as a rule, become unsuccessful teams.

I'd go further and challenge anyone to find a major league team in all of history going back to 1876/71 that didn't have a fringe player.  The 1906 Cubs come close, they barely gave any playing time to anyone who didn't at least have a passable career.  But besides that...  the '27 Yanks had Cedric Durst and Ray Morehart and Joe Giard.  Basically every team has fringe players.

[interloper]

One thing I'll say about DJ Stewart, he sure lives rent free in a lot of heads around here. Maybe he'll be a good DH this year, as the lefty complement that can rest Mancini and Mountcastle. He won't see LF much, that's for damn sure. He might see RF though if Santander is injured and Stowers isn't ready...

[Tony-OH]

On 1/21/2022 at 4:08 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

On a team in 2022 with 13 pitchers, how useful can a guy be who has a 115 OPS+ and no other positive attributes?  Remembering that we're wishing and hoping for that 115, since his career mark is 97.  I guess he could turn into Jim Dwyer.

Also, projecting 31 games (out of 60) to a full season is stretching things more than a bit. I could probably find a 30-game stretch where John Stefero and Luis Mercedes looked pretty good.

(Not to besmirch the name of Jim Dwyer, but if you shifted his career 10 years later everyone would look at the progression and say oh yea, he got some help.)

(Realizing that 3/4ths of the board is too young to remember who Jim Dwyer is.)

It's funny you mentioned Dwyer because to me, Dwyer is Stewart's upside and unfortunately, the Jim Dwyer-type role has really gone away due to the large pitching staffs now carried by ball clubs.

[Tony-OH]

On 1/22/2022 at 8:34 AM, Frobby said:

Just curious about why his baserunning disappoints you.  BB-ref has him as neutral.   

D\Jj's sprint speed percentile has gone like this since his debut:

2018: 63 percentile
2019: 53 percentile
2020: 34 percentile
2021: 43 percentile

He's not a clog by any definition, but not surprisingly with his body shape, he's gotten much slower as he's aged.

 

[connja]

Here comes a wild prediction from "out of left field*" 

Yusniel Diaz is going to have a big spring, and end up making the opening day roster over DJ.

*Interesting story I came across that notes the saying "out of left field" came from Chicago, where a mental hospital stood behind the left field stands at West Side Grounds, their home field before they moved to Wrigley.

Full Story here:

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/3/17/17130652/chicago-cubs-history-way-out-in-left-field

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 minutes ago, connja said:

Here comes a wild prediction from "out of left field*" 

Yusniel Diaz is going to have a big spring, and end up making the opening day roster over DJ.

 

That would be a little odd from a roster construction standpoint as DJ fits in pretty nicely right now as a LH COF/DH/1B type with Mancini and Mountcastle both hitting from the right side of the plate.

[connja]

20 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

That would be a little odd from a roster construction standpoint as DJ fits in pretty nicely right now as a LH COF/DH/1B type with Mancini and Mountcastle both hitting from the right side of the plate.

Don't disagree but if he has a good spring it will behoove them to find out what they have sooner rather than later.  If he doesn't have a good spring might just be time to cut bait.