I’m about ready to give up on DJ Stewart

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, If we accept that at the moment we are just discussing semantics, I’ll respond:

I don’t think he’s a successful baseball player. Why do you think he is?

I think he was the 25th overall pick, I guess whether he was a successful draft pick would depend on what one expects from the 25th pick based on all the 25th picks, and where he did relative to the group. I don’t know, although you shared that information I think, But I will reiterate that being among the best of a bad group doesn’t really make one good.

He’s 20th of all 57 players drafted no. 25.   Some of the more recent picks may pass him, we’ll see.    Some will, some won’t is my guess just based on the history.   

If I have to explain why I think he’s a successful baseball player, you haven’t been paying attention to anything I’ve said.  Or Drungo.  
 

[Philip]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s 20th of all 57 players drafted no. 25.   Some of the more recent picks may pass him, we’ll see.    Some will, some won’t is my guess just based on the history.   

If I have to explain why I think he’s a successful baseball player, you haven’t been paying attention to anything I’ve said.  Or Drungo.  
 

Of course I have been, but that doesn’t negate anything I’ve said. This site is playing havoc with both my iPhone and my iPad, so it’s difficult to respond, but I’ll reiterate that just making MLB is an accomplishment but that doesn’t define a successful player.. just making MLB is only another step on the ladder of success.

In a previous comment you asked if I considered myself a successful musician. I’ve played with lots of famous people, and I’ve managed to make a reasonable living playing , but no I don’t consider myself a success. A tenured Dallas Symphony member is a success. A tenured major university music professor is a success. I consider myself a journeyman, and there’s no self-deprecation in that comment. I’ve made a reasonable living, drive a ten year old Mercedes, and own my home. I am happy, and I pay my bills, and can retire when the time comes and not go on the Dole. I can NOT buy a ticket to fly to the moon. Oh well. There’s nothing wrong with being a journeyman. My brother is a lawyer who owns his own modest law office building, but my wife doesn’t consider him a success. She calls him “reasonable.” The success is the family friend who is also a lawyer, owns his own twelve-story building near downtown Dallas that houses his large practice in patent law, and pulls in multiple millions every year.

DJ was drafted based on his potential. He hasn’t lived up to his potential. That’s not a success. As @Pickles pointed out, he wasn’t drafted and developed to become a replacement level player. So no, he’s not a success. I don’t see how you can him a success, but you’re welcome to do so if you wish. I choose not to, and I’ve explained why. 

[forphase1]

Put me on the side he isn't a success, and part of that determination is based on expectation.  An undrafted free agent with his results would be a success.   A 1st round draft pick,  as he is,  I expect more out of to be successful.  Now the book on him isn't fully written,  so that could change,  but at this point I would not consider him successful. 

[Moose Milligan]

8 hours ago, Philip said:

Success is getting to the major leagues and being productive. Just showing up for a game or two I can’t be called success. It can only be called another step in the process. Because it is not the end goal it is a step to that end goal. Replacement players Have accomplished the goal of making it to the big leagues, but they can’t be called successes. Success has to mean something more than that.

 

[MCO'sFan]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just curious about why his baserunning disappoints you.  BB-ref has him as neutral.   

Well, I’m not sure what goes into that but I guess I could look it up if I wanted. I would say even neutral isn’t good enough for a reserve on a short bench. I only have my recollections to base my opinion on and his base running errors really stand out to me. Perhaps I am bias as I have given up on him and his mistakes stand out more than the normal player. 

[Jammer7]

The strong case has been laid out that DJ is an above average #25 pick in the draft. It’s difficult to argue that he isn’t. That was not the point for me, personally. Is he an above replacement-level major league player? And will he bring any value to the Orioles roster? Those are the questions I have. 

I believe he works hard and has a good attitude, but it is painful for me to watch him in the OF. He has shown he will not hit quality pitching. He is not a prospect any longer, being 28 years of age. In his four MLB seasons, he has accumulated .8 WAR per Fangraphs. He’s more or less a replacement level player, offensively. He is well below that defensively. He has no value as a bench player for me because of his poor defense. He has 26 home runs in 524 MLB at bats. And in fairness, he does not often get regular play. Some of that has been injuries, some because he was struggling badly. I believe that if he was a RH bat, he would have been released already. On a team that is heavy with RH bats, he is clinging to a roster spot until a better LH hitter is available.

I have led the charge to release him the past several months. After stepping back and looking at it, I still think he should go. But if the team wants to bring him back for one last shot, so be it. I think Neustrom would have been a better player to keep, but they do know better than me. I guess we’ll see.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

In his four MLB seasons, he has accumulated .8 WAR per Fangraphs. He’s more or less a replacement level player, offensively. He is well below that defensively. 

Just a technical point here, not confined to Stewart.   To my understanding, the term “replacement level” refers to the overall player, and you can’t isolate “replacement level” offense or defense because the better the offense, the worse the defense can be before you’d replace that player, and vice versa.   

With that said, 0.8 fWAR (0.5 rWAR) in 192 games, 618 PA is not replacement level, it’s above replacement level.   It’s not starting OF level.   

I think we all understand that “replacement level” is a hypothetical construct, and actual decisions about when to replace a player depend on the alternatives available.   I certainly think that if Stowers plays well in AAA for a month or two, he could push Stewart off the roster.   I’ve already said I think Stowers has a 60% chance of being a better hitter than Stewart, and certainly he’ll be a better defender.   So if the only calculus is Stowers vs. Stewart, Stewart’s days could be numbered.   But there are also some other factors — do Santander and Hays stay healthy, does McKenna improve at the plate, is Mancini traded, etc.   I also think Stewart will have to hit significantly better than he did in 2021 to keep his job.   It remains to be seen if he will.   

 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 1/22/2022 at 11:11 AM, Philip said:

I don’t think he’s a successful baseball player. Why do you think he is?

At this point we're probably not changing any opinions, but I find it difficult to say someone was unsuccessful when they've been very good or even excellent at every level except the very, very highest in the world.  By your definitions the vast majority of people in the world are not successful, and I prefer to not look at things that pessimistically.

[Can_of_corn]

55 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At this point we're probably not changing any opinions, but I find it difficult to say someone was unsuccessful when they've been very good or even excellent at every level except the very, very highest in the world.  By your definitions the vast majority of people in the world are not successful, and I prefer to not look at things that pessimistically.

Sure you made the Olympics, but did you medal?

[Philip]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At this point we're probably not changing any opinions, but I find it difficult to say someone was unsuccessful when they've been very good or even excellent at every level except the very, very highest in the world.  By your definitions the vast majority of people in the world are not successful, and I prefer to not look at things that pessimistically.

As I told Frobby, I think we might be just arguing semantics, but the whole point of doing very well in high school and college and minor leagues is so we can do very well in the major leagues. It Is not a success to succeed everywhere except at the highest level, because everything prior to that is merely preparation. The entire gauge of success is being successful at the highest level. That’s why I don’t consider myself a master musician. I’m just a journeyman, and that’s OK.

It’s not pessimism at all, it’s just acknowledging that we didn’t get where we expected/hoped/wanted to be, even if where we ended up is OK.

[owknows]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just a technical point here, not confined to Stewart.   To my understanding, the term “replacement level” refers to the overall player, and you can’t isolate “replacement level” offense or defense because the better the offense, the worse the defense can be before you’d replace that player, and vice versa.   

With that said, 0.8 fWAR (0.5 rWAR) in 192 games, 618 PA is not replacement level, it’s above replacement level.   It’s not starting OF level.   

 

The question on the table is whether Stewart is a successful player.

Successful teams are built of successful players.

Successful teams are not built of 0.8 fWAR (0.5 rWAR) outfielders who get hit in the head by fly balls.

 

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, owknows said:

The question on the table is whether Stewart is a successful player.

Successful teams are built of successful players.

Successful teams are not built of 0.8 fWAR (0.5 rWAR) outfielders who get hit in the head by fly balls.

 

Honestly, successful teams can have guys like Stewart on the roster. 

The Giants won 107 games last year with Alex Dickerson putting up a -.1 rWAR in Left Field.  Left handed year 31 old LF/PH with a 95 OPS+.

From BA:

Quote

He's a below-average runner with substandard range and a fringy arm in left field.

 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, owknows said:

The question on the table is whether Stewart is a successful player.

Successful teams are built of successful players.

Successful teams are not built of 0.8 fWAR (0.5 rWAR) outfielders who get hit in the head by fly balls.

 

You are mixing two different discussions.  I already said I didn’t consider Stewart to be a successful major league player (at least not yet, and maybe not ever).   I do consider him to be a successful baseball player, because making it to the majors and getting into 192 games and having a positive WAR in that span is an incredible achievement.  

Anyway, I’m about done with this discussion.   I’m not sure if this has become an argument about semantics, or about one’s outlook on life.   Either way it doesn’t matter.   It won’t change the factors that will determine if Stewart stays on the major league roster or stays in MLB generally.   
 

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Honestly, successful teams can have guys like Stewart on the roster. 

The Giants won 107 games last year with Alex Dickerson putting up a -.1 rWAR in Left Field.  Left handed year 31 old LF/PH with a 95 OPS+.

From BA:

 

Is it possible for a successful team to have a fringe player from time to time?

Sure. Particularly if those players are younger, having an uncharacteristically bad year, and don't get hit in the head by fly balls.

Maybe we could just agree that teams that seek fringe players as a rule, become unsuccessful teams.

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You are mixing two different discussions.  I already said I didn’t consider Stewart to be a successful major league player (at least not yet, and maybe not ever).   I do consider him to be a successful baseball player, because making it to the majors and getting into 192 games and having a positive WAR in that span is an incredible achievement.  

Anyway, I’m about done with this discussion.   I’m not sure if this has become an argument about semantics, or about one’s outlook on life.   Either way it doesn’t matter.   It won’t change the factors that will determine if Stewart stays on the major league roster or stays in MLB generally.   
 

I know most would consider just sniffing the rarefied air that is MLB to be an indicator of success in the lives...

But objectively, it's a team sport... requiring a contribution to the success of the team to be considered a success once you make your way over the fence.

Contributing to the meager success of the Orioles for the last few years has been a pretty low bar... And I'm not sure he cleared it.

But you're right.... these are semantic and subjective distinctions