2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Collier would be a typical awful Elias pick, Berry too. Elias should not take anyone outside of Jones, Holiday, Lee, Green & Parrada. Period. 

Ha. I bet most think Parada would be an awful pick.  Were  Westburg, Stowers, and Henderson typical awful Elias picks as well?

[Sports Guy]

And btw, saving the money isn’t necessary with the second highest draft pool ever and you can spend over your allotted amount anyway.  
 

It’s a made up number and you can do whatever you want if you choose.

[OriolesMagic83]

13 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Collier would be a typical awful Elias pick, Berry too. Elias should not take anyone outside of Jones, Holiday, Lee, Green & Parrada. Period. 

As much as I haven't liked some of Elias' picks, I don't see him picking a defensively limited player with the 1st pick.  If he does, I'll give him the abuse he deserves.  DJ Stewart wasn't an Elias pick.  Picking Berry first would be like picking Stewart in the top 10.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ha. I bet most think Parada would be an awful pick.  Were  Westburg, Stowers, and Henderson typical awful Elias picks as well?

First round. Overall I think he does a good job honestly. But first round approach is questionable. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

22 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

As much as I haven't liked some of Elias' picks, I don't see him picking a defensively limited player with the 1st pick.  If he does, I'll give him the abuse he deserves.  DJ Stewart wasn't an Elias pick.  Picking Berry first would be like picking Stewart in the top 10.

Berry def profiling bc much higher than Stewart lol but agree completely. Parrada is supposed to be an elite bat. Limited position. Rizzo of the Nationals likes him, he does a great job so trust his judgment. 
 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Nice article on Green. I’d be happy with him too. Jones/Holiday/Green all have a pedigree, that matters. Doesn’t mean greatness but better odds imo.https://twitter.com/feinsand/status/1537883142320623616?s=21&t=PddcUm9_99AmOPfbHg73TA

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

First round. Overall I think he does a good job honestly. But first round approach is questionable. 

So, Cowser and Kjerstad are the typical awful Elias pics.  And remember, passing on your guy Austin Martin, helped get us Mayo and Baumler.   So, good pick is Austin Martin and typical 4th and 5th round picks.  Awful pic is Kjerstad, Mayo, and Baumler. Got it. Thanks.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So, Cowser and Kjerstad are the typical awful Elias pics.  And remember, passing on your guy Austin Martin, helped get us Mayo and Baumler.   So, good pick is Austin Martin and typical 4th and 5th round picks.  Awful pic is Kjerstad, Mayo, and Baumler. Got it. Thanks.

I love how you distort my opinion lol. 

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I love how you distort my opinion lol. 

First you said Elias made typically awful picks. Then you said you only meant the first round were typically awful. He's only had 3 drafts.  I'm assuming you didn't think Adley was a typically awful pick. That leaves Kjerstad and Cowser. I'm assuming you thought they were the typically awful picks?   If I'm wrong, please clear it up for me.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Collier would be a typical awful Elias pick, Berry too. Elias should not take anyone outside of Jones, Holiday, Lee, Green & Parrada. Period. 

I am curious, what do you know about the relative merits of Collier vs. these other guys?    Law ranks him no. 2.   Why do you think he’s outside the top 5?

I want to be clear: I don’t know anything about any of these guys other than what I read from various pundits, one of whom is Law.    I happen to like Eric Longenhagen best among the pundits, mostly because he explains his opinions more thoroughly than the others.   But that doesn’t mean his opinions are right.   Law seems like an outlier on Collier, and I don’t particularly like his online personality, but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong about Collier being the second best prospect in the class.  

Also, why is Termarr Johnson excluded from your list?  He’s listed near the top of many lists.   Is there something you don’t like about him?
 

[Sports Guy]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

From a Keith Law chat yesterday:

“It's a complex question. If Druw Jones wants $9 million, and I can get Collier or Holliday or Termarr for $5.5 million, why wouldn't I take one of those three guys and use the savings to land 2-3 more first-round talents with subsequent picks? But if Jones wants only $1 million more, or even less of a gap, and I believe he's the best player, I might just take him. It depends on what each player wants and what my scouts & analysts believe about the relative merits of the players.”

https://theathletic.com/3369442/2022/06/16/live-qa-keith-law-answers-your-mlb-draft-questions-2/

So, it’s not as simple as some believe it to be.

And btw, the Orioles went under slot last year and they didn’t exactly use the savings to land 2-3 extra first rounders.

The Pirates did that.  The Os didn’t.  Who is to say they won’t do the same thing?

There are just so many holes in this philosophy and really, there is nothing that backs it up as a smart decision, especially when you consider the money the team will still have, the idea they can spend more than the allotted money if they want (they aren’t spending it on anything else) and that they lost on purpose to have this opportunity..oh and Elias has said that this is a draft with special talent at the top.

Add all of it together and this strategy just makes no sense.

[RZNJ]

SG. I actually agree with your post. Having said that, it's perfectly reasonable to suggest that Elias sees Termarr Johnson as a special talent AND one he can sign for underslot.   

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And btw, the Orioles went under slot last year and they didn’t exactly use the savings to land 2-3 extra first rounders.

The Pirates did that.  The Os didn’t.  Who is to say they won’t do the same thing?

There are just so many holes in this philosophy and really, there is nothing that backs it up as a smart decision, especially when you consider the money the team will still have, the idea they can spend more than the allotted money if they want (they aren’t spending it on anything else) and that they lost on purpose to have this opportunity..oh and Elias has said that this is a draft with special talent at the top.

Add all of it together and this strategy just makes no sense.

I’m not particularly a fan of the underslot strategy.   But when you say “nothing that backs it up as a smart decision,” what you really mean is nothing that backs it up that you know about.  I know you took a look at this over a short period (and so did I).   But I’m sure MLB teams study this far more carefully and thoroughly than we do.   And I have no idea what their research shows.  

Also, when Elias says this is a draft with special talent at the top, he seems to mean that there are several really good players, so that he’s got several good options.   
 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not particularly a fan of the underslot strategy.   But when you say “nothing that backs it up as a smart decision,” what you really mean is nothing that backs it up that you know about.  I know you took a look at this over a short period (and so did I).   But I’m sure MLB teams study this far more carefully and thoroughly than we do.   And I have no idea what their research shows.  

Also, when Elias says this is a draft with special talent at the top, he seems to mean that there are several really good players, so that he’s got several good options.   
 

Frobby, there doesn’t need to be one piece of evidence shown that this strategy is extremely flawed.

We all know the draft is a complete crapshoot.  We all know that the draft rarely produces good players beyond the first round.  This isn’t something we need to see written down on paper.  We know it. 
 

So, when you have a strategy that is based around the idea that we take a lesser talent first (when elite talent is available) to obtain other talent later, even knowing it’s extremely unlikely that talent pans out, it’s a poor strategy.

Now, you want the evidence does show?  That the first overall pick is far more valuable than any other pick in the draft.  The history of the draft tells us that.  So, you don’t use that pick on an inferior player just to “save money for later” especially when the need to save money for later doesn’t exist anyway.  Its a made up concept. 
 

The Orioles should go BPa with the first 5 picks…cost shouldn’t matter.  You take the best 5 players you possibly can because you likely will not have another opportunity anytime soon to have the first pick and 5 of the top 75 overall.  There is no other strategy that makes sense, especially within the context of this team throwing seasons away.

Take Jones and give him 8.5M.  That’s the record. You save 300k under slot, he gets to be the first pick and is able to say he owns the record.  He isn’t turning that down.  He isn’t going back to college with those things in his pocket. Zippy chance.  

Then keep taking BPA and don’t worry about how much they cost.

[Can_of_corn]

If the draft was actually a complete crapshoot as some suggest an underslot strategy would make the most sense.

I don't think it is.