Orioles looking to trade Means?

[waroriole]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine…that’s why I said it depends on the prospect. I’m just saying the number doesn’t mean much.  As you allude to here, this ranking could be bs whereas a player like Gunnar Henderson could be undervalued.  (Just using him as an example)

I would deal Means for Henderson before Mauricio

I wouldn’t trade him for Gunnar either. Too much uncertainty with position and ability to hit LH. A lot of struggles at Aberdeen before eventually playing good but not great. I’d need a couple of prospects in that range, to offset the uncertainty from each. 

[Sports Guy]

We certainly shouldn’t be in the “quantity” business at this point.  We have quantity.  We need quality.  While I would like to also add a high upside, high risk/high reward type piece, the focus should be on the best, most ML ready prospect we can find.  

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, I don’t agree that Mullins’ skill set does not typically decline until the mid-30’s.    Speed starts declining from the early 20’s.  Already his sprint speed has declined from 29.4 ft/sec to 28.5 since 2018.   

On the other hand, Mullins will be 27, not 28, this upcoming season.   He’s got several prime years in front of him.  
 

 

I probably didn't state that clearly enough. What I meant was that speedy guys with some pop generally don't decline as quickly as those first baseman type skills. Usually the more athletic guys can maintain their game longer and then you start to see a bigger decline in the mid-30s vs the first baseman type that generally start to decline quickly in the early 30s. Again, I'm speaking in generalities here. 

By looking at statcast, an argument can be made that guys starts slowing up from about 23 years old speed wise.

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I already question just how good Mullins is in CF.  The question just grows in a few years and I don’t believe his arm, nor his bat, will be good enough for a CO spot in 2-3 years, not to mention the idea that we have all these COers that are hopefully part of the picture in the next 1-2 years.

If they were going to do the right thing and push to be a lot better in 2022 and really go after in 2023, I would be more inclined to keep Him but that’s not the case.

It really depend on the return. Elias has not proven yet that he can acquire impact level players that are ready or nearly ready. Grant it, he never had a Mullins or Means to a lesser extent available to trade, but his trading is still an unknown when it comes to acquiring closer players. Jahmai Jones and Tyler Nevin were guys that were close and nether look like they are part of a the future here and are both probably 40 level players.

I believe in Mullins more than you, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't move him in the right deal. But these deals cannot be for more lottery tickets, but for ready or nearly ready players.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It really depend on the return. Elias has not proven yet that he can acquire impact level players that are ready or nearly ready. Grant it, he never had a Mullins or Means to a lesser extent available to trade, but his trading is still an unknown when it comes to acquiring closer players. Jahmai Jones and Tyler Nevin were guys that were close and nether look like they are part of a the future here and are both probably 40 level players.

I believe in Mullins more than you, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't move him in the right deal. But these deals cannot be for more lottery tickets, but for ready or nearly ready players.

I think the main piece should be close to or ML ready.  Secondary pieces don’t have to be.  It depends on so many factors.

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, now said:

Awesome, thanks for that. Another study linked from there, by Tom Tango, gives the following more numerical results (slightly different depending on method): 

Obviously, it's not an exact science. But if you bet on the odds, when looking at players on the cusp of these peak years or beyond, I'd go with "younger is better."

I would love to see that study done with different types of hitters. In other words, players with poor K/BB ratios, players with a speed tool vs big slow power hitters. I'm pretty certain teams have been doing these studies internally which is why players like Adam Jones have to go to Japan to finish playing because the models show he's not worth the investment at his age and skill set.

[Tony-OH]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the main piece should be close to or ML ready.  Secondary pieces don’t have to be.  It depends on so many factors.

Sure, but the key piece can't be in A-ball, especially a pitcher. The Orioles need to compete in 2024 so the key pieces would all need to be ready to play productively by then. 

That's the real difference when you are ready to compete. You can't be trading for guys 3 or 4 years out as the key piece when trading away productive major league talent.

[foxfield]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

1). It’s not the same ownership.  It’s the same family but not the same ownership and there are different motivating factors on what they want to do with the franchise.  

2) The idea that you think im Advocating for them to do the same thing they did before is idiotic.  First of all, the team has already done what I called for years ago.  They rebuilt.  They have a strong MiL foundation to grow from.  They never had that before.  They aren’t going to do the same thing simply because of that.  
 

Secondly, I’m advocating for, outside of Stroman, small moves while we wait for the next wave.  Bringing in guys who have zero long term payroll impact and guys who can help the young kids now, both in terms of leadership and in terms of winning games.

I know you don’t think so but the rebuilding is over.  We are now in the stage of bringing guys up, evaluating and we should start to care about winning.  At this point, they can continue the path they are on in terms of building the minors and win games. The ONLY reason to keep losing, outside of saving money, is to get a high pick.  That’s ridiculous to be doing at this stage of things.  We should not be throwing seasons for a high pick.  All of these years into it, it’s astounding to me that people are still ok with the team doing this.

3). Again, you are being mediocre with a foundation for long term growth.  They never had that in the 2000s. I mean, this shouldn’t have to be said.  Everyone on this site should be smart enough to understand the difference between what is happening now and what happened then.  A history lesson isn’t needed.  Stop acting like they are the same and trying to draw imaginary parallels to that decade.  It’s not close.  

This would be a concern if I was calling for us to trade a bunch of our guys for aging, expensive vets.  This would be a concern if I was trying to hand out a lot of bad contracts (and let’s face it, even if I were advocating that, with how long the payroll is now and later, it wouldn’t really hurt things).

All I want to do is supplement around what we have and what is coming.  What I’m not willing to do is assume player X, who has been good in AA, is definitely up soon and will be ready to be good immediately at a position we don’t know if they can handle yet.  If they prove that, great..then we have a good problem to have.

 

I don't really have an issue with any of this.  You are well informed and strong opinioned and you want the Os to be better.  I agree.  And you love to classify any remote variance from your opinion as idiotic, or stupid, or moronic. Thats great internet stuff and Im ok with that too. 

You are one of the only people who think the rebuild is over.  I won't quibble with details, but you are on an island with that statement.  The Orioles have completed the tearing down and they have largely completed the framework of a rebuild, but this coming J2 draft will really be one of the firsts that they have had time to go deep in.  They have even finally gotten Davis out of the equation even if they still have to pay.  Most importantly, there isn't enough major league talent to even field a team today.

I think we agree that what they have done to get here is good and it is different from what the organization has done for years.  I wouldn't even mind if they did some of what you want now...like say stroman.  My only disagreement is that you make it sound easy to spend say 70-100 Million and make this a contender now.  I personally think they are further away and I think the only person I would spend that kind of money on would be a SS who could be here 10 years.  Becuase the kind of pitching that money will deliver today will be used up before this team is ready.  But if they thought they were ready and spent that $ today, I would certainly be happy and see it as a good sign.  

And I completely agree with you and agree that we should not be willing to assume that all of the AA players will just automatically be good when they get here.  That does not mean the rebuild is not done or that it is nearly complete.  But I do think to most of us, it means that until we have a team at the ML level that can realistically compete to even a .500 level, it's pretty hard to say its done.  Especially when we cant even agree that we have enough talent to field a .500 team without spending at a level that would be considered pretty lofty for the Angelos family...regardless of who makes the call.

But you do always stimulate thought and do it in a concrete way.  You contradict yourself sometimes...but you have the balls to say this is what I think.  Agree or disagree, I can respect that.  

I am liking the foundation.  I am ready to see what they want to do with the main floor.  I am encouraged that we will see results soon and maybe even compete in 2023.  I hope the rebuild is worth the results, regardless of it's completion.  Thanks for putting your thoughts on the line.

[Sports Guy]

37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Sure, but the key piece can't be in A-ball, especially a pitcher. The Orioles need to compete in 2024 so the key pieces would all need to be ready to play productively by then. 

That's the real difference when you are ready to compete. You can't be trading for guys 3 or 4 years out as the key piece when trading away productive major league talent.

I would definitely take a Coby Mayo type guy.

Now, I’m not saying he should be the first guy in the trade but a player in A ball can definitely be up here and contributing in 2 years.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I don't really have an issue with any of this.  You are well informed and strong opinioned and you want the Os to be better.  I agree.  And you love to classify any remote variance from your opinion as idiotic, or stupid, or moronic. Thats great internet stuff and Im ok with that too. 

You are one of the only people who think the rebuild is over.  I won't quibble with details, but you are on an island with that statement.  The Orioles have completed the tearing down and they have largely completed the framework of a rebuild, but this coming J2 draft will really be one of the firsts that they have had time to go deep in.  They have even finally gotten Davis out of the equation even if they still have to pay.  Most importantly, there isn't enough major league talent to even field a team today.

I think we agree that what they have done to get here is good and it is different from what the organization has done for years.  I wouldn't even mind if they did some of what you want now...like say stroman.  My only disagreement is that you make it sound easy to spend say 70-100 Million and make this a contender now.  I personally think they are further away and I think the only person I would spend that kind of money on would be a SS who could be here 10 years.  Becuase the kind of pitching that money will deliver today will be used up before this team is ready.  But if they thought they were ready and spent that $ today, I would certainly be happy and see it as a good sign.  

And I completely agree with you and agree that we should not be willing to assume that all of the AA players will just automatically be good when they get here.  That does not mean the rebuild is not done or that it is nearly complete.  But I do think to most of us, it means that until we have a team at the ML level that can realistically compete to even a .500 level, it's pretty hard to say its done.  Especially when we cant even agree that we have enough talent to field a .500 team without spending at a level that would be considered pretty lofty for the Angelos family...regardless of who makes the call.

But you do always stimulate thought and do it in a concrete way.  You contradict yourself sometimes...but you have the balls to say this is what I think.  Agree or disagree, I can respect that.  

I am liking the foundation.  I am ready to see what they want to do with the main floor.  I am encouraged that we will see results soon and maybe even compete in 2023.  I hope the rebuild is worth the results, regardless of it's completion.  Thanks for putting your thoughts on the line.

What I characterized as idiotic is a totally misrepresentation of what I’m saying. You should easily be able to read that I’m not advocating anything even remotely like what happened in 2000-2010 and if you do think it’s the same, you really need a history lesson.

Im fine with being on that island.  Anyone who thinks we are still rebuilding don’t understand what rebuilding is.  Rebuilding doesn’t cause you win anything.  Rebuilding doesn’t develop players.  All rebuilding does is tear down and build up.  The Orioles have already done that.  The rebuild doesn’t continue just because the Os continue to suck.  We have “the best farm system”.  We have no money on the payroll long term.  It’s done.  There is nothing else to rebuild.  It’s not about making the ML team better but that has nothing to do with rebuilding.  And the J2 class has absolutely nothing to do with rebuilding.  It’s something that needed to be done but that has nothing to do with rebuilding.

I never once said If they spend 70-100M that they can contend right now.  No idea where you are getting that from.  I haven’t even remotely said that. I have been clear that my goal is to be close to a 500 team in 2022.  That’s not a contender.  This is what I’m talking about.  Read the words I’m saying.  Stop thinking you can read between the lines or anything like that because you can’t.  

[now]

48 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would love to see that study done with different types of hitters. In other words, players with poor K/BB ratios, players with a speed tool vs big slow power hitters. I'm pretty certain teams have been doing these studies internally which is why players like Adam Jones have to go to Japan to finish playing because the models show he's not worth the investment at his age and skill set.

That earlier article Frobby linked covered a lot of different skills and while the performance peak was at 27-28, the raw tools peak was generally more like 22-24. Basically across the board. Interesting tidbit there was that speed declines 4 inches/year. And yeah, the mental and experience side of the game compensates to some extent. But it's a losing battle, aging!

[Paul in Virginia]

John Means, Potential Trade Target | FanGraphs Baseball

Let's hope the rest of the league reads this......

 

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

I used to think that If you traded Means then you had to trade Mullins too. I don’t think that anymore. Means can’t pitch everyday, and really only GR and Hall, are our only legit SP prospects. So if you can flip Means for two mid rotation to top rotation arms, then we should listen. 
 

The goal is to trot out a SP everyday that gives us a chance to win versus one SP that might be a #2 SP on a playoff team. 

[Brooks The Great]

15 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I used to think that If you traded Means then you had to trade Mullins too. I don’t think that anymore. Means can’t pitch everyday, and really only GR and Hall, are our only legit SP prospects. So if you can flip Means for two mid rotation to top rotation arms, then we should listen. 
 

The goal is to trot out a SP everyday that gives us a chance to win versus one SP that might be a #2 SP on a playoff team. 

As other posters have already mentioned, the Marlins make so much sense as a trade partner. They're ready to win now, and have some pitching depth in their minors system.

[Frobby]

On 12/8/2021 at 8:23 PM, Paul in Virginia said:

John Means, Potential Trade Target | FanGraphs Baseball

Let's hope the rest of the league reads this......

You’d think from the title of the article that they’d actually be talking about his trade value or possible trade partners.   But it’s basically a long article that says Means should throw fewer fastballs to RHB.