Could the O's lose the #1 pick in the 2022 draft?

[wildcard]

From MLBTR:

MLB recently put forward a new suggestion: a lottery for the top three amateur draft choices. Rather than setting the draft order as the inverse of the league standings — as is the current setup — this proposal would introduce a weighted system that injects more randomness into the process. Teams with the worst records would still have a greater chance of securing higher picks, but any non-playoff team would have a chance at a top three selection.

That offer is in response to players’ concerns that the current system rewards teams that orchestrate long-term rebuilds with perennially high draft choices. Of course, it’s not entirely clear that a weighted lottery would serve as much of a disincentive for tanking, since teams would still have higher probabilities of top picks with worse records.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/mlb-reportedly-proposes-14-team-playoff-field-in-collective-bargaining-negotiations.html

[Sports Guy]

I would think any changes will start with the next draft.

[Frobby]

It’s been made pretty clear that any rule changes like this won’t be in effect until after the 2022 season.   

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s been made pretty clear that any rule changes like this won’t be in effect until after the 2022 season.   

So no DH in the NL in 2022?

[Aristotelian]

MLB hates the Orioles. Of course they could. That said, if this is part of the playoff proposal for 2022, they are talking about the draft order for 2023.

[Frobby]

On the merits, I like the idea, but it might need to be top 5 rather than top 3.    And, the lottery should be weighted so that the worst teams aren’t virtually assured to get a top 5 pick.   But, they also should prevent the top teams from getting them.  

[panick]

The NBA has a lottery for the top 13(?) picks. 

Despite this, the 76ers were almost bragging about tanking for at least three years.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, panick said:

The NBA has a lottery for the top 13(?) picks. 

Despite this, the 76ers were almost bragging about tanking for at least three years.

Yea but the worst teams are basically guaranteed to pick in the top 4 I believe.  It’s just a matter of what order.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So no DH in the NL in 2022?

That’s probably something they would do.  That’s a little different scenario than changing the draft.

[interloper]

Elias is gonna go underslot either way, so it doesn't matter right?

[bpilktree]

Does the number 1 pick really matter that much in baseball. It is still a huge crap shoot anyways first 3 picks.  Just look at the top picks over last 40 years.  You have maybe 4 Hall of famers in there and more guys that never even made the majors. You could probably do same thing with the first three or 5 picks in a draft.  

[interloper]

1 minute ago, bpilktree said:

Does the number 1 pick really matter that much in baseball. It is still a huge crap shoot anyways first 3 picks.  Just look at the top picks over last 40 years.  You have maybe 4 Hall of famers in there and more guys that never even made the majors. You could probably do same thing with the first three or 5 picks in a draft.  

Yeah it's pretty rare to have a draft with a near-consensus #1 like Adley. This would have virtually no effect on teams tanking, IMO. 

[NCRaven]

3 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Does the number 1 pick really matter that much in baseball. It is still a huge crap shoot anyways first 3 picks.  Just look at the top picks over last 40 years.  You have maybe 4 Hall of famers in there and more guys that never even made the majors. You could probably do same thing with the first three or 5 picks in a draft.  

Pool money is a big factor too.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s probably something they would do.  That’s a little different scenario than changing the draft.

So what you want to happen MLB might do.  But what you don't want to happen MLB won't do.

I don't trust Manfred.  If he can stick it to the O's he will.

[Just Regular]

CBA-wise, I'm more anxious about retaining 6.x years of the #1 pick in the 2019 draft when the dust settles.

I'm cautiously optimistic phasing in will happen as guys newly affiliate, but certainly could imagine Mountcastle no Arb until age 27, Rutschman no FA until age 31 as conspicuous examples as the PR battles of December and January unfold.    I believe any player-friendly modifications that touch current pros would be very no bueno for our group.