Jordan Lyles 2022

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 4/20/2022 at 10:46 PM, Frobby said:

That’s crazy.  

What’s crazy is that he is pitching well. Fingers crossed.

[AnythingO's]

45 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

What’s crazy is that he is pitching well. Fingers crossed.

FTFY: What’s crazy is that he is pitching well ENOUGH. Fingers crossed.

How often will we be able to say this in 2022?

The Red Sox went 3-7 on a swing through Tampa Bay, Toronto and Baltimore to drop within a half-game of the last-place Orioles in the AL East.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

FTFY: What’s crazy is that he is pitching well ENOUGH. Fingers crossed.

How often will we be able to say this in 2022?

The Red Sox went 3-7 on a swing through Tampa Bay, Toronto and Baltimore to drop within a half-game of the last-place Orioles in the AL East.

Hopefully, often.   This may not be the best Red Sox team.  Of course, I also said that when we swept them in the opening series last year.

[Pickles]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hopefully, often.   This may not be the best Red Sox team.  Of course, I also said that when we swept them in the opening series last year.

To be fair, you weren't wrong.

[Pickles]

By my calculations, Lyles' outing today should bring his ERA to 4.68.  If he keeps that up all year I think we would all be thrilled with that.  I expect him to regress a bit, but honestly, he doesn't look like he's going to be a disaster.

Interesting note on the environment.  That 4.68 would still be below 90 ERA+.  The O's have (going into today) a collective ERA of 3.61, but we're still only 11th in RA.  11th in RA with a collective ERA+ of 107.  Part of that is an abnormal amount of unearned runs.  

But part of it too is a really low offensive environment.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

By my calculations, Lyles' outing today should bring his ERA to 4.68.  If he keeps that up all year I think we would all be thrilled with that.  I expect him to regress a bit, but honestly, he doesn't look like he's going to be a disaster.

Interesting note on the environment.  That 4.68 would still be below 90 ERA+.  The O's have (going into today) a collective ERA of 3.61, but we're still only 11th in RA.  11th in RA with a collective ERA+ of 107.  Part of that is an abnormal amount of unearned runs.  

But part of it too is a really low offensive environment.

If he throws 160-180 innings of 5 ERA ball, he will have been worth signing.

[PHRESH]

I hope he's the next Hammel 

[wildcard]

Currently at a 4.50 ERA.

[Aristotelian]

The $7M actually doesn't seem so crazy. In fact, the $11M option doesn't seem so crazy.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If he throws 160-180 innings of 5 ERA ball, he will have been worth signing.

Not disagreeing, but let's assume for the sake of argument that runs stay right where they are for the rest of the year.  A 5.00 ERA this year would be the last year equivalent of about a 5.80. Psychologically it feels okay, but in 2022 in OPACY a 5.00 ERA isn't good.

But after five years of the worst pitching in the majors I'm fine with some delusions and placebos from dead balls and park effects.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Currently at a 4.50 ERA.

Just stay right around here and don't have too many short outings and he's gonna be a big help to this team.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Not disagreeing, but let's assume for the sake of argument that runs stay right where they are for the rest of the year.  A 5.00 ERA this year would be the last year equivalent of about a 5.80. Psychologically it feels okay, but in 2022 in OPACY a 5.00 ERA isn't good.

But after five years of the worst pitching in the majors I'm fine with some delusions and placebos from dead balls and park effects.

Well, a 6ish ERA is about what I expected out of him this year, which would have also likely meant less innings.

The IP are really the key.  If he can keep us in most games and throw “a lot” of innings, that’s good enough.

[bobmc]

40 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Not disagreeing, but let's assume for the sake of argument that runs stay right where they are for the rest of the year.  A 5.00 ERA this year would be the last year equivalent of about a 5.80. Psychologically it feels okay, but in 2022 in OPACY a 5.00 ERA isn't good.

But after five years of the worst pitching in the majors I'm fine with some delusions and placebos from dead balls and park effects.

Not disagreeing either, but it sounds like you're disagreeing.  

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Not disagreeing either, but it sounds like you're disagreeing.  

They needed someone who can get through five innings without embarrassing themselves.  It's easier when the league scores four runs a game than five.  Takes a long time for perceptions to catch up with reality.  Even if nothing changes it'll be 2030 before a 5.00 is embarrassing.

[Frobby]

Last year, Lyle’s 5.15 ERA equated to an 85 ERA+.   This year, his 4.50 ERA equates to an 85 ERA+, in the tepid run scoring environment we’ve seen in the early going.   I expect scoring will increase as the weather warms and the number of pitchers teams are allowed to carry shrinks.   So Lyles’ ERA probably increases from here.   If he stays in the 85 ERA+ range (regardless of what his raw ERA is), he’s meeting reasonable expectations so far as I’m concerned.   Four of his five starts have come against AL East clubs, so that’s a good sign that the change in opponent quality hasn’t affected his performance much so far.