Austin Hays 2022

[clapdiddy]

3 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

I feel it probably is something to do with health.  He was explosive two-three years ago.  Making some epic catches.   He has not shown anything like that this year.   His wheels might be hurting.  Maybe we find out in some article in the off season when they admit the truth.   

If this is the case, he should not be playing.   I realize guys play hurt all the time, but he has fallen off a cliff.   

[vab]

I think Hays is obviously dealing with injuries and has probably gotten into some bad habits in compensating for previous injuries but he has never been able to stay healthy. I think it's clear now he will not hold up physically as an everyday player and he should be used in some sort of platoon or part-time role if they're going to keep him. 

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, vab said:

I think Hays is obviously dealing with injuries and has probably gotten into some bad habits in compensating for previous injuries but he has never been able to stay healthy. I think it's clear now he will not hold up physically as an everyday player and he should be used in some sort of platoon or part-time role if they're going to keep him. 

Hays does not have extreme splits, but Cedric Mullins does. This year Mullins is hitting .201/.558 after .277/.788 last year. Maybe his new LH approach has been exposed, or maybe it normalizes to something like .650. Hays is .780 for his career (.700 this year). Together maybe they get closer to 4+ WAR vs Cedric's 3.3 WAR this year? Seems worth a shot to keep Hays healthy and get a little more offensive production out of CF until we see Cedric make progress against LHP. We're already trying it with McKenna although I don't think he's the answer. 

[Frobby]

Meanwhile, Hays is hitting .333/.482/.429 over the last seven games and has gotten on base at least once in each game.  Not really a full-fledged hot streak, but at least the extended slump is on pause. 

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Meanwhile, Hays is hitting .333/.482/.429 over the last seven games and has gotten on base at least once in each game.  Not really a full-fledged hot streak, but at least the extended slump is on pause. 

Walked twice last night.  Uncharacteristically.  

[Frobby]

Just noticed that Hays has now played in the exact number of games he played last year.  The numbers are very similar.  2021 vs. 2022:

Games 131/131

PA 529/531

AB 488/486

R 73/60

H 125/121

2B 26/32

3B 4/1

HR 22/15

RBI 71/55

BA .256/.249

OBP .308/309

SLG .461/.412

For context, the league BA is down 3 points, OBP down 7 points, SLG down 23 points.  Then throw in the impact of the wall.  It’s pretty close to the same season, in context.  

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just noticed that Hays has now played in the exact number of games he played last year.  The numbers are very similar.  2021 vs. 2022:

Games 131/131

PA 529/531

AB 488/486

R 73/60

H 125/121

2B 26/32

3B 4/1

HR 22/15

RBI 71/55

BA .256/.249

OBP .308/309

SLG .461/.412

For context, the league BA is down 3 points, OBP down 7 points, SLG down 23 points.  Then throw in the impact of the wall.  It’s pretty close to the same season, in context.  

He's a 2+ WAR guy.   With upside for more.  He's 26.  This fourth outfielder talk is pretty silly.

That said, I've been very disappointed with his second half, and it's fair to criticize his performance.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

He's a 2+ WAR guy.   With upside for more.  He's 26.  This fourth outfielder talk is pretty silly.

That said, I've been very disappointed with his second half, and it's fair to criticize his performance.

What you fail to understand is that his health is what holds him back from being a reliable everyday option.  He has played in games this year but he has been hurt for a lot of the season.

He’s just not a reliable guy. His defense is also slipping. It’s not that he can’t provide surplus value because obviously he can.  It’s that we need better hitters and fielders to win.  There is definitely a place on this team for him to have a big role.  
 

There shouldn’t be a place for him to enter the season as the everyday starting LFer.

[Pickles]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What you fail to understand is that his health is what holds him back from being a reliable everyday option.  He has played in games this year but he has been hurt for a lot of the season.

He’s just not a reliable guy. His defense is also slipping. It’s not that he can’t provide surplus value because obviously he can.  It’s that we need better hitters and fielders to win.  There is definitely a place on this team for him to have a big role.  
 

There shouldn’t be a place for him to enter the season as the everyday starting LFer.

If you can bring an external upgrade to LF, a "big bat", that doesn't compromise the defense too much, then that could make sense.  And that is of course an endless conversation revolving around a million hypotheticals.

But as the organizational depth chart stands now, Hays should be starting in LF on Opening Day.

[RZNJ]

As awful as Hays has been in the 2nd half I'm fine starting out with him as next year's LF.  We have Stowers in the running and Cowser in waiting.  It's called depth.  Hays will hopefully do better or will be replaced.  Even in a "bad" season Hays is a 2 WAR player.   I'd give him one more chance.  Giving up on him now seems like a lose lose.  I also think Vavra can compete for that job.

Edited September 21, 2022 by RZNJ

[Aristotelian]

19 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He's a 2+ WAR guy.   With upside for more.  He's 26.  This fourth outfielder talk is pretty silly.

That said, I've been very disappointed with his second half, and it's fair to criticize his performance.

BBref and Fangraphs have him 1.7 and 1.5, so not really 2+. Most of that value was accrued during the first half. Since July his monthly OPS .566, .638, and .603. He just seems like another one of these guys like Mateo, Urias, Mountcastle, etc, who have established a pretty high floor but just don't have a lot of upside.

You look at the Blue Jays lineup, they two 130+ OPS+ guys, three guys in the 120's, and two in the 110's (their two worst guys are 99's). We have two 130+ guys if you include Gunnar's small sample, nobody in the 120's, Santander 117, then everybody else is in the low 100's down to Mateo 83. Hays is fine if he's the worst guy in your lineup buy you can't have a lineup full of Hayses if you want more than 85 wins. 

[MCO'sFan]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Hays does not have extreme splits, but Cedric Mullins does. This year Mullins is hitting .201/.558 after .277/.788 last year. Maybe his new LH approach has been exposed, or maybe it normalizes to something like .650. Hays is .780 for his career (.700 this year). Together maybe they get closer to 4+ WAR vs Cedric's 3.3 WAR this year? Seems worth a shot to keep Hays healthy and get a little more offensive production out of CF until we see Cedric make progress against LHP. We're already trying it with McKenna although I don't think he's the answer. 

I don't hate the idea of a Hays/Mullins platoon if you can't move one of them this offseason. It would get expensive and hurt their trade value. I am not sure how either will be viewed by other teams this offseason. 

[Sports Guy]

I guess I’m missing why Hays has so much support.  I mean, I like him but he is oft injured, poor plate discipline, middling power and declining defense.

If he didn’t come up with the Os, I don’t think anyone here would be clamoring that we trade for him.

This board, and Os fans on social media in general, really  overrate the talent on this team.

This has been a fun ride this year and the team is in a great place.

But the bottom line is that we aren’t close to the best teams in the league.  This team needs serious upgrades.

Pushing guys like Urias, Mateo and Hays to bench roles is what we should be striving for.  Instead, we have people who want to keep giving them chances even though we have a good idea who and what they are.

Luckily, it’s obvious Elias doesn’t feel this way.

[OriolesMagic83]

19 hours ago, Gurgi said:

I feel it probably is something to do with health.  He was explosive two-three years ago.  Making some epic catches.   He has not shown anything like that this year.   His wheels might be hurting.  Maybe we find out in some article in the off season when they admit the truth.   

He seemed to be a lot more explosive even in the 1st half.  Not only was he hitting better, he was making some highlight reel catches.  I can't remember the last time he made a great catch.  Not sure what his trade value is, but it seems like it would be decreased from last year.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I guess I’m missing why Hays has so much support.  I mean, I like him but he is oft injured, poor plate discipline, middling power and declining defense.

In my case, I just like the guy.  He’s an energetic, enthusiastic player and seems like a good teammate. 

That said, I’m really disappointed with his second half.  His spot is certainly one that could be upgraded if we find the right guy.