Potential Trey Mancini Trade Destinations

[BohKnowsBmore]

There's been some talk around potential trades the Orioles could make before the deadline. With Mancini being a free agent, he seems like one of the most logical moves, esp. if Rutschman is going to DH on days he doesn't catch. 

Trey currently has a 124 OPS+, which would be the second best of his career to 2019 (excluding 15 PA in 2016). Further, if you look at his batted ball data, it seems he actually may be a bit unlucky right now, suggesting that the underlying performance is actually better than what we're seeing in current numbers.

To get a sense of which teams could represent reasonable destinations, I have listed teams below that currently have a team OPS less than .650 at either 1B or DH AND a team record of .500 or better.

 

 San Diego Padres 

.611 from the DH position

Luke Voit, who they traded for in the offseason, has been a major disappointment, posting a .625 OPS on the season to date. This is a lineup lacking a lot of thump beyond Machado at this point.

Houston Astros

.633 from the 1B position 

Yuli Gurriel is 38 and currently posting the second  worst OPS of his career (.666).

Minnesota Twins

.584 from the 1B position

Miguel Sano was having a putrid start to the season and is now on the 60-day IL. Jose Miranda has posted a .375 OPS in 63 PA thus far.

Chicago White Sox

.561 from the 1B position

Jose Abreu currently has a .655 OPS. A handful of other guys have posted poor numbers in limited PA as the 1B (e.g., Andrew Vaughn with 9 PA at a .222).

 

Bottom line:

Right now, I would say the Twins followed by the Padres would be the most logical candidates, with Houston in a reasonable third. Seriously doubt the White Sox would look to replace Abreu with Mancini given track record. Standings and performance levels can obviously change, and the market for Mancini will ultimately be determined by who else is available in trade. Goal here is to snapshot what seems likely as of the morning of May 23rd. 

Additional wildcard could be a team that also sees him as a COF (or pushes someone at 1B/DH to more innings in the OF).

[waroriole]

The return would be so minimal I wonder if it’s even worth trading him. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, waroriole said:

The return would be so minimal I wonder if it’s even worth trading him. 

Of course it is.

Mancini has played five games in the outfield this season.  That's five too many.

Mountcastle is the 1B and he needs to play everyday.

With Adley on the roster and players like Santander needing days off from the field the O's can't afford to have an everyday DH.

Now if you'd rather extend Mancini and trade Mountcastle, that's a horse of a different color.

[MCO'sFan]

I was actually thinking about this yesterday as AR was at DH. In order to play Mancini, Hyde weakend two positions. Santander in LF and of course Trey in RF. Trey is starting to cause a playing time issue and when Stowers is ready he is blocking him and others. He provides little position flexibility. This will continue to be an issue all year as AR sees time at DH. They aren't going to regularly sit Mancini so he needs to go. I like and respect Trey as much as anyone but he doesn't fit on the roster anymore.  

[jamalshw]

15 minutes ago, waroriole said:

The return would be so minimal I wonder if it’s even worth trading him. 

It doesn't seem like Mancini will be back in 2023 so might as well trade him and get something, but I do agree that if the return is so little that it's basically a lottery ticket, I don't think I trade him. 

That said, if he keeps hitting, I do think we can get a solid mid-range prospect, a pitcher (maybe in A or AA) that has a mid-to-backend rotation ceiling and a mid-innings reliever floor.  

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, waroriole said:

The return would be so minimal I wonder if it’s even worth trading him. 

The return would be somewhere around $4M in savings. 

[waroriole]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The return would be somewhere around $4M in savings. 

Ownership’s bank account is not my concern. 

[Sports Guy]

If he is hitting well, I think you can get a few pieces that may end up playing the role of a reliever or some role player type role.  Combine that with saved money, the roster spot and making it even easier to play younger players and I think is a move you do.  I don't want him here for 10M next year.

There is also a respect thing for Trey here.  Let him go somewhere and win.  Also, be willing to eat some of the contract to increase your return.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Ownership’s bank account is not my concern. 

Elias could bring back something interesting with $4M to spend. 

[waroriole]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Elias could bring back something interesting with $4M to spend. 

Shouldn’t he already have at least 50M he can spend? He doesn’t seem to be using it. 

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Shouldn’t he already have at least 50M he can spend? He doesn’t seem to be using it. 

Probably more than that, but it doesn't hurt to have more. No, he has not spent yet but it hasn't made nearly the strategic sense to spend the last three years as it might in the next year or two. Of course, if you believe that saved cash merely goes into ownership accounts you are free to do so. 

[wildcard]

Trading Mancini depends on whether the O's are in the play off race in July or not.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trading Mancini depends on whether the O's are in the play off race in July or not.

(1) Being in 5th in the division now makes that a long shot, especially with the SP where it is (incl. Means lost for year)

(2) I think it makes sense to deal Mancini and/or Santander unless they have an inside track to playoffs to make room for young guys like Diaz and Stowers to get a shot at ML level

[TommyPickles]

Machado and Trey reuniting in San Diego for a playoff run would be kind of a fun storyline. 

I'll be sad to see him go, but I get it.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trading Mancini depends on whether the O's are in the play off race in July or not.

OK, so we’re trading him then.