Mateo League Leader in Defensive WAR

[Ohfan67]

I really enjoy watching Mateo play, minus the occasional very frustrating error. He's a significantly better defender than I thought. 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Hallas said:

From a practical standpoint you can't really have a replacement level fielder for a couple reasons: 1: replacement-level fielders are usually demoted to less important/less challenging defensive positions until they find one that they are close to average at. 2: defense is almost never a primary reason a player gets kicked off the team for a AAAA player.  It's pretty much exclusively offense, or at the very least offense in conjunction with the player's positional value, that dictates player replacement.

It's really just because the determination of a player's value and whether they're above or below replacement or average or whatever bar you set is based on all their contributions.  Not just defense.

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Markakis was really good but the metrics say he was below average.  How do you know he was really good?  Because I said so. Why then do the metrics say he was below average?  Because they suck, because I said so.

It's not worth it. Wildcard is going to fall on his sword over his eyes!

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's not worth it. Wildcard is going to fall on his sword over his eyes!

I'm a Markakis fan, but there were times it looked like he was running in quicksand trying to catch up to balls hit to the outfield. 

[jdwilde1]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

My eyes told me for years that Markakis was below average in RF and definitely that jones should not be playing CF towards the end of his time in Baltimore. Both of my "eyes assessments" were back up by most defensive metrics.

The problem I have had with defensive metrics, especially outfield pre-statcast era, is how a player’s dwar could vary significantly from year to year even though I could not see any discernible  difference in performance.  For example, baseball reference shows Markakis’s dwars as -0.1 in 2007 (age 23), +1.8 in 2008 (age 24), -0.8 (age 25), and -1.7  in 2010 (age 26).  A +1.8 dwar in RF is elite (Mookie Betts averaged +1.7 dwar from age 21-27).  -1.7 dwar in RF is a awful (consider Trey Mancini posted a -1.1 dwar 2019 when he played over 90 games in the OF, and  spent the rest of his time at DH and 1B).  
 

Mike Trout had similar swings in dwar performance (see 2012-2015 +2.0, -1.2, -0.7, + 1.3).  Trout’s dwar, like Markakis, indicates elite defense one season and a butcher the next year.

However, defensive  performances, like base running,  tend to be much more consistent than offensive.  So, is it possible that Markakis was just really hot defensively in 2008 and really slumped in 2010 but I just didn’t notice?  Perhaps, but probably not.  
 

With that said, the ability to accurately  measure defense improves every year.  And the ability to accurately measure infield defense has always been more reliable than outfield defense (top 4 career dwar are Ozzie Smith, Mark Bellanger, Brooks, and Cal).  So, whether you are going by what you see, the metrics, or both, Mateo has been outstanding at shortstop this year.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

45 minutes ago, jdwilde1 said:

The problem I have had with defensive metrics, especially outfield pre-statcast era, is how a player’s dwar could vary significantly from year to year even though I could not see any discernible  difference in performance.  For example, baseball reference shows Markakis’s dwars as -0.1 in 2007 (age 23), +1.8 in 2008 (age 24), -0.8 (age 25), and -1.7  in 2010 (age 26).  A +1.8 dwar in RF is elite (Mookie Betts averaged +1.7 dwar from age 21-27).  -1.7 dwar in RF is a awful (consider Trey Mancini posted a -1.1 dwar 2019 when he played over 90 games in the OF, and  spent the rest of his time at DH and 1B).  
 

Mike Trout had similar swings in dwar performance (see 2012-2015 +2.0, -1.2, -0.7, + 1.3).  Trout’s dwar, like Markakis, indicates elite defense one season and a butcher the next year.

However, defensive  performances, like base running,  tend to be much more consistent than offensive.  So, is it possible that Markakis was just really hot defensively in 2008 and really slumped in 2010 but I just didn’t notice?  Perhaps, but probably not.  
 

With that said, the ability to accurately  measure defense improves every year.  And the ability to accurately measure infield defense has always been more reliable than outfield defense (top 4 career dwar are Ozzie Smith, Mark Bellanger, Brooks, and Cal).  So, whether you are going by what you see, the metrics, or both, Mateo has been outstanding at shortstop this year.  

One issue I have with dWAR is it seems to grade harder on some position players. Keith Hernandez is regarded by many as the best fielding 1B in MLB history.

What that gets Keith for his accumulated career dWAR is a grand total of 1.3.  I know 1B is an easier position defensively, but it seems to not really reflect the defensive value of some players. 

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Did you read what you just wrote. OAA does not factor in the arm of outfielders.  And you suspect  Fangraph does.   But it does not sound like you know what is factored in.  And you are knowledgable on this stuff.   If you don't know how it is calculated  you  are just guessing and maybe so are they.

You misread what I wrote.  Fangraphs defense definitely takes outfielders arms into account.  I suspect it will prove to be a good defensive measure.  They’ve only started using OAA as their range component this season, so I need to see it in operation for a while before having a strong opinion as to how good a stat it is.  

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

The problem I have had with defensive metrics, especially outfield pre-statcast era, is how a player’s dwar could vary significantly from year to year even though I could not see any discernible  difference in performance.  For example, baseball reference shows Markakis’s dwars as -0.1 in 2007 (age 23), +1.8 in 2008 (age 24), -0.8 (age 25), and -1.7  in 2010 (age 26).  A +1.8 dwar in RF is elite (Mookie Betts averaged +1.7 dwar from age 21-27).  -1.7 dwar in RF is a awful (consider Trey Mancini posted a -1.1 dwar 2019 when he played over 90 games in the OF, and  spent the rest of his time at DH and 1B).  
 

Mike Trout had similar swings in dwar performance (see 2012-2015 +2.0, -1.2, -0.7, + 1.3).  Trout’s dwar, like Markakis, indicates elite defense one season and a butcher the next year.

However, defensive  performances, like base running,  tend to be much more consistent than offensive.  So, is it possible that Markakis was just really hot defensively in 2008 and really slumped in 2010 but I just didn’t notice?  Perhaps, but probably not.  

Why do you think that fielding is much more consistent than hitting?  Would you come to the same conclusion if we mainly judged offense by feel and observation, like many have always done with defense? I think that subjective observation has a smoothing, averaging effect that makes it seem like defense is more consistent  But you can't really tell until you have metrics.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

One issue I have with dWAR is it seems to grade harder on some position players. Keith Hernandez is regarded by many as the best fielding 1B in MLB history.

What that gets Keith for his accumulated career dWAR is a grand total of 1.3.  I know 1B is an easier position defensively, but it seems to not really reflect the defensive value of some players. 

Doesn't it make sense that someone who was placed at the least important defensive position would only have about as much impact as an average player at somewhere like 2B or CF? Hernandez is seen by TZ as a +117 run defensive first baseman, one of the best totals ever.  But that's tempered by the fact that he was being judged against players like Kent Hrbek and Darrell Evans, Glenn Davis and Bill Buckner, John Mayberry and Dan Driessen.  Guys who clearly couldn't field other positions, especially on the back ends of their careers. Kent Hrbek was considered a very good defensive first baseman, but if you put him at short... I mean, he weighed 250 on a good day; that wouldn't cut it in a softball beer league.

Another way to look at it: Hernandez has a higher career (defense + position) than Derek Jeter by over 10 wins.

[ChosenOne21]

Wasn't there some thing where Jones and Markakis had giant home/road splits on one of the advanced defensive metrics, maybe UZR, and ink was spilled wondering if something about Camden Yards messed with UZR calculations?

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Wasn't there some thing where Jones and Markakis had giant home/road splits on one of the advanced defensive metrics, maybe UZR, and ink was spilled wondering if something about Camden Yards messed with UZR calculations?

Yes

[DrungoHazewood]

32 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Wasn't there some thing where Jones and Markakis had giant home/road splits on one of the advanced defensive metrics, maybe UZR, and ink was spilled wondering if something about Camden Yards messed with UZR calculations?

Yes, to some degree, but then Nick went to Atlanta and had basically the same defensive metrics he had in Baltimore.  Also, by far, Nick's biggest outlier season defensively was 2008 when he was +22. So if someone suspects TZ ouliers are suspect you'll need to knock about ten runs off his performance that year.

It would be nice to have Statcast for most of history, but we don't.  So just do the best you can with the data that's available.

[Moose Milligan]

9 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

One issue I have with dWAR is it seems to grade harder on some position players. Keith Hernandez is regarded by many as the best fielding 1B in MLB history.

What that gets Keith for his accumulated career dWAR is a grand total of 1.3.  I know 1B is an easier position defensively, but it seems to not really reflect the defensive value of some players. 

I bet @DrungoHazewoodcan speak to this better than any of us can, but I don't understand the Hernandez quandary, either.  I know he played 1B different than others, he'd charge bunts and the Mets defensive rotation was different than any other team because of what he was able to do as a defender.

I'm sure if this was Eddie Murray we were talking about we'd be a bit more up in arms about how he got shafted by dWAR and that anyone who was able to watch him play would say he was a better defender than the defensive metrics say.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Why do you think that fielding is much more consistent than hitting?  Would you come to the same conclusion if we mainly judged offense by feel and observation, like many have always done with defense? I think that subjective observation has a smoothing, averaging effect that makes it seem like defense is more consistent  But you can't really tell until you have metrics.

Because athleticism doesn’t go into a slump. Your range should not fall off a cliff out of nowhere. If you lose a step it’s more gradual. Now it’s possible someone is playing hurt one year. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Because athleticism doesn’t go into a slump. Your range should not fall off a cliff out of nowhere. If you lose a step it’s more gradual. Now it’s possible someone is playing hurt one year. 

Sure it does.

You yourself said it, mild injuries can sap athleticism.  Heck, mental state can sap it.