Mateo League Leader in Defensive WAR

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

I didn’t know this! Impressive!

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders/_/type/defensive

[seak05]

His defense this year has been leaps and bounds better. It’s really good to see

[Frobby]

I don’t trust any one advanced defensive metric, so I like to look at all of them:

Rtot: +4

Rdts: +9 (note: this stat feeds into dWAR)

UZR: +2.1

OAA: +4 (translates to +3 RAA)

Fangraphs def. +5.5 (7th in MLB).

To explain just a little, dWAR is a combination of positional adjustment, and how many defensive runs saved at a position.   Mateo gets a positional adjustment of +2 and Rdrs (also known as Rfield) of +9.   That gives him +11 runs which translates to +1.2 wins (dWAR).   

Over the winter, Fangraphs changed its Fangraphs defense metric to use Statcast’s OAA to measure range.   Fangraphs defense, like dWAR, has a positional adjustment.  It also has a separate component for infielders for efficiency in turning double plays.   He’s 7th in defense as measured by Fangraphs, 4th among shortstops.

So, there is some variance in how good Mateo’s defense has been depending on what stats you prefer.   However, the good news is that all these stats are solidly in the plus column.   Often, you’ll see them pointing in different directions.   So, you can have a pretty high degree of confidence that Mateo has been a plus defender to this point of the season.  And I for one wasn’t really expecting that.
 

 

[eddie83]

Just feels like to me he has been a little off lately. The numbers though are really impressive. 

[wildcard]

I don't need the metrics.  I said in the off season he had great range and a great arm.  But he would commit at least 20 errors if he played every day.   And that is what I have seen during the season so far.   I really enjoy watching him play.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t trust any one advanced defensive metric, so I like to look at all of them:

Rtot: +4

Rdts: +9 (note: this stat feeds into dWAR)

UZR: +2.1

OAA: +4 (translates to +3 RAA)

Fangraphs def. +5.5 (7th in MLB).

To explain just a little, dWAR is a combination of positional adjustment, and how many defensive runs saved at a position.   Mateo gets a positional adjustment of +2 and Rdrs (also known as Rfield) of +9.   That gives him +11 runs which translates to +1.2 wins (dWAR).   

Over the winter, Fangraphs changed its Fangraphs defense metric to use Statcast’s OAA to measure range.   Fangraphs defense, like dWAR, has a positional adjustment.  It also has a separate component for infielders for efficiency in turning double plays.   He’s 7th in defense as measured by Fangraphs, 4th among shortstops.

So, there is some variance in how good Mateo’s defense has been depending on what stats you prefer.   However, the good news is that all these stats are solidly in the plus column.   Often, you’ll see them pointing in different directions.   So, you can have a pretty high degree of confidence that Mateo has been a plus defender to this point of the season.  And I for one wasn’t really expecting that.
 

 

Thank you for providing the necessary FAQ so that when someone misuses dWAR we'll have a handy explanation to point them to.

Additionally: remember, there is no such thing as defensive wins above replacement, or offensive wins above replacement.  Only Wins Above Replacement for the whole player and all of their contributions.  dWAR is really just defensive runs above average plus positional adjustment, which always needs to be put in context of the player's hitting, baserunning and proclivity to avoid double plays. If you want to isolate a player's defensive value, just use their defensive runs above/below average preferably from a variety of sources.  Statcast OAA is almost certainly the best of the metrics.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't need the metrics.  I said in the off season he had great range and a great arm.  But he would commit at least 20 errors if he played every day.   And that is what I have seen during the season so far.   I really enjoy watching him play.

I think the question is when you add it up what is the overall defensive contribution. With at least three variables in play that you mention, the metrics help to quantify that. I agree he is fun to watch. 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Thank you for providing the necessary FAQ so that when someone misuses dWAR we'll have a handy explanation to point them to.

Additionally: remember, there is no such thing as defensive wins above replacement, or offensive wins above replacement.  Only Wins Above Replacement for the whole player and all of their contributions.  dWAR is really just defensive runs above average plus positional adjustment, which always needs to be put in context of the player's hitting, baserunning and proclivity to avoid double plays. If you want to isolate a player's defensive value, just use their defensive runs above/below average preferably from a variety of sources.  Statcast OAA is almost certainly the best of the metrics.

Why can't dWAR/oWAR be isolated? Aren't wins just a certain number of runs?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't need the metrics. 

Sure, just like you don't need home run totals to tell if a guy is a home run hitter, you can watch him for 20 or 30 games and try to remember if he hit some homers.  You don't need wRC+ or OPS to tell if a guy is a good hitter, just say "sure, Austin Hayes, Mike Trout and Yordan Alvarez are all good hitters, they all regularly bat in the top half of a major league lineup".

But you need metrics if you want to go beyond broad-brush subjective comparisons.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Why can't dWAR/oWAR be isolated? Aren't wins just a certain number of runs?

WAR is wins above replacement.  There is no replacement level individually for offense or defense, without the context of the other (plus baserunning and avoiding DPs).

Here's an example: You have a shortstop who is three runs above average (+3) on defense.  Do you play him at shortstop over another guy who is -3 on defense? You can't answer that question without the rest of his contributions.  If the first player is Mark Belanger as a hitter and a runner, and the second is Cal Ripken, you play Cal.  If the first player has a .625 OPS and is an average runner and the second hits like a pitcher, you play the first guy.

"Replacement Level" is the level where there is usually freely available talent. Guys just hanging out in AAA unable to regularly get a callup on a decent team.  You can't make that decision without the totality of the player's contributions. Nobody makes playing time decisions just based on defense*.

The only way dWAR has any meaning is if you assume average hitting/baserunning/DPs.   Or alternately, if you're comparing two players with dWAR you have to assume they have the same hitting/baserunning/DPs. But instead of going through those mental gymnastics you should just look at the whole player, or just use defensive runs above/below average.

* Okay, they do for pitchers.  No one cares about how pitchers hit or run or really even field, not even in a non-DH league.  But they're the special case.

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Sure, just like you don't need home run totals to tell if a guy is a home run hitter, you can watch him for 20 or 30 games and try to remember if he hit some homers.  You don't need wRC+ or OPS to tell if a guy is a good hitter, just say "sure, Austin Hayes, Mike Trout and Yordan Alvarez are all good hitters, they all regularly bat in the top half of a major league lineup".

But you need metrics if you want to go beyond broad-brush subjective comparisons.

For the most part defensive metrics suck.   They said Markakis was a below average fielder which was not true.  They didn't like Jones even when he was healthy.    What it comes down to is the defensive metrics are inaccurate.   Offensively stats are much better.

Frobby looks at a bunch of defensively stats because they are so inaccurate he doesn't trust any one of them.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

For the most part defensive metrics suck.   They said Markakis was a below average fielder which was not true.  They didn't like Jones even when he was healthy.    What it comes down to is the defensive metrics are inaccurate.   Offensively stats are much better.

Frobby looks at a bunch of defensively stats because they are so inaccurate he doesn't trust any one of them.

Eyes are worse than metrics

[Aristotelian]

35 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

"Replacement Level" is the level where there is usually freely available talent. Guys just hanging out in AAA unable to regularly get a callup on a decent team.  You can't make that decision without the totality of the player's contributions. Nobody makes playing time decisions just based on defense*.

The only way dWAR has any meaning is if you assume average hitting/baserunning/DPs.   Or alternately, if you're comparing two players with dWAR you have to assume they have the same hitting/baserunning/DPs. But instead of going through those mental gymnastics you should just look at the whole player, or just use defensive runs above/below average.

* Okay, they do for pitchers.  No one cares about how pitchers hit or run or really even field, not even in a non-DH league.  But they're the special case.

That makes sense. I would say however you could quantify how much of a player's overall WAR comes from their offensive versus defensive value. oWAR/dWAR isn't quite the right name but it's something. I agree runs/outs is better.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Eyes are worse than metrics

Your eyes maybe.

[sportsfan8703]

We said it in all the Mateo talk all offseason is that if he just more steady there could be lots of upside. Well he’s done that. Even if is his only top ten in the MLB in defense, that’s still a big step up from what we have. 
 

Mateo is getting close to putting up a big  overall WAR total without any changes. If he can just hit a little better, maybe bunt, and keep stealing bags. 
 

I know old school baseball, but if he’s hitting 9th and Mullins is up, there should be big time pressure on the IF defense. Defense can’t shift as much, and they all have to play a step in because of Mullins” speed.