Heston Kjerstad 2022

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Kjerstad had 81 extra base hits -- including 36 HRs --  in 148 college games, so he had to have been putting the ball in the air while playing for Arkansas. Do we know if the Orioles have attempted to modify his swing in such a way that he'd produce fewer fly balls as a pro? 

I doubt they are doing anything but just letting him play right now.

I think it’s fair to assume that some power and timing left him and that he is still working his way back to get it.  Nothing wrong with that considering the time he has been off.

Moving him to Aberdeen certainly won’t help with the power department but I would like to see him go against better pitching.  TBH, I wouldn’t even mind if they skipped Aberdeen for him and just sent him right to AA.   It’s aggressive but he isn’t some HS kid who they are trying to work back into things.  

[btdart20]

9 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

The massive GO/AO ratio is really interesting to me, a 3-1 groundout to flyout shouldn't speak to the success his current numbers show. I wonder if it's wonky recording by MiLB scorers or if he's just scorching worm-burners and low line drives. I know this has been brought up before but a 3/1 GO/AO ratio is unusual for a power hitter. 

https://www.milb.com/player/heston-kjerstad-677008

Yelich comes to mind.

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Watched the game tonight and he's jumped on mostly first pitch fastballs. He did turn around a 97 mph fastball for a single up the middle, so plenty of bat speed.

That’s fine.  But if he’s ambushing first pitch FB, he needs to be promoted to where pitchers have other offerings.  He needs a challenge to grow as a hitter.

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Kjerstad had 81 extra base hits -- including 36 HRs --  in 148 college games, so he had to have been putting the ball in the air while playing for Arkansas. Do we know if the Orioles have attempted to modify his swing in such a way that he'd produce fewer fly balls as a pro? 

That seems very unlikely.

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

That seems very unlikely.

It's unlikely that the organization would intend for Kjerstad to put fewer balls in the air, but that still might be the end result of changes they might have advised him to make in his swing. Just seems odd to me that a player who had a normal GB/FB ratio* in college would become extreme one way or the other as a pro. 

 

* Do we know what his GB/FB ratio was at Arkansas? I'm assuming it wasn't out of the norm or else Elias wouldn't have drafted him so high. 

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

It's unlikely that the organization would intend for Kjerstad to put fewer balls in the air, but that still might be the end result of changes they might have advised him to make in his swing. Just seems odd to me that a player who had a normal GB/FB ratio* in college would become extreme one way or the other as a pro. 

 

* Do we know what his GB/FB ratio was at Arkansas? I'm assuming it wasn't out of the norm or else Elias wouldn't have drafted him so high. 

I doubt they tweaked his swing and I'm sure he hit more fly balls at Arkansas.   He's been out for 2 years.  It's actually kind of amazing that he's hitting almost .450 and I don't care if it was rookie ball.    As well as he's hitting I know he's probably not 100% back.   His timing, not just his bat, but his whole body, is probably not quite back to what it was.   It's just a matter of time.   He's hit two homers to the opposite field.  When he figures it out, we'll see a bunch go to RF.    

[LookinUp]

I love the hard contact, but agree that lifting the ball is critical.

I'm more concerned with seeing that happen then with where that happens, though Delmarva certainly doesn't seem like a challenge. 

[Frobby]

I am not even the slightest bit concerned about Kjerstad’s GB rate.  The dude is hitting .446 with a 1.155 OPS!   I’m sure he’ll elevate some balls eventually but he fact that he’s healthy, and his timing is largely unaffected by the 2+ year layoff is just fantastic news.   

After this weekend, please get him to Aberdeen.    
 

[Tony-OH]

Watching him jump on these first pitch fastballs for hard groundball singles is fine, but I think he needs to be challenged by tougher pitchers. I'm not worried about his ground ball rate either, but I do think it's not going to help him to just jump on the obvious mistake pitches from poor Low A ball pitchers.

He's had enough PAs for his timing, now it's time to challenge him a bit at Aberdeen.

[celery]

I think I need someone to pump the breaks for me.

 

Kjerstad in 90 PAs in Delmarva:

.446/.533/.622

 

Cowser in 124 PAs in Delmarva:

.347/.476/.429

 

I've kept my expectations for Kjerstad so low, especially for this year, that his performance so far is really exciting.

Is Kjerstad a top 50 prospect by the end of the season?

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, celery said:

I think I need someone to pump the breaks for me.

 

Kjerstad in 90 PAs in Delmarva:

.446/.533/.622

 

Cowser in 124 PAs in Delmarva:

.347/.476/.429

 

I've kept my expectations for Kjerstad so low, especially for this year, that his performance so far is really exciting.

Is Kjerstad a top 50 prospect by the end of the season?

If Kjerstad can make his way up to AA by the end of this season while putting up good numbers, I do think we'll see him regain his prospect status. Perhaps back of the top 100 unless he really takes off with power as the season progresses.

[rudyrooster]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I am not even the slightest bit concerned about Kjerstad’s GB rate.  The dude is hitting .446 with a 1.155 OPS!   I’m sure he’ll elevate some balls eventually but he fact that he’s healthy, and his timing is largely unaffected by the 2+ year layoff is just fantastic news.   

After this weekend, please get him to Aberdeen.    
 

Thank you Frobby.  A voice of reason in this jungle. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, celery said:

Is Kjerstad a top 50 prospect by the end of the season?

Aberdeen, Bowie and Arizona success could get him there.    Polished NCAA bat drafted 2nd overall probably gets slotted there on default.

What's happening now...flirting with we might as well see what Ryan Mountcastle could do in the complexes.    Or Juan Soto on a Georgia high school team.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, rudyrooster said:

Thank you Frobby.  A voice of reason in this jungle. 

Who is not talking reasonable in this thread?

[Frobby]

I want to put a little numerical perspective on this ground ball issue.  Kjerstad’s GO/AO ratio is 3.33.   He’s had 74 at bats, 33 hits and 16 strikeouts.  That means he’s had 19 ground outs and only 6 air outs in 20 games played.  He’s grounding out once per game, basically.  

None of this says anything about whether his 33 hits have been line drives to the OF or ground singles.    They could be 80% line drives for all we know.  We do know for sure that he’s got 2 homers and 7 doubles among his 33 hits.  The two homers clearly weren’t grounders, and it’s doubtful that most of the doubles were.   

So, for me the long and short of it is the GO/AO thing is a very minor gripe at this point.   I’m really happy with what he’s done in Delmarva, and anxious to see what he can do against higher level pitchers, hopefully starting next week.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Well at least we don't have to worry about Aberdeen park factor sapping his power.