Halfway to 74 wins?

[Frobby]

Before the year began I pegged the O’s as a 65-70 win team, but honestly, I thought I was reaching a little.   Now at the halfway mark they’re on a 74-win pace.  Can they match it in the second half?

I certainly think the offense is capable of equaling or exceeding its first half production.  Rutschman is going to hit more in the second half, and the others are all not out of line with their capabilities.

The pitching?   I feel like I’ve said this in post after post -  that’s what’s going to decide how our season goes.  I feel like the bullpen has done as well as couid be humanly expected, Lopez’s rough patch notwithstanding.  They won’t do any better, and easily could do worse.   The starters are a volatile group and anything could happen with them. 

All in all, it was a very encouraging first half and I’m looking forward to the next 81 games.  

 

[wildcard]

My guess at this point is 78 wins.   37 for the first half and 41 for the 2nd.  The O's half been playing .500 ball for two months so they could keep doing that.

[forphase1]

I think we end up in the 76 to 80 win range.   I think we can continue playing roughly .500 ball the rest of the year,  hopefully with some of the AAA talent coming up and performing at least as good as who they replace. It's amazing we are playing so well with so many holes in the lineup from the infield players and the number of at bats McKenna has had lately.

[ChuckS]

Just replacing the Odor/Mateo/Nevin group with Urias and some combination of Vavra/Westburg/Henderson could do wonders for the lineup.

We are solid 1 through 6 so replacing those sub .200 bats with better players could suddenly turn our offense into a bit of a juggernaut.  I expect better offense at a minimum in the second half. 

[sportsfan8703]

37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My guess at this point is 78 wins.   37 for the first half and 41 for the 2nd.  The O's half been playing .500 ball for two months so they could keep doing that.

41-40 would be awesome and a stepping stone. I’ll take anything over 35 wins, just because it means we didn’t completely fall apart. 

[maybenxtyr]

They have been far better than I expected during the first half. It's going to come down to the pitching if they can win 35-40 over the course of the second half. 

 

Hopefully we see some debuts too in the coming weeks to a month.

[Sports Guy]

What they do at the deadline and how the young guys they bring up adjust to the majors will probably tell the story.

If I had to guess, I would set the O/U at 70.5…and I think the right bet is to take the under but I do think 70-75 wins is possible.

[Aristotelian]

I think they could have done better with Grayson and Means. Now Means is out and Grayson is looking unlikely to provide much, if anything. We could get a boost from Westburg and Gunnar, plus Adley is only getting better. I think 74 is a good target. 

[OriolesMagic83]

At the beginning of the year, I just wanted the O's to avoid 100 losses. I thought that had a 50-50 chance of happening.  My actual guess was around 65 wins if I remember right.  The bullpen has been amazing.  Best since the playoff years.  The starting pitching was decent early, then started to fall apart from all the injuries.  It seems to have somewhat stabilized and could be average whem Means and GrayRod are back and healthy.  All the inept hitters in the bottom of the lineup will hopefully be replaced when Elias starts caling prospects up.  I'm predicting 70-80 wins.  The wide range depends on how many deadline trades are made and how soon prospects are called up.

[Matt Bennett]

Incredible how much more fun a .450% ball club is to watch than a .333% ballclub. 

I think the rotation will hold us back from seriously flirting with .500. And we aren’t good enough to be buyers and patch it up. But the lineup is really coming together. Just a few infield prospects hitting .300 in Norfolk away. 

[nevadaO]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What they do at the deadline and how the young guys they bring up adjust to the majors will probably tell the story.

If I had to guess, I would set the O/U at 70.5…and I think the right bet is to take the under but I do think 70-75 wins is possible.

As a gambler I'd say this is spot on. Way ahead of, I should say, the over 63½ I bet before the season started.

They are doing well, yes, but who they move and who they're replaced with (and in essence, how they do) is the key here. 

If our pitchers are still doing well one would imagine some of them would be moved. How much that hurts will be determined, but after years and years of watching this team I'd say that 69 is about where I'd put them, assuming some moves are made while others aren't, and growing pains for those that replaced those on the way out.

70½ is also quite reasonable, but we still have a lot of games against the AL East, so I try not to get too hopeful. 

[now]

Hitting will probably improve, but sketchy starters and historic bullpen are destined to average down. Especially if the bullpen falls off it will cost a lot of those close wins we have enjoyed in the first half (Lopez exhibit A). On the other hand the offense will recover some of those close losses. So as always, the starters are the bottom line. I predict 70 W.

[foxfield]

Hopefully we will maintain this pace of getting better.  My hope has been 67 wins since that was halfway to 82 from 52.  That the O's are ahead of that pace is exciting.  I think they can hold pace for 74 even with trading.  But the end result is still going to hinge on pitching.  

I am holding at 67 and will be happy with that result.  But it definitely seems like less of a reach than it did in March.   72-74 would not be shocking and above 74 would be really nice.  

For perspective, getting to 82 wins would be an improvement of 30 games.  While not likely, it isn't impossible.  In 2008 the Rays, with ROY Evan Longoria, went from 66 wins to 97 wins before losing in the WS to the Phillies.  

The Orioles could win 82 games and may not escape last place in the AL East.  The road is long, with many a winding turn. 

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

Incredible how much more fun a .450% ball club is to watch than a .333% ballclub. 

 

Interesting, I was told in the offseason that 60ish wins or 75 wins didn’t matter.  

[Yardball85]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What they do at the deadline and how the young guys they bring up adjust to the majors will probably tell the story.

If I had to guess, I would set the O/U at 70.5…and I think the right bet is to take the under but I do think 70-75 wins is possible.

Yep.  Hopefully they can find some value for Santander, Mancini, and Lopez.  Get Stowers up playing regularly, give Diaz a chance, and hopefully see a debut of one or more of Vavra, Westburg, and Henderson.