Longenhagen draft rankings

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Here are the positional adjustments over a 162-game season, used in calculating the Fangraphs version of WAR (fWAR) and the Baseball-Reference version of WAR (rWAR) for position players. The format is Position: fWAR — rWAR

Catcher: +12.5 runs — +9 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs — +7 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs — +2.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs — + 2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs — + 2 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs — -7 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs — - 7 runs
First Base: -12.5 runs — -9.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs — - 15 runs

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Here are the positional adjustments over a 162-game season, used in calculating the Fangraphs version of WAR (fWAR) and the Baseball-Reference version of WAR (rWAR) for position players. The format is Position: fWAR — rWAR

Catcher: +12.5 runs — +9 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs — +7 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs — +2.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs — + 2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs — + 2 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs — -7 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs — - 7 runs
First Base: -12.5 runs — -9.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs — - 15 runs

Thanks for putting that all in one spot.  So the difference between SS and 2B is 5 runs, or about .5 WAR.   For me that’s significant but doesn’t disqualify a guy you think will end up at 2B, so long as (1) the bat justifies it, and (2) the guy is expected to be solid at 2B, not just a stiff with a glove there.  

[seak05]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for putting that all in one spot.  So the difference between SS and 2B is 5 runs, or about .5 WAR.   For me that’s significant but doesn’t disqualify a guy you think will end up at 2B, so long as (1) the bat justifies it, and (2) the guy is expected to be solid at 2B, not just a stiff with a glove there.  

For me it's part of the argument for Holiday over Lee or Johnson, BUT it's also why I don't discount Lee or Johnson, especially when comparing to Jones. And why I'd be fine with taking Holiday over Jones as BPA (and fine with the reverse as well, or any of the other players mentioned)

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for putting that all in one spot.  So the difference between SS and 2B is 5 runs, or about .5 WAR.   For me that’s significant but doesn’t disqualify a guy you think will end up at 2B, so long as (1) the bat justifies it, and (2) the guy is expected to be solid at 2B, not just a stiff with a glove there.  

But the key is SS. Holiday likely sticks there and if so, makes him very valuable, after Jones. 

[WI O’s Fan]

Interesting that Joe Doyle with Baseball Prospect states the 5 name are two hs and three college players.   Jones, Holliday, Lee, Parada, and Berry.

[OriolesMagic83]

Latest prospects live mock draft has Tidwell dropping to 54th and Whisenhint dropping to 73rd.  If there's any way that happens I hope the O's draft them both.

 

 https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-mock-draft-n78w7-st9r4-wa35p-2n5ls

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, WI O’s Fan said:

Interesting that Joe Doyle with Baseball Prospect states the 5 name are two hs and three college players.   Jones, Holliday, Lee, Parada, and Berry.

I'm going to be really pi$$ed off if the O's chose Parada or Berry.  They just aren't legitimate #1 picks.  I don’t think they are even top 5 picks.

[RZNJ]

6 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm going to be really pi$$ed off if the O's chose Parada or Berry.  They just aren't legitimate #1 picks.  I don’t think they are even top 5 picks.

I think Parada has been mocked to the Nationals a lot.  Berry usually in the 7-10 range.

The O's are big on exit velocities and how players performed on team U.S.A.  The two best performers on that team were Berry and Gavin Cross.  Cross has big exit velos. Not sure about Berry.

The one player the Orioles really haven't been linked to as having interest is JONES!  Which means  the pick will be Druw Jones.  Most upside. Fits a need.  But cost the most.  This is like the Rutschman draft.  

[baltfan]

8 hours ago, WI O’s Fan said:

Interesting that Joe Doyle with Baseball Prospect states the 5 name are two hs and three college players.   Jones, Holliday, Lee, Parada, and Berry.

No way it is Berry.  No way. Makes zero sense given the system.  Parada I don’t buy either but the Orioles should have taken Posey when they had Weiters, so maybe that is a way to look at it. 

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, baltfan said:

No way it is Berry.  No way. Makes zero sense given the system.  Parada I don’t buy either but the Orioles should have taken Posey when they had Weiters, so maybe that is a way to look at it. 

There is the positional argument against Berry, which is huge, but some consider him the best hit/power combination in college.  The bat had better be elite if it’s him.  That would be a huge gamble.  I don’t see it.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There is the positional argument against Berry, which is huge, but some consider him the best hit/power combination in college.  The bat had better be elite if it’s him.  That would be a huge gamble.  I don’t see it.

That would be a bad pick at 1:1. Awful. He’s a DH, kyle shwarber type. 

[OriolesMagic83]

49 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There is the positional argument against Berry, which is huge, but some consider him the best hit/power combination in college.  The bat had better be elite if it’s him.  That would be a huge gamble.  I don’t see it.

He could be the next Danny Tartabull

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

He could be the next Danny Tartabull

You're not young. Lol

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

You're not young. Lol

Well I remember 1983, so that's true.

[RZNJ]

44 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

That would be a bad pick at 1:1. Awful. He’s a DH, kyle shwarber type. 

It seems like a bad pick. Results matter. If Berry wins a triple crown 3 years from now is it still a bad pick?  SportsGuy doesn't like my hypotheticals because they're not realistic but you get my point.